Reporting the Facts

Note: This is our centennial post.

This probably comes off as fair-weatheredness following a trouncing by the big bats of Philly, but it’s been something I’ve been tracking for two weeks, and it seems to be a trend that is holding. The Astros are a lucky team right now. As you’ll recall, I’ve touched on XW-L formula’s serval times this season, specifically here and here. The ‘Stros currently sit on a 29-23 record, good for 3rd in the NL Central -- a scant 1.5 games behind the first place Cubs. However, using PW-L from The Hardball Times, we see that the NL Central’s standings look a little different. The Astros own a PW-L record of 26-26, the Cubs a 32-18 record. That’s big difference. That’s a meaningful difference too if it’s attributable to luck and luck alone.

Thankfully, I don’t believe it necessarilly is all luck. While the Astros triple split of: .266/.327/.426 is a solid line that has produced a 4.87 R/G, the pitching staff has allowed 4.79 R.G (note: this does not include Sunday’s trouncing, it seemed like it would just skew the data too much). This is why our PW-L recorde calls for us to be a .500 team, which intutitevely makes sense (If you really want to kill the buzz of the Astros contending, you can look at the more detailed adjusted W-L records from Baseball Prospectus. Our saving grace has been our ability to make our hits count which is evident by our NL leading BA/RISP of .286 compared to our actuall .266 AVG. 50+ games into the season, it seems fair to say that we much just have some sort of element of clutchness on our team (something that might just acount for the difference in our W-L and adjusted W-L records). However, our entire pitching staff’s inability to keep the ball in the park, stands to wreck our offense’s chances of winning balls games for us, as we continue to lead MLB with 1.4 HR/9. Combined with below averagae K/9 and BB/9, the HR have to stop or it won't matter how good our bats and gloves are.

It just food for thought, something to keep an eye on and be aware of. We’ve seen some special performances so far this season and it’s a team with the talent to keep pulling it off. Our pitching has to hold or we’ll become a .500 team with no real shot at contending quickly (or worse of you look at the 3rd order wins at BPro). I believe the ‘Stros are contenders, but I felt like I owed it to anyone who reads this blog to apprise them of what the numbers say.

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2nd 10 Game Recap: Finding Solid Ground

Since we waited an extra day, you guys get a bonus 11 Game Recap...that also means we get to do less work the next time around (9 games).

In this eleven game span, we’ve been 6-5, a marked improvement from the last time we reported in this fashion. Our XW-L is 10-11 on the season, while we really stand at 9-12. Things seem to have evened out in the luck department -- just slightly the opposite of what we’d hoped for, but hey, we should still be a win better than we are. AND if you look at the NL Central’s XW-L record, we’re only trailing the Cubs by 3.5 games (Cubs XW-L 13-7). So, 21 games in, we’re still in the thick of it -- in theory.

Aside from XW-L records, what can the numbers tell us about our team and how they’ve been playing 21 games into the season.

We’ll shake things up this time and lead-off with:

Starting Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	GB%	E(W)	E(L)
Last 11 Games	58.7	4	3	45	22	6.90	2.05	4.76	.290	44%	3.9	3.8
1st 10 Games	58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	4.03	.303	44%	1.9	3.7
2008	116.7	4	7	81	40	6.25	2.03>	4.40	.305	44%	7	7

In the last 11 games, we’ve seen our starters BABIP fall right in line with the league average, which is good, however, it is important to note that in that time frame, Backe’s BABIP in this was .327, which is easily explained by/explains his poor outing in Philly. It is frustrating to have an overall record of 4-7 for your starters, when they’ve pitched well enough to be 7-7, but we’ll leave much of that analysis for the bull pen. Our peripherals have been remarkably consistent, which is an early indicator that what we’re seeing so far, is probably what we’re going to get, with the exception. Of course, with the exception of Roy who should continue averaging out his poor start with performances more in line with his talent, as we mentioned earlier.

Relief Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	BB/9	H/9
Last 11 Games	37.7	2	2	2	35	12	8.36	2.91	4.78	.293	2.87	9.8
1st 10 Games	27	3	3	1	19	12	6.33	2.03	5.67	.379	4	12.33
2008	64.7	5	5	3	54	24	7.52	2.25	5.15	.328	3.34	10.86

The W, L, and Saves columns are pretty straight forward, if you’ve been watching the games. The two columns that should give every Astros fan hope is the BABIP, K/9, and K/BB. Our peripherals have improved dramatically in the last 11 games compared to the first and the BABIP has dropped to a very sustainable level. While a 4.76 ERA is certainly not what everyone was hoping from this bull pen, it is necessary to note that if you take away Brocail’s shelling last night, the ERA probably isn’t all that bad. What I am trying to say is, things seem to be stabilizing and at this stable state, the Astros’ bull pen looks solid.

Hitting
Stats	PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
Last 12 Games	426	66	13	61	41	62	.286	.357	.809	.167	1.51
1st 10 Games	339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65
2008	765	102	24	95	63	118	.261	.325	.764	.177	1.87

For those who've been keeping up, sorry that it took an extra day to get the hitting data in. Due to our ineptitude, we're giving you a bonus game in the hitting because the method we're using to get the stats can't spit out specific game sets...our bad. But in the end, it's probably good because it gives us a chance to see what the Astros have been doing as they began to heat up. The stat that immediately pops out is the .OBP which is a tremendous .357 -- for a team OBP that's outstanding. The leading indicator, if you're going to simply choose a single stat, for run production is OBP, because you can't score anyone if they're not on base -- unless Adam Dunn is all nine of your hitters and just crushing solo shots. While that team OBP seems high, in reality it shouldn't fall too much. Last time, we reported that our projected team OBP is .344, meaning we shouldn't see too much of a drop off in run production. While it correlates to OBP, our vastly decreased K:BB ratio for our hitters is also a number that portends to more good things, because it indicates that our hitters are being very patient and selective -- hopefully that holds. There is reason to believe that it will as the number of PA our team has is inching close to most of these stats becoming statistically significant. Run production during this period has averaged 5.5 runs a game, which, again, utilizing an RC/27 formula, we predicted the line-up should produce about 5.1 runs/per game. So all in all, it appears that our hitters are beginning to settle in and perform at their true talent levels. Thus, while it is improbable to believe that the team will keep notching 8+ runs a game, we should see a steady stream of 5-6 run games as we move forward, which as the pitchers find their grove should put us in the position to stay in contention in the NL Central.

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What's Luck got do to with it?

Thinking about Cve's quote of the night from last night (see below), I decided to check the Astros X W-L, which as MLB computes is: Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82)). Currently the Astros have an X W-L of 4-4. Which means we should have an extra win, or should we?

The formula MLB uses was created by legendary Sabermetrics guru, Bill James. It gives us an approximation of how a team should have performed. There are, of course, limitations to X W-L and one has to look no further than the 2007 Diamondbacks to see that (90-72 W-L to 79-83 X W-L). The Diamondbacks played a lot of very close ball games last year, which is why Jose Valverde was able to lead the National League in saves. In comparing the Diamondbacks W-L to X W-L we can see they were either very lucky or very clutch -- where you fall depends on whether you believe clutchness exists or does not (click the link if you really want to make up your mind).

So with that in mind, and with Cve's thought that the Astros seem to have the tools to be a slightly above average team (which is all it takes to win the NL Central) in mind, what does that ellusive win that the Astros should have represent? I assert that it in fact represents bad luck. For the Astros to be successful this season, a lot of things will have to go our way. Backe and Wandy have to pitch career years, Roy has to be Roy (which he hasn't been so far), and our hitters have to hit well and all of that has to occur simultaneously. That simultaneous provision is the luck factor that I feel accounts for that 1 win we are deficit. Thus far, it has been hit or miss as far as it all coming together, but if that win we are deficit is truly just a result of bad luck, then I think we're ok. Why? Because luck evens out over time (see the law of large numbers, or averages). We've seen all of those factors I discussed so far this season, we just haven't seen the together so far. If they exist, then they should; and when they do, X W-L says, so far, that we should be a .500 team.

Who knows, with a little luck in our favor, we're a few wins above .500 and maybe, just maybe, we're in a play-off hunt. Of course, I am looking waaaaaaayyyyy to far into the futher as we have only played 8 games, but it's food for thought none the less. So I guess Cve's fundamental question of whether have "faith and hope" in the Astros is too loyal or not can't be answered yet, but lady luck has a lot do with it. So, do we feel lucky? Do we? (Sorry, that was a poorly done Clint Eastwood reference).

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