Examining the Wizard: Long Balls and Luck

**UPDATE - Links Fixed, I hate Blogger**

So I found another tool to throw at the Roy Oswalt mystery. It’s called Hit Tracker and it’s an incredible tool. Basically, it corrects for wind, atmospherics, and probably some more stuff, to say how far the ball would have traveled. It then categorizes HR by the following categories:

No Doubters - the HR cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence.

Just Enough - the HR cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet and landed less than once fence height length beyond the fence. It’s just snuck out.

Lucky - the HR wouldn’t have gotten out if it had been hit on 70 degree, calm day.

Plenty - Not a Just Enough or No Doubter HR.

So with that in mind, lets look at the 18 HR that Roy Oswalt has allowed, because, as we noted, he’s been especially unlucky with the HR ball this year. Given that we’re chalking some of this up to luck, we should expect him to have a fair amount of HR due to luck (i.e. Just Enoughs or Lucky HRs).

Just Enoughs: 3 HR

Plenty but Lucky: 2

Just Enoughs that were Lucky: 1

So, of the 18 HR balls that Roy Oswalt has surrendered, 6 could have just as easily stayed in the park if there was the slightest change in any variable. While this information doesn’t change the fact that Roy has struggled or explain why he has, it does provide credence to the idea that his HR/FB rate is inflated due to luck. Hopefully a Roy Oswalt with a healthy hip abductor and his luck/statistical randomness due to correct will emerge and be an effective Roy Oswalt in the 2nd Half. Perhaps one that decides to wave his no trade clause in the off-season and nets us some top prospects/major league ready players, too.

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Examining the Wizard: Diagnosis

We’ve done A LOT to try and figure out the “hiccups” of Roy Owalt this year. It started in April, continued into May, and then in June, we consulted pitch/fx guru Josh Kalk for some assistance. Evan and I happened to be at the game in which the Wizard hurled some magic before succumbing to a hip abductor strain. We were on a homework assignment, of sorts, that night.

In response to the Kalk assisted Roy Oswalt article, Evan and I were asked by a member of the HBT staff to try and explain why Roy had suddenly become so ineffective from the stretch. I had noted that all but three of his HR allowed, at the time, had come while in the stretch, but failed to emphasis how low his LOB% was compared to his career numbers. In ’05, ’06, and ’07 Roy Oswalt had a 78% LOB%, in 2008, so far, he sports a 70.8% LOB%. That’s a large drop off and would be indicative (as I alluded to) an issue from him pitching from the stretch. So at the game, we were trying to pick up on any minute differences, but since the eyes aren’t well equipped for such an exercise, we saw nothing of note. I almost wrote of the idea that, mechanically, something was off with Roy until he left the game.

So, we have to ask ourselves, how long has Roy been dealing with a hip that just hasn’t felt right? Or, what has Roy been doing differently all season from the stretch, to bring on this injury?

I’m not qualified to say anything remotely intelligent about that, but those are the two things that went through my head when I read this from injury expert Will Carroll, in response to whether Roy’s cortisone injection was to help speed the recovery of a temporary issue:

The odd phrasing in discussion of this, both by the team and by Astros writers, was that the injection was designed to "get him through the season." If the injection has this specific design, is there an underlying problem that will need correction in the off-season, or is this just an odd turn of phrase by Wade that was passed on in the articles? I'm relatively sure it's the former.

Having had my fair share of cortisone injections, I can sum how they work pretty well: They make whatever the affected area is feel like it’s at 120% strength for a few days, then like it’s 100-90% for a week or two, and by the time you get to about six weeks out, you’re probably worse off then when you started. Why? Because you were able to do overdue everything because you couldn’t feel what you were doing. In my mind, a cortisone injection is a last ditch option for desperate times. Roy Oswalt’s situation with the Astros is not desperate, nor is there a need for last ditch attempts at getting Roy start a game before the All-Star break. If anything, the Astros need Roy Oswalt to get healthy, pitch very well to finish the season, and then try and move him in the off season for the maximum amount of blue-chip prospects they can obtain. But, more to the point of connecting the dots, if there is a larger issue at hand, which Carroll suggests, then we have to wonder if this is the princess’ pea that has brought on Roy Oswalt’s pitching struggles this year. To me, it sounds very plausible, but I also just desperately want to find an answer.

As bothersome as the ineptitude with which the Astros seem to be handling this issue is, what’s more bothersome is the overall issue that the Astros have with keeping pitchers healthy. It seems that if you come up through our system or spend a decent period of time with the team, you’re bound to start getting nagging (read mechanical related) injuries or you’re going to have a major surgery. Here’s quick list of the top of my head:

1)Backe
2) Hirsch
3)Patton
4)Albers
5)Nieve
6)Paulino
7)Roy Oswalt

And that is just they last two years. The Astros are an organization with a lot of problems, they have bloated contracts at the major league level, the worst farm system, and apparently the inability to maintain and develop their most prized pieces, pitchers, effectively or at all. Again, I can’t speak to the quality of the Astros medical staff, but I can generalize about the Astros organizational approach to the health of its players: it doesn’t make very good, long-term decisions about how proceed when hiccups, nags, and other injuries that pop up during the course of a season. They love to push the envelope too much because, in the organizations view, every year is 2005. I know that reading around from baseball injury analysts, I never hear good things about the Astros organizational approach to injuries and injury prevention and that’s a problem that the Astros can ill afford moving forward.

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Astros' Fire Sale 2008

A few days late and a few dollars short (does it work like that?), but it’s better than nothing. Saturday morning, I opened the Chronicle to find Steve Campbell’s piece gracing the bottom of the Sports section’s front page. I read the title, "Forsaking all to serve youth an empty answer" and I actually though it looked interesting and looked forward to it, foolishly.

I’ll start this off with a little quote from the article. It should be sufficient to demonstrate that it truly takes persistence, not talent to become a journalist.

“A 4-3 victory over the Rays on Friday won't stop the clamor to strip-mine the roster and start anew. Wouldn't it be invigorating and exhilarating to watch a young team grow up together the way the Rays have?
No. No. A thousand times no.
The Astros can — and should — restock their cupboard without giving up on the rest of the decade..”

My question (and I hope your question) is: How do they accomplish that task Steve? If he know’s that, then every owner in MLB should be clamoring for him to become their GM.

I’ll provide you another Steve Quote from this article, “Yes, the Astros look awful. No, it’s not time for a fire sale.”

“No, I don't see any impending signs of a miraculous turnaround this season. At the same time, I wouldn't be so eager to give up on 2009, 2010 and 2011. If McLane were to change his mind and decide to auction off his marketable players for prospects, the Astros would be doomed to some truly dark and dreary days.”

And what will the Astros be during those seasons if nothing is done? We’re not the second to last rated farm system because there are just 28 really, really good farm systems ahead of us -- it’s actually because it’s terrible. So Mr. Campbell is really saying this, “The Astros are totally screwed in 2008, the trades didn’t bring in enough offense to offset historically bad pitching. At the same time, I think if we just keep things they way they are: let Carlos Lee get a year older and at least 15 lbs. bigger, Lance’s legs a year older, Tejada a full THREE years older, and Roy’s arm a year more fatigued, then that way the supporting cast of characters can come around and we’ll be a play off contender.” Think about that, really. This team looks like it’s about a 72 - 90 team. Maybe it’ll be 75 - 87, what a thrill. If things improve next year (meaning we’re not using Brian Moheler as our number four starter) then who knows, we might break into the 80 win territory, but who cares. This team isn’t a play-off contention team for the next three years, nor is it a winning team. So the rest of the decade’s a wash anyway Steve-O.

Campbell notes that Bourn and Towles have yet to develop and that Roy just has been off (of course, readers of this blog know that, given our last look at Roy). Brilliant Steve. So if our Rookies didn’t need a learning curve and Roy didn’t get snake bit, we’d probably be better. It sounds very reasonable, here’s the thing though: when Roy was at his worst and so were Bourn and Towles, we were winning games. Even with Bourn doing much better, Roy getting over his luck or statistical noise, and Towles maybe hitting, we still have three other starters that offer not an ounce of consistency. Moheler is our fourth stater. Moehler is our fourth starter and injury has nothing to do with it. So, while it might be possible that the next two years could see improved offenses, there seems to be ZERO means of shoring up pitching enough to allow for us to field a winning team (see the Detroit Tigers).

We’re screwed if we sit with these guys and hope that something breaks our way in the next two years and allows us to salvage a good season out of our pieces. To do so, would require spending a lot more money on free agents (thus losing draft picks) or trading away what prospects this farm system might produce in the next year or so. The latter is very unlikely given that it would require either our entire first 10 rounds of this years draft or...nope just that, to land a player in a trade. We’re without a proven catching option for the next three years at least (but, in fairness I think Towles will come around), we have NO starting pitching and we’ll still have a walrus in left field making $20 million. This is what Steve Campbell doesn’t want us to forsake. Following Steve’s advice we’d hang onto Wandy Rodriguez, who’s inconsistent at times, but who’s talented left arm could net a bounty of prospects from a team like New York. He’d probably be up and arms about trading away Jose Valverde, who’s capabilities as a closer are both wasted by a team who’s bound to finish in the bottom half of their league and misused by a manager too dumb to know better, yet would command another beautiful bounty of young talent. If it were possible still, I’d trade Roy to any team that’d give us something of note. This is for two reasons:

1) We need the talent
2) It’d be a shame to let Roy’s career be forced to wither and die in the muck that will be the Houston Astros, when the man could chase a ring.

The Chronicle writers have, by in large, been obsessed with trading the trifecta of Roy, Carlos, and Lance, all of whom aren’t going anywhere. Maybe Roy, as he’s said he’d opt of his no trade clause if and only if he could get an extension to whomever he’s traded to. Carlos is fat, not hitting spectacularly, and owed $80 million over the next few years. This means that only the Yankees could possibly trade for him, as they’re the only team with money that I can think would possibly be stupid enough to trade for him. Lance, has said emphatically he’ll never leave the Astros and I believe that. So they’re all pretty much moot points. So I hope they stop. I also hope they stop using terrible logic to defend not trading anything we can to bring in young, viable talent. Next year, Miggy, Carlos, Lance, and Roy will command a combined $60 million, therefore we have to find a way to field a team in reasonable payroll parameters. Fans will turn away from this team if they're a 90 loss team no matter what the average age or payroll of the roster is.

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Examining the Wizard: Roy Oswalt, a Case Study in Luck

Today, I was excited to see this article from The Hardball Times. For those of you who are too lazy to click the link and read the article, I’ll quickly summarize. The article looked at pitchers who were the unluckiest so far this season; measuring their rate stats against league averages to define unlucky. Astros fans should not be surprised to find out that Roy Oswalt was the most unlucky pitcher in terms of HR/FB (Home Runs per Fly Ball), posting an absolutely astounding 21.05% HR/FB so far this season. The article by, Derek Carty, goes on to normalize Oswalt’s (and the other pitchers listed in the article’s) outlandish rates stats back to league average levels, plug it into a very complex formula, and determine Oswalt (and company’s) LIPS ERA (Luck Independent ERA). Carty finds that by normalizing Roy Oswalt’s HR/FB back to league-average, Roy Oswalt owns a LIPS ERA of 4.08. Not an outstanding ERA, but I don’t think any Astros fan would quibble with having Roy Oswalt’s ERA be 1.30 earned runs lower.

The LIPS ERA concept works, because by-in-large, things like BABIP, HR/FB, and LD% are largely beyond the pitcher’s control (See above linked articles and this one for supporting evidence). However, what does the knowledge that Roy Oswalt has been unlucky tell Astros fans, or fantasy owners for that matter, about what to expect? Thankfully, Derek Carty again, provides some insight into a favored term bandied on this blog “the law of averages” or “regression to the mean”. Once again, for those to lazy to click the link, essentially we can expect Roy Oswalt to surrender HR/FB at a rate consistent with his career levels from here on out, meaning somewhere around 9% HR/FB, ( he’s never exceeded 12.9%).

To dig further than just discussions of luck and regression to the mean, I was graciously given Roy Oswalt’s pitch-result data from the talented and majestic Josh Kalk. Honestly, I cannot thank him enough for helping me, who knows absolutely nothing about database coding, for providing this data. While I had just about anything you’d ever want to know (and a lot you wouldn’t about) Roy Oswalt’s every pitch in 2008; save his last two starts (tonight’s start included) due to when I actually obtained the info. I’ve isolated only the pitches that resulted in HR, since that’s what we’re looking at (click here for an explanation of the data):



Quickly, here are the pitch averages for all of the available data on Roy Oswalt for 2007:



And then his 2008 pitch averages:



Clearly, movement is down on his Fastball (FB) and slider this year. Velocity does not seem to be the issue for Roy on his fastball in terms of HR allowed either. Of the 11 FB’s that turned into HR in 2008 for Roy, the average speed was 93.23 MPH (min: 91.62 max: 95.61), so that’s clearly not the issues as evident by just looking at his 2007 average. His movement on the FB’s that turned into HR: -4.09 in. X (min: -1.44 in. max: -8.16); 6.00 in. Y (min: 1.99 in. max: 10.85). There’s not as much life on the FB’s that became HR this year by comparison to Roy Oswalt’s 2007 numbers and on the whole his movement is just down. This probably explains his overall decline in strikeout related rate stats, but I don’t know that it really explains why he’s just getting crushed so much. However, I get the feeling that 11 FB's is just far to small of a sample size to say anything meaningful about. In fact if anyone can see any clear trait from the FB velocity or movement from the chart that indicates he's doing something that's allowing his HR spike, please speak up.

Note: I’m ignoring the three sliders, because his slider is just God awful this year, but not the issue apparently.

In my last attempt to decipher the enigma that is Roy Oswalt in 2008, I cited the fact that his release point seems excessively bunched, most likely in an effort not to tip his pitches, thus causing him to lose life on his pitches. While my initial conclusion from that observation was that it must be his slider that is getting pounded was wrong, I none the less stand by the observation as providing insight into his struggles to date.

Tonight, however, I am offering another observation. Looking back at Roy Oswalt’s HR pitches, all of but three of the fourteen pitches have one thing in common: men on base. While it is clearly a limited sample size, perhaps either pitching from the stretch, or the distraction of holding runners is causing Roy to throw pitches that are a bit more crushable. Food for thought at least. While it’s not an earth shattering observation, the pitch/fx data of his HR pitches revealed no other apparent trend. Oddly though, his 50/50 split of RHB/LHB going yard is elevated for his career 75/53 RHB/LHB HR split. There wasn’t a meaningful home/road split for the HR’s either.

Having spent the entirety of the game researching and writing this article, we saw some dominant pitching from Roy Oswalt tonight, but the Ryan Braun long ball makes it 17 HR the season. During the post game so far I’ve heard a lot of discussion centering around Roy Oswalt trying to pitch to contact more vs. trying to strike guys out. Our first attempt to discern what was ailing Roy Oswalt revealed little in the way of evidence that Roy was attempting to pitch to contact from his numbers, but there are probably short comings in trying to prove or disprove pitching philosophy from limited statistics. After an exhaustive combing of pitch/fx data, I’m left scratching my head. It seems that although pitch/fx is an incredible tool that is sure to further revolutionize baseball analysis, it also seems to support the assertion that pitchers have little control over their BABIP, DIPS, HR/FB, LD%, etc. If this is the case, we can only have one logical expectation of Roy Oswalt from here on out: that he should pitch in-line with his career numbers. Astros fans should rejoice and fantasy owners should do what they can to acquire him.

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Where there's smoke

We've touched on Cecil Cooper's....er...."unorthodox" (read: silly) managerial moves before (specifically: here, here, here here, and here). He made another last night that could have changed the outcome of a fairly important game, as far as late May divisional games are concerned. Top of the seventh inning, two outs, Hunter Pence is on second base, with the Astros down 3-1. Pence followed Carlos Lee's bomb with sharp single to center but is in danger of being stranded and letting a rare scoring opportunity go by the boards. Roy has pitched pretty well. He overcame some early wildness, to give up only one run over his previous five innings of work. Now, with Cards starter Kyle Lohse on the ropes, Cooper leaves in Oswalt to hit for himself. We all know Roy is a competitor who after throwing only 79 pitches to that point was well within the sensible range of being left out to throw another inning. However, two things make me question this move. The first of which is the fact that Roy has had groin problems recently. Why test it in May? Any shot, and I mean ANY shot this team has to compete for a playoff birth is going to hinge on the right arm and healthy groin(s)of Roy Oswalt. As far as in game management in concerned, unless your starter is throwing an absolute gem at that point, it is probably best to not look a gift scoring opportunity in the mouth.

Another important issue that seems to be rearing it's ugly head is a lack of communication between Oswalt and Cooper. We saw a couple weeks ago that both men may not be on the same page. I'm not trying to insinuate anything at this point, but this is something to keep in the back of our collective mind. AM 790's Craig Roberts cited an unnamed team official who, when asked by Roberts if anything was amiss with the Oswalt/Cooper relationship, said (paraphrasing) "that's not something I'd like to get into at this point." That's never a good thing to hear. A lot of this probably has to do with Roy's struggles thus far. Both seem to be reasonable, team first guys, which gives me confidence this whole episode is nothing blown up into something.

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Examing the Wizard: The May Report

In April, we looked at Roy Oswalts’ struggles and determined that it wasn’t his fastball’s velocity that was hurting him, it was that his curve ball, just simply wasn’t curving. Well over a month has passed, and Roy Oswalt is still sporting a 5.61 ERA. While his ERA is inflated, his K-related rate stats have been solid: 6.9 K/9, 2.94 K/BB. It's the hits and the HR that's are killing him: 11.08 H/9 and 1.96 HR/9.

So, what’s changed? Last time we noted that his curve was flat. Looking again at his pitch/fx data from 2007 and 2008 we can see that there some disticnt changes to Roy’s pitches. The fast ball is 1/2 MPH slower, broke 9.51" down in 2007, but only 7.51" down in 2008. That's a significant amount of elevation to his fastaball. Roy's curve is now breaking as far down as it did 2007 (the red flag we sounded in our last post), but only moving away from RHB 4.33", where as in 2007 it broke 6.69 away, a 2.33" difference. So it's staying closer to RHB and not getting in as much on LHB, both if which makes easier to get wood on. Both of these 2" changes are very much the differnce between a swinging strike or a meekly hit ball, and an absolutely crushed ball. His slider has been even worse. In 2007 it broke 3.74" away from a RHB while dropping 2.46". However, in 2008 it's only breaking 1.86" away from RHB and only dropping 1.78" down -- I believe the term is hanging slider. Yet he’s throwing it at a much higher percentage, 17% this year compared to 14% in 2007. It’s an absolutely crushable pitch, and it might explain his unprecedented 15 HR surrendered.

In attempting to explain why it is that his pitches aren’t breaking as well as the used to, we’ve discerned a small, but perhaps meaninful difference in his release point.

2007 Release Points:


2008 Release Points:



It appears that, perhaps, in an effort not to tip his pitches, Roy is trying keep his release point constant. Our guess is that by tightening it release point up, he’s losing life from his pitches.

So there you go, impress your friends and family with your new found knowledge.

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The Long Ball: Public Enemy Number One

8 HR in two games. Ok that's unfair because 6 came last night and 3 came of Oscar Villareal alone, but still you catch my drift. On a night when Roy was apparently struggling with a his groin, the defense continued to falter some more (or at least it did to me). Two games are nothing to get excited over, but perhaps these two might be. Earlier this week, I highlighted the fact that the Astros were leading the league in surrendering home runs and were playing outstanding defense.

With the Astros in the thick of things, I cautioned that if our pitchers aren't just being the victim of statistical noise (luck) and if the defense slows down as we get into the grind of the season that'd we'd be in big trouble. Tonight our bats were silent after the 1st and the exception, of course, of Lance Berkman. This team won't get anything done without the bats -- no matter what the pitchers or gloves are doing. Now that Bourn is down in the line-up, the line-up feels a lot more like the line-up has in years past: 3 easy outs come 7-8-9. I can't throw any numbers at the this really, but it just the feeling I've got.

While typing this and watching the post game interviews, it was interesting to note the disparity between Coop and Roy's account of the 6th/7th innings. Coop was interviewed first and presented the story as Roy came back into the dugout and wanted to go back out and throw in the 7th. Roy, not five minutes later, said that the groin flared up in the 6th, but he got through it. Then, came into the dugout and told him his night was over, but that they (Coop and the Coaches I assume) asked for him to go back out. I'm not going to point fingers, it was just something caught my attention. Talking with Evan on the phone after the game, we came to the conclusion that even if Roy misses some time, it might not be as bad as it sounds. With no disrespect to Roy, he hasn't exactly been dominant this year (certainly flashes of brilliance, but no real consistently great performances). With Wandy due to return soon, we should manage just fine -- I hope.

Wiggy finally looked good at the plate in his last two AB's. Bourn got a hit, but followed with a CS. Kaz got CS too. I guess tonight, and maybe this series, wasn't our night, or series. Even if we bomb tomorrow's game, we'll finish the road trip with a 6-4 record, which is more than you can ask for from the Astros on the road, on the West Coast, and in Arlington. We open the home stand against the Cubs, which is when the real challenge begins. HR rates and Defensive Zone Ratings aside, this team has got to stick it to their Central rivals if this season will go anywhere.

Homework assignment: Watch and listen for how little attention Lance will get for being on this tear he's on from ESPN. Compare that to home many times A-Rod going yard in his minor league rehab assignment gets talked about.

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Examining the Wizard, 2.0

This past offseason, Astros fans heard quite often that our starting pitching would be a worrisome aspect of our club. Thirteen games in, the rotation has a total of two wins to show for it's otherwise competent work. For instance, every Astro starter has at least one quality start, except for one. Roy Oswalt has started his ninth major league season with an 0-3 record a 9.00 ERA. He has made no admissions about an injury being the cause (although he was hit with a batted ball in his first start against the Padres), and his fastball has been consistently around 93-94 MPH. Oswalt wondered openly whether or not he was tipping his pitches in last Friday’s loss to Florida. Whatever the case may be, Astros fans, Fantasy owners and the team itself are searching for reasons why one of the most consistent pitchers in the game has struggled to open the season.

For the past few years, writers and broadcasters have come to the conclusion that Roy Oswalt just doesn’t throw that hard anymore. Opinions differed as to whether this was due to declining skills or because he simply changed his philosophy, but this theory is becoming more entrenched in the baseball community. However, looking at his pitches from 2007, seem to indicate that he's still throwing hard. A glance at his average numbers should give 'Stros fans and fantasy owners a like a ray of hope, given that his pitches' speeds (hopefully he gets his location down or discerns whether or not he was tipping his pitches) have been in line with his 2007 averages, and 2007 was certainly a very effective year for Roy.

So why's he struggling then if velocity can't be blamed?

When looking at his career numbers, it is apparent that Roy has declining rate statistics associated with strikeouts. His walk rate jumped quite a bit in 2007, as evidenced by his sharp decline in K/BB. Besides that however, his statistics are remarkably consistent. Even his much talked about K/9 rate diminished only slightly after a fairly dramatic dip after the 2004 season. Has Oswalt has made an effort to reduce his pitch count by attempting to pitch to contact more, thereby using less pitches to get hitters out? Looking back at his split-season statistics, this hasn’t not been the case. Though, in 2007 this may have been due in large part to the high amount of walks he surrendered, stymying his ability to get contact.

Looking at his small sample of pitches from 2008, we can see that the problem has been his curve ball has significantly flattened. In 2007, his legendary curve ball broke, on average, 6.69" away from a right-handed batter, while dropping 6.35". In '08, his curve is breaking a scant 3.45" away from a right-handed batter and only dropping 3.73". Roy has said in a few interviews that he hasn't found the right grip for the pitch this year, and it certainly seems the case. As a result of not being able to use his curve ball effectively, Roy Oswalt is now throwing 5% more fastballs (from 65.53%, to 70.9%). If hitters are getting a steady diet of fastballs, Roy's bound for trouble.

What leads us to believe that his stuff will return and his 2008 struggles end, is his that his PERA from 2005-2007 have been improving (3.98, 3.73, 3.60 respectively) as his PECOTA projections indicate he should be regressing, if ever so slightly. Simply summed, the man is learning how to adjust to the fact that he's not as dominant as he used to be. Roy struggled at times last year to get a grip on his curve, but found his stride. While this is assuredly the worst period of his career, in reality, it's only been 16IP, and we should see him return to form.

For a man that is entrusted with anchoring perhaps the least proven (read: worst) pitching staff in baseball, this is welcome news. Oswalt probably will not achieve the levels of success that he had from 2001-2006, but rumbles concerning his eminent demise seem to be far from the truth, statistically speaking.

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Examining the Wizard

Lance Zierlein readers: We have a more recent analysis of Roy Oswalt's struggles:

EXAMINING THE WIZARD: THE MAY REPORT -- It's much more relevant and thorough.


This past offseason, Astros fans heard quite often that our starting pitching would be a worrisome aspect of our club. Thirteen games in, the rotation has a total of two wins to show for it's otherwise competent work. For instance, every Astro starter has at least one quality start, except for one. Roy Oswalt has started his ninth major league season with an 0-3 record a 9.00 ERA. He has made no admissions about an injury being the cause (although he was hit with a batted ball in his first start against the Padres), and his fastball has been consistently around 93-94 MPH. Oswalt wondered openly whether or not he was tipping his pitches in last Friday’s loss to Florida. Whatever the case may be, Astros fans, Fantasy owners and the team itself are searching for reasons why one of the most consistent pitchers in the game has struggled to open the season.

For the past few years, writers and broadcasters have come to the conclusion that Roy Oswalt just doesn’t throw that hard anymore. Opinions differed as to whether this was due to declining skills or because he simply changed his philosophy, but this theory is becoming more entrenched in the baseball community. However, looking at his pitches from 2007, seem to indicate that he's still throwing hard. A glance at his average numbers should give 'Stros fans and fantasy owners a like a ray of hope, given that his pitches' speeds (hopefully he gets his location down or discerns whether or not he was tipping his pitches) have been in line with his 2007 averages, and 2007 was certainly a very effective year for Roy.

So why's he struggling then if velocity can't be blamed?

When looking at his career numbers, it is apparent that Roy has declining rate statistics associated with strikeouts. His walk rate jumped quite a bit in 2007, as evidenced by his sharp decline in K/BB. Besides that however, his statistics are remarkably consistent. Even his much talked about K/9 rate diminished only slightly after a fairly dramatic dip after the 2004 season. Has Oswalt has made an effort to reduce his pitch count by attempting to pitch to contact more, thereby using less pitches to get hitters out? Looking back at his split-season statistics, this hasn’t not been the case. Though, in 2007 this may have been due in large part to the high amount of walks he surrendered, stymying his ability to get contact.

Looking at his small sample of pitches from 2008, we can see that the problem has been his curve ball has significantly flattened. In 2007, his legendary curve ball broke, on average, 6.69" away from a right-handed batter, while dropping 6.35". In '08, his curve is breaking a scant 3.45" away from a right-handed batter and only dropping 3.73". Roy has said in a few interviews that he hasn't found the right grip for the pitch this year, and it certainly seems the case. As a result of not being able to use his curve ball effectively, Roy Oswalt is now throwing 5% more fastballs (from 65.53%, to 70.9%). If hitters are getting a steady diet of fastballs, Roy's bound for trouble.

What leads us to believe that his stuff will return and his 2008 struggles end, is his that his PERA from 2005-2007 have been improving (3.98, 3.73, 3.60 respectively) as his PECOTA projections indicate he should be regressing, if ever so slightly. Simply summed, the man is learning how to adjust to the fact that he's not as dominant as he used to be. Roy struggled at times last year to get a grip on his curve, but found his stride. While this is assuredly the worst period of his career, in reality, it's only been 16IP, and we should see him return to form.

For a man that is entrusted with anchoring perhaps the least proven (read: worst) pitching staff in baseball, this is welcome news. Oswalt probably will not achieve the levels of success that he had from 2001-2006, but rumbles concerning his eminent demise seem to be far from the truth, statistically speaking.

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New Year, New Line-up, New Format

So, we dropped the ball. We let school, internships, and life get in the way of the blog, but it wasn’t all our fault -- well not intentionally anyways. We didn’t think the format through, and we let that kill our passion for the blog and squandered the 200 readers we had a day.

We’re sorry.

So here is the game plan: This preview on opening day. One post after every ten games. A bonus end of the month round up. And an extended All-Star Break assessment. Look for the posts to be more than just some lame game summaries, instead these will be packed with insightful analysis bolstered with meaningful statistics.

So without ado, and because it is opening day, we present our season preview:

Look Out San Diego --

I feel dizzy. My head is spinnin’….how could yours not be after this past off-season and spring training? Regardless of whether we can keep ours, balance will be the name of the game for the 2008 Houston Astros. GM Ed Wade came, saw, and he dismantled. Who can blame him? Let’s lay out a few the pertinent facts of 2007, to see what faced Mr. Wade after Craig was carried off on the city’s collective shoulders:

Team Runs Scored: 723, 13th in the NL
Team OPS: .742, 11th in the NL

Team ERA: 4.68, 12th in the NL
Saves/Save Opportunities: 35/55 = 63.6%

Use any stat lines you’d like, the fact of the matter is that this team’s performance was abysmal in 2007. The Astros tried living off of their successes in 2004 and 2005 for too long, and in doing so, were forced to come to grips with a 73-89 record that marked just their second losing season in the past eleven.

Without re-hashing old mistakes or assigning blame, change was in order, and time was of the essence. Simply bringing in Carlos Lee and Woody Williams would not suffice this off-season. The man who built the Philadelphia Phillies team that made the dramatic (and concededly lucky) division title push, would be confronted with the challenge.

Starting Pitching

Determined not to overspend, and seeing no viable options in the trade market, the Astros head into 2008 with familiar faces, Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe and Chris Sampson as starters:

Expect Roy to be his typical work-horse self and despite many people’s prognostications of declining K-rates, we argue that you expect over 7 K/9. Roy admittedly let the K’s go early last year with Adam Everett backing him and then turned it back on with his early, bone-crunching, exit. With this offense behind him, 20 wins with in his reach.

Wandy Rodriguez was one of the Unluckiest pitchers last year (luck is measured by his peripheral stats, like K/9, K/BB, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) with a PERA of 3.87 to his actuall 4.58. Look for those peripherals to hold and a much more balanced home/road Wandy to perform as a solid number two pitcher (though hopefully the oblique strain was an anomaly).

We all know and love Backe for his team spirit and tenacity on the mound. His quick recovery from Tommy John has been a blessing and his September starts hopefully carry over. Backe should be a better than average pitcher. Look for many quality starts.

Chris Sampson started off the 2007 Season with whispers of ROY, but elbow trouble go the best of him. A healthy Sampson should give us serviceable work if he can over come the weak left side of the infield this year.

Wait a minute…aren’t we missing a certain aged Houstonian?? As our luck would have it, no we are not. Woody Williams was released over the weekend. Ed Wade convinced Drayton to eat the remaining 6 million dollar plus left on his contract. Going 0-3, with an 11 plus ERA in the spring did not do much to help assuage fears that his 2007 season was a late career bump in the road.

Nevertheless, Shawn Chacon was signed to a reasonable one year contract and will be inserted as our fourth starter for the time being. Felipe Paulino will miss the first month of the season with a pinched nerve, but will surely be counted on to become part of this rotation before the season in over.

Starting pitching clearly will not be a strength in 2008. With a farm system that’s barren, and a trade market that was unwelcoming, not a whole lot could have been done in the area. We need only look north to the Texas Rangers to see what overpaying for free agent starters (Chan Ho Park, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Kevin Millwood) can do to a team’s ability to play winning baseball. Ed Wade took note of this and instead sought to make change where he could.

The Bullpen

Ed Wade is known in baseball circles for his propensity to sign/trade for relief pitchers with the abandon of a Carlos Lee going after the last post game shrimp scampi. My attempts at humor aside, that tradition was not broken in his first off season in charge of the Astros. As touched on earlier, the 2007 Astros simply could not nail down games when push came to shove. A 64 percent conversion percentage by your team’s set-up men (in our case Mr. Qualls and Mr. Wheeler) and closer (Mr. Lidge) translates into inconsistent and ultimately losing baseball. Couple that with our less than stellar starting pitching, and a recipe for disaster was apparent.

If it’s consistency you desire in a set up man, then Doug Brocail is just what the doctor ordered. With a career ERA of 3.99, Brocail will be asked to preserve leads heading into the 9th inning. After having a rejuvenating year in the San Diego bullpen last year, Brocail enjoyed the expansive Petco parameters to the tune of a 3.05 ERA, while giving up only 66 hits in 76 and 2/3 of a inning.

Chad Qualls was and will probably remain a very good late inning pitcher. That cannot be debated. However, of his 82 hits given up last year 10 were home runs (the same number given up in 2006). Strikingly inconsistent at times, Qualls has the stuff to be among the best relief pitchers in baseball. His rate stats are impeccable (K/9 of above 8, and a K/BB ratio of above 3.0), but his mental makeup leaves more to be desired. Brocail himself gave up 8 long balls last year, but only a combined 13 in the last four.

The loss of Qualls was mitigated by the fact that, well, he was traded with positional vagabond Chris Burke for Jose Valverde. The NL saves leader this past season, Valverde was a catalyst for the Diamondbacks run to the top of the Western Division. His 47 saves (in 54 opportunities) mean that he blew less saves in twice the amount of opportunities than Brad Lidge. He is under contract with the Astros for at least the next two seasons, a big plus.

The last major piece of bullpen change came about early in the off season. Josh “.650 OPS or bust” Anderson was shipped out to Atlanta for middle relief man Oscar Villareal. He was immediately signed to a multi-year contract, and will be used as primarily a seventh inning pitcher, but has experience setting up the closer as well. Regardless of what happens with Villareal, Ed Wade turned a middling (that’s too kind….below replacement level? Yea….that’s better) outfielder and came up with a reliever who can help solidify a part of this team that needs to be excellent in order to compete.

Relievers are not a dime a dozen, either in price or availability. There is nothing more frustrating than having a starter pitch well, only to have the lead given up by a guy who should be changing my coolant at Jiffy Lube. Brandon Backe, Chris Sampson and Shawn Chacon will not be expected or needed to pitch deeper into games than they are able to, either. The old baseball adage about making the game shorter with your bullpen is a proven method to winning, and hopefully it can be duplicated this season.
Geoff Geary (who came over in the Lidge trade), Dave Borkowski and Wesley Wright (Rule V draftee) have not been mentioned, but combine those three with the three new editions, and this bullpen should offer the flexibility and consistency that the team makeup demands in order to be a respectable 2008 squad.

What to expect at the plate

Like the bullpen, our everyday lineup has seen a near complete overhaul from 2007. Only Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee remain from last season’s opening day lineup. Fan favorites Luke Scott and Mike Lamb are no longer with the team. Opposing pitcher favorites Adam Everett (free agency), and Brad Ausmus (now a reserve) are either no longer with the team or can only hurt the offense in a limited capacity. Top to bottom, things should look like this:

1) Homegrown outfielder Michael Bourn is set to take his career .340 OBP to the top of the lineup to serve as the main catalyst for the offense. After being a reserve/defensive replacement in Philadelphia, Bourn is here to get on base for the sluggers behind him. He will be able to use his speed (17 stolen bases in 18 chances in 2007) to put pressure on opposing pitchers as well. I am not a tremendous fan of the stolen base, but, with percentages like his, this is a high reward, low risk situation that is rarely seen in baseball. Although a majority of steals occurred while not being held on at first in late game scenarios, Bourn still stands to steal upwards of 40 bases this year. Additionally, he is fine defensive outfielder from most accounts, which is good, considering our leftfielder will never be confused with Barry Bonds circa 1993. Bottom line with this guy is that he’s 25, under our control for years to come and will only improve as he gets more experience. An OPS of around .720 is not out of the question. After two years of struggling to get men on base at the top of our lineup, Bourn will seek to prove himself ready and able.

2) Due to circumstances beyond his control, presumptive number two hitter Kazuo Matsui will miss at least the first two weeks of the season after surgery for…anal fissures? What? Did “The Onion” come up with this? Well, as it stands, Kazzy will be out for the count, letting Hunter Pence man the two spot. Arguably the lone on the field bright spot the Astros had last year, Pence smashed Astro rookie records for slugging percentage and extra base hits. He has everything lined up nicely for himself to surpass those numbers. As he begins his first full season as a major leaguer, Pence still has much to learn about how to be a big league hitter. This shouldn’t stop him from being a 25 HR/25 SB man. Couple that with 80-85 Runs and RBI, and Hunter stands as an unquestionable star in the making. Projected to max out in the OPS range of .890 in the next four to five years, his is a horse that this organization will hitch their wagon to for years to come.

3) Ahhh, a familiar face. After all, is that what we as Astros fans like? Familiarity? Uncle Drayton (to borrow a phrase of Lisa’s) sure does. And from what we’ve learned this off-season, number three hitter Lance Berkman does as well. He let it be known that he didn’t like having to acclimate himself to a new clubhouse. While Morgan Ensberg may have been a great gin rummy player, the fact remains that Lance’s new teammates in the lineup are improvements over the old stalwarts. I won’t go so far as to say that they will help “protect” him (a concept that contrary to Joe Morgan’s assertions, does not exist), but he should have more chances to knock in runs. Lance cames off the most disappointing 30/100 season in recent memory. Unless it takes him two months to collect more than two doubles again this year, Lance will surpass his .880 OPS and be the super star performer that he has been in years past. An on base machine, Lance still has four good years left in him. Also, we wouldn’t have thought so after watching him flail about on Tal’s Hill in the past, but Lance is an above average defensive player. With fears of diminished range on the left side of the infield, Lance’s unsung talents at first base may be among his most important.

4) Another familiar face, Carlos Lee is slated to bat cleanup for this year’s squad. Coming off another solid, if not spectacular year, Lee led the 2007 team in RBI, total plate appearances and hits. It is difficult to justify a 6 yr/$100 million dollar deal, but Lee did as much to approach that value as he could, given his career statistics. We all know the schtick against him: he is a poor (I’m being generous) defensive outfielder who also drew the ire of Craig Biggio after not always hustling to first base after hitting assumed ground ball outs. This is the man who will also see the largest regression in the next few years, as his “big man” skills will diminish more quickly than a more athletic player. So, yes, lambaste Drayton for overpaying for offense. But in the overall scheme of this team, like it or not, is to win now. I’m admittedly trying to shine the best light on Carlos, but as it stands, anything can and has happened. *(see: Cardinals, The St. Louis. 2006)

5) How do you think the conversation went down? Maybe something like this:

The Scene: December 13th, 2007. A spacious office on Crawford Street, Houston, Texas. A content middle aged man surfs the internet while chatting on his cell phone. In walks an older associate with a grim look on his face.

Tal Smith: Hey, Ed. D’you get a chance to look at the Mitchell Report yet?

Ed Wade: Not yet. I haven’t done much yet today. After making the trade for Miggy yesterday, I’m pretty tuckered out.

T.S.: Yea speaking of Miguel…that’s sorta what I came in here for. You may want to check out the report.

E.W.: All right, all right. (Smith stands in the doorway as Wade sifts through the initial pages of the document. An exasperated look comes upon Wade’s face as he sees Miguel Tejada’s name mentioned more than forty times.)

E.W.: Do you remember where I put the receipt?

So, it may not have gone exactly like that, but the nature of the trade for SS Miguel Tejada had an odd element of timing to it. Tejada was traded for on December 12th, and was named the following day in the release of the Mitchell Report. Wade claims to have had no idea about the imminence of his outing, but no baseball fan worth his salt can truly believe him in this regard. As far back as 2003 when Rafael Palmiero attached his name to steroids, Tejada has been under a cloud of suspicion.

On the field, Tejada will be expected to improve on the Astros offense from the SS position (a house plant has a shot to nail this requirement down) and play……well, just play defense. A still deadly pull hitter, the winner of the 2004 All Star Home Run Derby should again be able to find his stroke to the tune of a 25 HR season. On the books for the next years at nearly twenty million per, Mr. Tejada has much to prove. Adam Everett was a fan favorite. He was squeaky clean off the field, and a smooth defensive player on it. The fact that he couldn’t sniff a .700 OPS to save his life didn’t seem to matter. Perhaps his ineptitude was overshadowed by that of Brad Ausmus. Regardless, Miguel Tejada is still a thumper extraordinaire. We should be able to get another two near All Star caliber years out of him, and then send him on his way.

6) Perhaps the least sexy Astros positional player, Ty Wigginton will begin 2008 as the Astros everyday third sacker. Gone are the days of the double headed attack of Mike Lamb and Morgan Ensberg. Lamb has moved on to greener pastures on the Astroturf of Minnesota, and Mo is dancing on the line between Yankee reserve and farmhand. Wigginton is a professional hitter, plain and simple. A man who’s splits (.287 against RHP and .269 against LHP) are much more reasonable than either of the aforementioned Astros, Wigginton will have the opportunity to play nearly everyday. Unspectacular yet efficient, a .800 plus OPS will be a treat from either the six or seven hole. Another pull hitter, the folks in the Crawford Boxes should expect more Landry’s gift cards courtesy of Ty.

7) A breath of fresh air. The exuberance of youth. Whatever phrase you like, J.R. Towles is embodies that much and more. A September call up in 2007, Towles impressed with an 8 RBI performance against the Cardinals, while showing poise in his game calling. He still has a lot of room for growth defensively, but with Officer Ausmus showing him the ropes, he couldn’t have a better teacher. When it comes to hitting, it’s Ausmus who should have the notebook out. Towles has the stroke of a doubles hitter who should be able to find the gaps and use his superlative speed to take the extra base. Possibly the only catcher outside of Chavez Ravine who can hit double digit homers and swipe double digit bases, J.R.’s growth will be among the most important for the Astros in 2008. How he learns to handle the pitching staff, his ability to get on base at the bottom of the lineup and the leadership qualities he gleans from the veterans in front of him will be paramount in the future successes of this club. An OPS of .760 this year, with many years of over .800 in his future, Mr. Towles stands ready to take up the challenges of being a starting catcher in the bigs

8) We all know the story at second base. A man who needs no introduction. A standout at Seton Hall Unive…Sorry. Had to catch myself there. Taking the place of future Cooperstowner Craig Biggio are two familiar faces (Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum) and the aforementioned free agent addition Kazuo Matsui. Loretta and Blum are similar players both defensively (limited range) and offensively (will struggle to get on base). However much they may struggle to get on, it is very likely they will do so with greater propensity than Kaz Matsui. Kaz, he of the hyper-inflated home/road split, parlayed an excellent second half of 2007 into a big time free agent contract. Ed, I’ve defended you against those who have doubted you all off-season long as intelligent, but I cannot do so here. This was a move to attach the Astros to a bit of the magic that surrounded the Colorado Rockies’ run to the NL pennant. A simple search of his home batting average last season (.330) and road counterpart (.249) would indicate that the Coors Field affect is in full play with Kazzy. That being said, even Matt Holiday had a .780 OPS away from the park with the pine trees. Regardless, he’s here and he’s our second baseman. Matsui is a package that offers plus speed on the base-paths and range defensively. However, it’s difficult to deny the fact that Ed Wade overestimated his abilities, and this team will have to bite the financial bullet for this overestimation.

As for our reserves, Spring Training is basically the showcase for who will be a team’s bench contributors. Jose Cruz, Jr., Darrin Erstad and Brad Ausmus will be front and center in this regard. Cruz and Ausmus hit well in the Spring, and Erstad has a World Series victory to his credit.

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