Gut Feeling (Hopefully Wrong)

As I've obsessively checked MLBTradeRumors.com all day today between assignments, I've come to a terrible conclusion. It's a gut instinct, but I also called Adam Dunn's Granny last night, so apparently I'm en fuego(alright, not the hardest thing to do, but hey it impressed and angered several people around me).

Per this Ken Rosenthal Article and quote:

"Trade Miguel Tejada? The Astros, bless their delusional hearts, are thinking quite the opposite. They're buyers, not sellers, pursuing bullpen help even though they're buried in the National League standings...The team's only discussions about Tejada, the source says, involve his long-term position. Tejada, 34, eventually will need to move to third base, but the Astros have a strong third-base prospect at Class AA, Chris Johnson."

in conjunction with this atrocious Richard Justice blog post (honestly, the man cannot possess a spine and still turn this crap out). I'm calling us trading away better than his ERA suggests and future stud reliever/closer, Bud Norris, and now essentially worthless to us because our organization can't think long-term to save it's life, Chris Johnson, plus one of our MLB Bench Crew for a marginal bull pen arm from whatever team will say yes to Ed Wade first. I hope to God I'm wrong, but reading Justice's and Rosenthal's article with five minutes of each other made that snap together in my mind.

Regardless of whether we make such a terrible trade, I think I will forever hold hate in my heart for this fiasco. We have SO many movable pieces that people are interested in. We could truly restock our farm system (not to mention free up some dough on the general ledger) and in a few years have positive things to look forward to for many years to come. Instead, we're going to sign Ben Sheets to a bloated contract -- because he'll finally reach 200 IP on a World Series Championship team and therefore must be ready to be a long-term Ace, thereby jacking up his asking price (and our bidding price) -- so that we can "compete" in 2009. Depression doesn't even begin to describe what I'm feeling right now.

Sphere: Related Content

John Kerry Ain't Got Nothin' on Richard Justice - Why Sports Writers Matter

As I sat bleary eyed at my kitchen table, having hit the snooze button three times this morning, I began my typical morning trudge through the Chronicle’s Sports section. Usually, in such a state, I just mutter obscenity laden curses to Richard Justice and Steve Campbell. This isn’t because I’m angry at the world entirely at 6:30 AM, in the end, it’s because I know they have journalistic responsibility to educate the fans of Houston’s sport franchises and when it comes to the Astros, they’re pretty awful at their jobs. Justice and Campbell both have spent the last month-ish trying to explain why the Astros don’t need a fire sale in order to be a better team. That they’re just a FA pitcher next season away from the play-offs. That we can’t underestimate this team because one time, in 2005, they did something spectacular. Never mind that only a handful of those men are left in the Astros dugout, this team might just still have something up its sleeve. All we need to do, Justice and Campbell have urged, is just trust in Drayton.

Then, Ed Wade makes a move that signals to the entire baseball world that he and Drayton McLane are prepared to run this ship into the ground before they even think about trying that rebuilding thing and suddenly Richard Justice, this morning, thinks this organization is doomed. That’s quite the turn around don’t you think? Richard Justice went from a don’t give up on this team, it’s a free agent pitcher away from glory, company line guy to this guy overnight:

"Maybe McLane lacks patience. Maybe he still thinks there’s a quick fix out there.

That might be why he’s willing to spend $100 million on Carlos Lee and veto $1.2 million in spending on three draft picks.

If he’s really smart, he’ll realize he could save money by splurging on draft picks and cutting corners on Wolf, Shawn Chacon, etc.

When he finally understands this, when he studies how the Twins and Marlins and A’s have succeeded on dramatically smaller budgets, he’ll understand that less might actually be more."

Where did that come from Richard? Either you finally grew a pair or you truly are just the most easily swayed flip-flopper around. I hope it’s the former, because that means the pair will stick around and perhaps do something to influence the taste and preferences of Astros fans. If we had legion of beat writers condemning the fool-hearted arrogance of our owner and the ineptitude he inspires in our management, then perhaps fans would be not just be accepting, but welcoming of a rebuild. They might want to tune into Hooks and Express games that show up on FSN about once a week. If Richard Justice had parted with the company line a month ago and printed those statements, Astros fans as a collective body, might have been screaming for anything not buckled down to be moved or at least the pieces that could fetch something of worth.

Instead of rebuilding the farm system, like the smart organizations (Justice’s own words), a month ago this was Richard’s proposal for how to fix this team:

“This course has its price. Signing premier free agents [pitchers] will cost the Astros the draft choices they need.

But there's no perfect solution for a franchise that's broken in so many areas.

It's just one way out. Maybe the best way” (emphasis added).

I’ve read a few articles recently about the biggest villains in baseball, the owners, and that’s probably well and true in most cases. It's hard for anyone to stand up against monopolists with government protection. However, I have a bone to pick with our beat writers. It’s their responsibility to inform the fans of what’s going on in an organization, to help drive the taste and preferences of the general public. If you believe any part of how a market economy works, then you probably understand that taste and preferences are the most important part of demand and to that end, the beat writers may just be the most important aspect of shaping our demand for sports franchises. With this great responsibility, they have failed to do anything other then repackage hokey and tired company lines about this and that in order to get everyone to believe that this franchise isn’t busted. Instead of inciting a riot, they’ve tried to continue to pull the wool over our eyes. Now that the cat is out of the bag, they’re changing their tune -- it’s too little, too late.

There is a lot of blame to go around in baseball when things aren’t going right. I think Drayton and his front office deserve and hearty portion of it. Yet, as demonized as we can make those men and Union Station, we shouldn’t forget that there were a select group of men who had the freedom to say anything they wanted and have it read by millions of readers each day who stood by the dopes at Texas and Crawford instead of living up to their responsibility.

Sphere: Related Content

Ed Wade Makes a Pretty Lousy Scape-Goat

The Astros suck. There’s really no debating it. There’s room for debate as to why they suck -- it could be luck, it could be terrible management, it could be declining ability, and lack of talent, but it’s not for lack of trying. I was excited when Ed Wade came to Houston; a lot of people weren’t. Evan and I had discussed Philadelphia’s center-fielder in waiting Michael Bourn several times at the trade deadline in ’07. We had heard of his tools spoken of highly from snippet’s like this:

“A couple of years ago, we might have gotten very, very excited about a player who posted a .379 translated OBP as a 21-year-old. Now we're only very excited about him. Bourn's plate discipline is outstanding, and it helps that he's a little bit undersized as 5'11", reducing the size of his strike zone. His stolen-base ability rates just about as high as it can: He not only has tremendous speed, but also instinctive technique on the basepaths, which led to perhaps the most impressive SB-CS ratio in minor league baseball. While he's not a natural center fielder, he certainly has the speed to handle the position, and should improve his routes over time.”
--Baseball Prospectus, 2005.

When the trigger was pulled by Ed Wade last fall, I caught it in an email at 10 o’clock while I was studying in the library. I raced out and immediately notified Evan, he was so overjoyed, he thought I was joking. On more than one occasion this winter, I defended the trade and I’ll still defend this trade for one reason: Michael Bourn is 25 years old and he’s just barely accumulated 300 PA at the major league level. Everyone knew Brad Lidge still had it, but he wouldn’t find it in Houston -- how do you sell that at the bargaining table to another GM though? I was just as big of fan of Luke Scott and his ability as anyone, but I believed (and still do) that in the long run, this was the right move for the team. Luke Scott is 30 and is at his peak, which finds him to be a streaky, but effective RF with average defensive capabilities. Michael Bourn is 25, has been rushed through the minor leagues, but has possessed three notable skills his entire life: working PA for walks or finding his pitch, stealing bases effectively, and defense. He hasn’t had a lot of time to adjust to major league pitching, but I fully believe his eye will catch up, he has two to five years to reach his “peak” and we’d be fools not to believe that will happen. Further, with proper management, he’d be a much more lethal steal threat, but he’s been encouraged to be reckless by an incompetent manager. In three years I think we will look back on this trade and be very pleased about having an outfield anchored by Pence and Bourn at the peak of their abilities, instead of Pence and two aged veterans on the way downside of their careers (Lee and Scott).

Flip-flopping Richard Justice had these unremarkable ten cents to throw in the debate:

The issue isn't whether Ed Wade got enough for Lidge. He didn't. There's hardly an argument to be made about that.
This evaluation will be subject to review if Michael Bourn becomes the impact player Wade believed he'd be at the time of the trade. With fewer than 500 career at-bats, Bourn might get there.

The day before, Justice had lambasted the Tejada deal, which was set in motion by the Bourn trade:

To Ed Wade's list of mistakes, add the name of Miguel Tejada. Put another $26 million on the general manager's tab.

However, his colleague Steve Campbell has the more intelligent and level-head view of Tejada’s woes and should be praised accordingly, as such characteristics are not often contained in Houston Chronicle ink. Cambell eloquently penned “Maybe Cooper decided he needed a day off from watching Miguel Tejada's heavy-legged pursuit of ground balls and sluggish swings of the bat.” Miguel is 34, and as Campbell points out, he can’t be the iron-man he was in his youth and still be remotely effective. Sometimes players have to swallow their pride and admit they’re human and in that light, Tejada needs to look to his former predecessor (some dude name Ripken), for a cue. Cooper on the other hand, has no excuse. I’m sick of Cecil Cooper getting off on “learning-curve” excuse. The man has been a coach or a manager for many, many years prior to his gig as a big-league manager -- there should be no learning curve for just about all the things he keeps screwing up.

Some of Ed Wade’s moves had the mark of a desperate man, but he was exactly that. I fully believe that the Bourn deal will play out as his best. Tejada was traded away for two hurt pitchers, an ineffective relief pitcher, and Luke Scott. If Tejada were to be used effectively, he would currently, along with Valverde, represent one of our two most expendable and prized trade chips heading into the trade deadline. The Dodgers need a SS with a bat desperately and the Red Sox desire both a SS and relief pitcher just as much, if not more. Ed Wade has options to shore up the Astros future if Drayton allows him to trade Valverde and if Tejada can put together a solid two weeks before the deadline, Drayton should allow him to be traded away too. Bourn, Pence, and Towles could be the foundation of the next generation of Astros, and they could have an excellent supporting cast if Ed Wade can strike while the iron’s hot. If he can’t than Drayton will continue to shoulder the blame for the organization tanking. It’s not Ed Wades fault the Astros are awful this year. Drayton gave him a no win situation and Cecil Cooper has done literally everything in his power to stymie the effectiveness of our pitching staff and our offense. Right now Astros fans might want Ed Wade’s head, but they should probably direct their rage towards Coop and Drayton before they go after Ed.

Sphere: Related Content

Searching for Intelligence -- Still

"Lucky for us, McLane has plenty of money, and money will go a long way toward fixing the problem.

He needs two free-agent starting pitchers. It doesn't sound like much if you say it really fast.

Those two pitchers could add $30 million to the payroll, could push the Astros into the $120 million range.”

There must be something in the water that resides in the home-team club house at MMP, because I read the above, and shot water through my nose -- I’m glad my laptop is still intact. Richard Justice apparently is fully convinced of the following:

1.) That Drayton McLane will do expand pay roll by $25 million in order to net two more starting pitchers. Inching himself perilously close to luxury taxes and also infuriating his best-bud, Bud Selig.

2.) That while increasing payroll at the major league level by 26%, he’ll also pump more money into the farm system; both sign talent and provide them with the instructors and staff to excel.

I’m sure you understand my complete shock now. Justice, asserts that we can fix the 2009 season from the snare of 90 losses, by bringing on board Ben Sheets and one of either Jon Garland or Braden Looper. Looper, who is currently recapturing his youth, will by 35 years of age, and probably will try to ride this season’s resurgence into an inflated number of dollar signs or years on his contract. Even if Drayton were feeling philanthropic to the denizens who fill his ball-park, I would hope he and Ed Wade would shy away from a deal that is only slightly less insane than Woody Williams. So I’ll scratch that off the list. This leaves the team seeking Ben Sheets and Jon Garland. Sheets would probably get along just peachy with Roy and Lance, but Garland probably remembers being low-balled by the Astros two years ago. Also, when was the last time you can remember a team bringing in two highly sought after FA agent pitchers in the same off-season (well, throw out Andy and Roger, because that came down to home town ties)? So it’s incredibly unlikely that such a plan would come off success for, or be desirable. The last point, Justice is willing to concede:

“This course has its price. Signing premier free agents will cost the Astros the draft choices they need.

But there's no perfect solution for a franchise that's broken in so many areas.

It's just one way out. Maybe the best way” (emphasis added).

The best way? The Astros should hedge their bets by not unloading what proven talent they can for young prospects on the chance that we might steal two coveted, scarce resources from the free agent market? Even if Justice’s plan were to succeed, as he concedes, we’d lose out on another year’s worth of top-talent in the draft. We can’t spend our way back into contention. Two free agent pitchers are not going to just land on our door-steps and take us to the World Series. We’d probably be a strong contender in the NL Central, but the Cubs are a team primed to run away with the division for the next few years; with several talented, home grown arms who are waiting in their wings. Further, it’s asinine to believe that Drayton will spend lavishly on both the major and minor league level. This is a team that has been mismanaged for several years now. There are no short-term solutions to long-term issues. Hopefully Drayton McLane will change his mind about how to approach his teams future before July, 31. Otherwise, it’ll be a long five to ten years.

Wholly unrelated, but still totally inspiring:
Apparently, this dude has amassed over 3,000 balls from games. My age six through twelve year old self just at it's heart out.

Sphere: Related Content

The Trickle Down Effect of Incompetence

As we enter into the series with the Red Sox this weekend, we should first pause to enjoy the fact that Drayton Mclane lobbied his crony Bud Selig very hard to have us get schlacked for three games so he could sell double-priced tickets. Good call. We should also note the disparity between the Boston Red Sox and our own organization. Just look at the pitching staff they have on the major league level and then if you want to depress yourself further, look at what their minor league players are doing at AA and AAA. In the same off-season in which we spent $100 million for Carlos Lee, the Red Sox spent $100 million for Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox are a team that knows how to assemble a winning baseball team. Their owner has deferred to some of the smartest minds in baseball to ensure this commitment is realized. Drayton McLane has no concept of how to field a winning team, yet meddles in just about every aspect of the baseball operations; from encouraging us to sign ludicrous contracts with players who won’t live up to the dollar signs; refusing to know when to fold them and unload veterans for young talent at the deadline two years in a row; and refusing to sign the scarce amount of young talent we’ve been able to draft for the last few years. So watch the Red Sox this weekend and drool over what a well run organization looks like.

This trend of undervaluing the strongest correlation to winning baseball games, preventing runs from scoring, pervades not just ownership, but management as well. Journalists apparently also undervalue it. Here’s a quote from Richard Justice this morning:

"If [Cecil Cooper] has a problem, it probably is with the pitching staff... His challenge may be in dealing with pitchers, with explaining why he's doing things, with doing as much listening as talking.”

The quote comes from a column debunking an alleged toxic atmosphere in the Astros’ club house, but if Cooper is failing to communicate effectively or at all with the pitching staff (which the article suggests in some parts) then how is it not toxic? For Justice not to lambast Cooper for failings that he is seeing and hearing in the clubhouse is infuriating.

Let’s break down what a baseball game is. There are 8 position players, who hit and if it’s the AL, there is one fat dude who sits on the bench and swings the bat for the pitcher. So each hitter accounts for 1/9 of offense, which occurs every 1/2 inning, meaning that each hitter accounts for 1/18 of the game. The pitcher, who is responsible for preventing runs from scoring by getting the batter out, preferably striking him out, or making the job of the defenders behind as easy as possible by creating “bad swings” accounts for the other 1/2 of the game. While each defender clearly has a role to play in run prevention it’s not near as much as the pitchers. If Cecil Cooper is failing his team by not properly communicating crucial information to his pitching staff, he’s doing a great disservice to his team. We’ve already chronicled how bad he is at managing an offense to produce runs, but if he’s botching his pitching staff’s mental approach to the game, then he needs to go, because he’s doing an unacceptable job.

Sphere: Related Content