Evan here: Well the clock is ticking on Ed Wade making a trade to improve the Astros. With every movement of the minute hand, the fate of the Houston Astros for seasons to come becomes more and more apparent. There will be no moves to better this team down the line. There are 23 minutes left. Don't hold your breath. Put down the rabbit's foot. After winning 4 out of 6 games against divisional opponents, our chips are on the table- and we're goin' all in. Don't mistake this bravado for baseball intelligence. No, no- the Houston Astros of 2008 are not "stupid like a fox". They're most likely just, well, stupid. I hate to say it, because you won't find a bigger Astros fan than me. Or any of us, for that matter. We've all thought the same thing today- why can't Drayton see this team for what it is?? (20 minutes)How can he miss the forest for the trees? My answer is this: sometimes, those closest to the situation can't see the problem around them, no matter how evident. If you go to a friend's house, and all their family does is fight- you can leave thinking, "well, if Person A did this and if Person B did that and if Person C didn't do that the family could be a lot more cohesive." (19 minutes) We can scream until our lungs burst with frustration, but this is just how the current team braintrust is going to operate. To some extent I give them credit- they all want to win. Their avenues for arriving at the ultimate destination need to be seriously reconsidered, but their hearts are in the right place. Their minds however, need to be reconfigured. (17 minutes)
Let me preface this by saying that I defended Ed Wade's off-season moves until I was blue in the face this off-season. My logic was that should we try and fail this year, at least we had acquired/possessed a ton of tradeable pieces to re-stock and re-build at the trade deadline (which is fast approaching). Evan's and I's conviction in the fact that something like this would happen is what led us to picking up the blog again for this season. What follows is four three months worth of frustration and attempting to find a silver-lining in the cluster-f@*k of a season this has been only to continually just be shat on by our management.
The Astros acquired LaTroy Hawkins last night. It's a low risk move if you don't analyze it because Hawkins will be almost free to the Astros (we can pretend that this is not because the Yankees are just that pleased to get rid of him). However, to acquire Hawkins, we gave up Matthew Cusick who in 573 career AB at A ball has this triple slash: .293/.383/.455. Those numbers look good for a 10th rounder. Granted it's A ball, but at this point possessing someone who has upside in our farm system is like striking oil. LaTroy Hawkins was so bad as a Yankees reliever they released him. Outside of Mariano and Joba, try to name a Yankees reliever who isn't awful...that's HOW bad LaTroy Hawkins was this year so far. His control is terrible 5.1 K/9 to 3.8 BB/9, which you would expect from a 35 year old relief pitcher who's just never been that good.
Ok, enough of my baseball statistics nerdery. What does Ed Wade have to say about this deal?
On Hawkins' terrible year so far:
His overall numbers don't look all that great right now, but our reports on him over the last month or so, he's gone back and thrown more of his four-seam fastball and his velocity has been good.
Alright Ed. What you're saying is you know he's bad, but now that he's throwing the ball harder, the fact that he can't locate his pitches to not walk people will be ameliorated. Phew.
On giving up a projectible young prospect:
We like Matt. He's swinging the bat very well at Lexington, and he's had a good season down there. I had a chance to see him play a handful of games early in the season. We consider him a prospect, and obviously, the Yankees consider him a prospect also. But if you have a chance to add an experienced guy like Hawkins, and the price of doing business is a lower level bat, then it makes sense to go ahead and do something.
So we have this kid in our farm system who is doing some really outstanding things, but you had a chance to take a guy who is way past his prime (if there was one) in your bull pen. Which, by the way, is already full of decent but not great guys. Good call. It's not like this team isn't chock full of veterans who are declining rapidly in some aspect of the game or other. What the franchise has too much of is is talented young prospects to replace these guys -- hopefully sooner rather than later.
Well then Ed, how do you feel what you've done to help a team who have a negative 56 run differential while being 9.5 games back in the Wild Card race behind a scant six teams (I could have also just written: Have no hope of doing anything meaningful this year)?
We sort of went into this period of time looking to bolster our starting rotation, and get some more depth in the back end of the bullpen, and we think with Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins, we've done those things.
You've added more depth that is for sure. You've also added a pitcher who's numbers are park inflated, and a reliever who is losing his ability to pitch effectively. In the process you've given up a pitcher who many thought would be the next Dan Wheeler and a A ball guy who was playing very, very well. This would possibly be excusable if the following things weren't true:
1. Our Starting Rotation would actually be improved by Randy Wolf.
2. Our Bull Pen would actually be improved by LaTroy Hawkins.
3. 1 and 2 would only be legitimate if the following weren't true:
A. This team weren't in the bottom of the league for .OBP and had prospects for increasing its run scored.
B. This team weren't buried in the basement of the NL Central by 13.5 games and the Wild Card by 9.5 games and six other teams.
4. If 3(A) and 4(B) are true, the logical plan would be to unload the movable and valuable talent on this team for as many talent prospects as possible, in an effort to make this Matt Cusick kid look like a schmuck in our farm system.
At this point, I feel inclined almost to root against the Astros, so that Ed Wade might get splashed with a painful and shocking dose of reality. So that we might have a front office rebuilding process and then further down the line a team rebuilding process -- once the front office is qualified (read: not lobotomized) to take on such an endeavor.
I just checked MLBTradeRumors to see if Ed Wade has just been playing the fool and suddenly sent an email to every GM listing his terms for Wandy, Miggy, Wiggy, the Bench Crew, Valverde, Brocail, and Geary in what would be forever considered one the saaviest moves ever to drive up demand elasticity for our guys...there was no such news. Damnit.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fear and Loathing in Houston
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Trades, Pads and Compensatory Picks
Tumbleweeds rolling, crickets chirping, Ed Wade bringing in an average at best starting pitcher. As Astros fans, we seem to be in a lose-lose situation. If management does do something, odds are it will be poorly conceived and cost the team money. If management does nothing in the next week, the team will have bypassed another good opportunity to strengthen our minor league system.
When this team was constructed, there were holes in the lineup and the starting rotation. If the Astros can’t get through the end of July without scrounging for bullpen help, the efforts Wade went through to create a new team this past off-season was all for naught. Trading away much of your bullpen from last year for an entirely new crop may have been the right move. Chad Qualls in essence yielded Jose Valverde, who despite Monday's debacle, has pitched well as the closer. When Dan Wheeler was sent to Tampa Bay, Ty Wigginton came in return and has played more than adequately, to the tune of an OPS+ of 113. He has helped to solidify a position that would have seen a Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum platoon day in and day out; negating two more chips to trade with. Michael Bourn has struggled, yes, but trading Brad Lidge to Philadelphia was the right move because despite having the break on his slider return to pre-2006 levels, the fact remains that every piece of that deal that came to Houston has been used. Geoff Geary has been a more than serviceable arm for the bullpen, and Mike Costanzo was sent to Baltimore in the Miguel Tejada trade. Michael Bourn is who he is: a speedster who has trouble getting on base. I know that is a strong indictment against a table setter, but until Bourn has 600 AB’s under his major league belt, I won’t completely dismiss his ability to be a competent player on this level.
While he has done just about everything he possibly could with the roster, farm system and owner he was given, I’d like to know what kind of GM Wade really is. He came to Houston as the man who drafted Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels. But, what sort of stimuli does he respond to when the deadline approaches? This is a question that we baseball outsiders will probably never able to answer, as we aren’t privy to the information necessary to arrive at any conclusions. No question though, this will be the time that Ed Wade can define his first year as the Astros GM. As it stands right now, I doubt that he will be able to land another relief pitcher. Teams that are in contention have both greater needs and greater resources (i.e.- farm systems) by which to acquire players.
Stephen and I are were both under the assumption that Wade was looking to the future, despite the comments he’d given to the media in the past few weeks. Then yesterday happened. The only benefit I can see from this trade is that maybe Randy Wolf can put together a solid second half and qualify himself as a Level “B” free agent, thus giving the Astros another draft pick next year. If not, millions of dollars will have been in essence wasted. Jack Cassel could very well provide the same amount of success in the second half as Randy Wolf. Cassell has a very high HR/FB ratio, which should come down some in the second half if he pitches enough innings for the regression to the mean to occur. This is based of his 2007 season, in which he pitching sparingly, and like Wolf, luckily for the Padres. Wolf, as Stephen mentioned yesterday, has been unlukcy with his LOB%, but very fortunate in other categories. Moving from PETCO Park, which is an extreme pitcher’s park, to Minute Maid, which is neutral as far altering the runs scored/prevented in a game, should stand to bring him back to earth. There’s still more than a week left until the non-waiver trade deadline passes by, but Ed Wade’s first move is a head scratcher for sure.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Astros become Wolf's Pack
**UPDATE** Stephen here, glad to be back. Evan and I just got off a "conference call" and have changed our tune about the trade. My initial reaction to this trade came through a series of text messages with Evan while I was on the home stretch of a 10,000 page document review (yes, it's as arduous as it sounds). Wolf's ERA had escaped me, but I knew the strike outs were there. Having arrived home, I finally got to sit down and crunch this trade around in my head.
I went to The Hardball Times' stat page and pulled up Wolf's numbers. He's been an unlucky pitcher in terms of LOB% which, and has an FIP (fielding independent) ERA of 4.29, and perhaps we could expect Wolf to improve as the season goes on.
The inquiry didn't stop there however, as Evan and I had bounced around, via text messages, what we thought of the Pet Co. park factor in Wolf's season might be on our respective commutes home. What I dug up shatters Evan's and my initial reactions to this deal. Wolf is sporting a 6.63 ERA away from Pet Co. this year. Meaning, that Wolf will most likely be demolished in the friendly confines of MMP a la his predcesor Woody Williams, who was equally bolstered by the fact that balls have to really work to get get anywhere it Pet Co. before migrating to Houston.
To depress myself further, I watched an Ed Wade interview in regards to the trade. I have officially lost all faith in this organization. Seriously, listening to him talk about how he thinks we can still pull it out, despite having when 42+ games in the last 60 to have a chance made me want to cry. How does this man have a job? How does this man not take the time to look at simple things like Home/Spilts, park factors, etc. before making a deal. The Astros have essentially made a deal that continues to leave them dead in the water as far as doing anything to make this a worthwhile ball club. Drayton's leadership, his choice in management, and his never give up attitude will leave an indelible and painful mark on this club for many, many years. We are completely F$%^ed is all I have to say.
We hereby rescind the following comments.
I hate myself for the title, but I couldn't resist. The Astros have acquired veteran right handed starter Randy Wolf for minor league pitcher Chad Reineke. My initial reaction was frustration, but then after looking at the logistics of the deal, I realized that if and when the Astros do not re-sign Wolf at the end of this season, a compensation pick is headed our way. The Astros will pay a pro-rated portion of Wolf's salary, plus a bonus of $175,000 for for every start he makes up to his 30th start. What to take from this trade? Ed Wade convinced Drayton McLane to take on the contract of a pitcher who can help this season by filling in for Roy Oswalt while he's out and then taking the spot of Jack Cassell or Runelvys Hernandez once Roy returns. For having paid just over $3 million for his services, the Astros will be given a compensatory draft pick in the 2009 draft. Reineke was not thought of as much of a prospect, although he did earn the distinction of having the best slider of any Astros farmhand in 2007. As it stands now, this deal get the Dome-Dogs seal of approval.
Here is a link to a prior post of ours detailing what goes into determining whether a free agent qualifies their old club for compensation picks, if said free agent fails to re-sign. Good stuff to know for the next week, because every the mouth of every analyst is going to be brimming with this sort of talk like he's Mt. St. Helen's.
