Gut Feeling (Hopefully Wrong)

As I've obsessively checked MLBTradeRumors.com all day today between assignments, I've come to a terrible conclusion. It's a gut instinct, but I also called Adam Dunn's Granny last night, so apparently I'm en fuego(alright, not the hardest thing to do, but hey it impressed and angered several people around me).

Per this Ken Rosenthal Article and quote:

"Trade Miguel Tejada? The Astros, bless their delusional hearts, are thinking quite the opposite. They're buyers, not sellers, pursuing bullpen help even though they're buried in the National League standings...The team's only discussions about Tejada, the source says, involve his long-term position. Tejada, 34, eventually will need to move to third base, but the Astros have a strong third-base prospect at Class AA, Chris Johnson."

in conjunction with this atrocious Richard Justice blog post (honestly, the man cannot possess a spine and still turn this crap out). I'm calling us trading away better than his ERA suggests and future stud reliever/closer, Bud Norris, and now essentially worthless to us because our organization can't think long-term to save it's life, Chris Johnson, plus one of our MLB Bench Crew for a marginal bull pen arm from whatever team will say yes to Ed Wade first. I hope to God I'm wrong, but reading Justice's and Rosenthal's article with five minutes of each other made that snap together in my mind.

Regardless of whether we make such a terrible trade, I think I will forever hold hate in my heart for this fiasco. We have SO many movable pieces that people are interested in. We could truly restock our farm system (not to mention free up some dough on the general ledger) and in a few years have positive things to look forward to for many years to come. Instead, we're going to sign Ben Sheets to a bloated contract -- because he'll finally reach 200 IP on a World Series Championship team and therefore must be ready to be a long-term Ace, thereby jacking up his asking price (and our bidding price) -- so that we can "compete" in 2009. Depression doesn't even begin to describe what I'm feeling right now.

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Is Miguel Tejada Fatigued? Or Are We Just Lazy?

Earlier this week, I added to my list of things that Cecil Cooper has screwed up the fact that he just keeps playing Miguel Tejada all the time. It was an off the cuff reaction to what I was observing and reading. It might hold a grain of truth, but having looked into it further, I think that I might owe Cecil Cooper a semi-meaningful apology.

The impetus for this reflection came from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin, their fantasy expert, in an article in which he dissected anamolies in the SS market. Tejada has posted an ridiculous 25.3% LD rate through this point in the season. Given that LD% he should be sporting a .373 BABIP, which would put him back on the plain of his hot April start. The reason he hasn’t, is he is also meekly hitting 28.8% of his ball in play on the ground to his pull side, where, Normandin reports, he sports a .190 BA. My thoughts upon reading that, and Normandin even suggest to this to the reader too, was that he’s hitting so poorly due to fatigue. Which may still be true.
After mulling this over and trying to decide if my gut had been right earlier this week, I decided to look at his fielding stats (and no, not his Fielding Percentage) to see if he’s playing a lot worse because of his alleged fatigue. Towards the end of May, when I half-heartedly beat around the bush at saying that the Astros were due for a horrific collapse, Miguel Tejada was sporting a .873 RZR, good for 3rd in the NL among SS. This morning I decided to look at his RZR, simply as a means to confirm the Tejada fatigue theory. If it weren’t for the fact that I’d yet to finish my first cup of coffee, I would have been totally shocked, but he’s sporting a .872 RZR and leading all qualified NL SS. So where’s the fatigue?

In my humble opinion, the fatigue isn’t to blame -- though it may indeed be there. I think Tejada needs to make some sort of adjustment, however, in order to stay back on pitches so he stops taking 28.8% straight the opposing SS for a GIDP. If he can’t correct this, he needs to be slotted down in the line-up accordingly, because we can’t afford to have Berkman and Lee stranded because Miggy can’t swing the bat right now. The thing we all have to fear, is that Tejada has never sported such a high LD%, so if that deflates, we’re in serious trouble. It’s a little disappointing too, because how often do you hear of Player X and Y were taking extra BP or where in the cage trying make whatever adjustment to stay on their “A” game? I haven’t heard anything like that for Tejada and it’s frustrating that he gets to rest on the laurels of past performance instead of plow forward.

So Cecil Cooper, I’m sorry I unjustly accused you not understanding how to effectively manage Miguel Tejada’s playing time. But, I will still think you’re an idiot for keeping him in the “heart of the order.” So let’s work on that, please. While you’re at that, tell Tejada to get his jovial ass in the batting cage.

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Ed Wade Makes a Pretty Lousy Scape-Goat

The Astros suck. There’s really no debating it. There’s room for debate as to why they suck -- it could be luck, it could be terrible management, it could be declining ability, and lack of talent, but it’s not for lack of trying. I was excited when Ed Wade came to Houston; a lot of people weren’t. Evan and I had discussed Philadelphia’s center-fielder in waiting Michael Bourn several times at the trade deadline in ’07. We had heard of his tools spoken of highly from snippet’s like this:

“A couple of years ago, we might have gotten very, very excited about a player who posted a .379 translated OBP as a 21-year-old. Now we're only very excited about him. Bourn's plate discipline is outstanding, and it helps that he's a little bit undersized as 5'11", reducing the size of his strike zone. His stolen-base ability rates just about as high as it can: He not only has tremendous speed, but also instinctive technique on the basepaths, which led to perhaps the most impressive SB-CS ratio in minor league baseball. While he's not a natural center fielder, he certainly has the speed to handle the position, and should improve his routes over time.”
--Baseball Prospectus, 2005.

When the trigger was pulled by Ed Wade last fall, I caught it in an email at 10 o’clock while I was studying in the library. I raced out and immediately notified Evan, he was so overjoyed, he thought I was joking. On more than one occasion this winter, I defended the trade and I’ll still defend this trade for one reason: Michael Bourn is 25 years old and he’s just barely accumulated 300 PA at the major league level. Everyone knew Brad Lidge still had it, but he wouldn’t find it in Houston -- how do you sell that at the bargaining table to another GM though? I was just as big of fan of Luke Scott and his ability as anyone, but I believed (and still do) that in the long run, this was the right move for the team. Luke Scott is 30 and is at his peak, which finds him to be a streaky, but effective RF with average defensive capabilities. Michael Bourn is 25, has been rushed through the minor leagues, but has possessed three notable skills his entire life: working PA for walks or finding his pitch, stealing bases effectively, and defense. He hasn’t had a lot of time to adjust to major league pitching, but I fully believe his eye will catch up, he has two to five years to reach his “peak” and we’d be fools not to believe that will happen. Further, with proper management, he’d be a much more lethal steal threat, but he’s been encouraged to be reckless by an incompetent manager. In three years I think we will look back on this trade and be very pleased about having an outfield anchored by Pence and Bourn at the peak of their abilities, instead of Pence and two aged veterans on the way downside of their careers (Lee and Scott).

Flip-flopping Richard Justice had these unremarkable ten cents to throw in the debate:

The issue isn't whether Ed Wade got enough for Lidge. He didn't. There's hardly an argument to be made about that.
This evaluation will be subject to review if Michael Bourn becomes the impact player Wade believed he'd be at the time of the trade. With fewer than 500 career at-bats, Bourn might get there.

The day before, Justice had lambasted the Tejada deal, which was set in motion by the Bourn trade:

To Ed Wade's list of mistakes, add the name of Miguel Tejada. Put another $26 million on the general manager's tab.

However, his colleague Steve Campbell has the more intelligent and level-head view of Tejada’s woes and should be praised accordingly, as such characteristics are not often contained in Houston Chronicle ink. Cambell eloquently penned “Maybe Cooper decided he needed a day off from watching Miguel Tejada's heavy-legged pursuit of ground balls and sluggish swings of the bat.” Miguel is 34, and as Campbell points out, he can’t be the iron-man he was in his youth and still be remotely effective. Sometimes players have to swallow their pride and admit they’re human and in that light, Tejada needs to look to his former predecessor (some dude name Ripken), for a cue. Cooper on the other hand, has no excuse. I’m sick of Cecil Cooper getting off on “learning-curve” excuse. The man has been a coach or a manager for many, many years prior to his gig as a big-league manager -- there should be no learning curve for just about all the things he keeps screwing up.

Some of Ed Wade’s moves had the mark of a desperate man, but he was exactly that. I fully believe that the Bourn deal will play out as his best. Tejada was traded away for two hurt pitchers, an ineffective relief pitcher, and Luke Scott. If Tejada were to be used effectively, he would currently, along with Valverde, represent one of our two most expendable and prized trade chips heading into the trade deadline. The Dodgers need a SS with a bat desperately and the Red Sox desire both a SS and relief pitcher just as much, if not more. Ed Wade has options to shore up the Astros future if Drayton allows him to trade Valverde and if Tejada can put together a solid two weeks before the deadline, Drayton should allow him to be traded away too. Bourn, Pence, and Towles could be the foundation of the next generation of Astros, and they could have an excellent supporting cast if Ed Wade can strike while the iron’s hot. If he can’t than Drayton will continue to shoulder the blame for the organization tanking. It’s not Ed Wades fault the Astros are awful this year. Drayton gave him a no win situation and Cecil Cooper has done literally everything in his power to stymie the effectiveness of our pitching staff and our offense. Right now Astros fans might want Ed Wade’s head, but they should probably direct their rage towards Coop and Drayton before they go after Ed.

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What the HELL are they thinking?

Why on earth would you bench your competent defensive shortstop when you are starting your ground ball pitcher who relies heavily on defense?? Anyone? Because it just led to a 2-runs in 2/3 of inning. This just chaps my ass.\

**UPDATE TOP OF THE 4TH**

We're down 2-6 after a Lance Berkman 2 RBI single, preceded by Kaz Matsui's head hunting line drive through Lincecum, and Pence making Randy Winn sees stars on the RF wall. I'm still pissed that we should only be down 4-2, WE SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TWO RUNS. WHY WOULD YOU START SOMEONE AT SHORT WHO HASN'T PLAYED MEANINGFUL SS IN MONTHS WITH CHRIS SAMPSON ON THE MOUND??? Chris Sampson isn't that great of a pitcher; he's as good as the defense that's behind him. Further, we're facing one of the best RHP in the league--why would you take away on of your best offensive threats?

As I typed, Mark Loretta just ripped a line-drive single to LF to bring in Lance: 3-6. At this point we should only be down a run. I still could just kick Cecil Cooper square in the nuts.

It's the end of the 4th now. Chris has to be sharp this inning, because we have a depleted bull pen courtesy of Coop "managing like it was Game 7 of the World Series" last night (JD's words). This team is the thick of things in the NL Central and in the Wild Card...why is Coop conceding games??

**UPDATE 5TH INNING**

Chris was solid in his frame...until Mark Loretta botched a throw to Lance, another run that shouldn't be on the board. Furor at an all time high so far.

**UPDATE MIDDLE OF THE 6TH**

Hopefully we're going to get the Giants bull pen...Carlos stole a base, which was entertaining to watch. At this point I'm just apathetic to baseball.

Great article about the future of baseball analysis.

**UPDATE TOP OF THE 8TH 1 OUT**

It's tied 7-7, Erstad hit a monster homerun, after Carlos Lee went yard, Blum reached on a WP K, and Loretta singled. I was listening to the game in my car, as I went to run an errand. I was livid that Erstad was in to PH, then the radio goons (seriously those guys suck) rattled off his numbers in AT&T Park. It was glorious hearing the call, so much so that I almost got in a car wreck. After my joy subsided, I realized that we should be winning the damn ball game though. We better win this game or I'll call for Coops balls. Seriously, this team is so good right now, too good to concede games based on pitching match-ups alone. Frustrations aside, good ball game now...GOD I HOPE WE HOLD ON TO IT! If Loretta makes an error, I don't know if I can stand it.

**TOP OF THE 9TH**
Lance Berkman continues his torrid pace by going yard off Brian Wilson. I love Lance, still could kick Coop in the crotch, and I'm excited for what develops after Carlos Lee's single. I'd still like to note that the score should be 4-8.

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The Astros, They're So Hot Right Now

Incase my lame movie reference failed, it's Mugatu from Zoolander. Ok, Pop-culture references will be shelved now. For we college students, it's officially summer and the Astros have continued sizzle--big time. Lance is setting all sorts of records for his streak and thus far has exhibited no signs of cooling off, though a nagging leg injury could spell cooler temperatures for Lance. While Lance has been the main attraction with his bat, we should not overlook the fact that Lance has been, to date, the best defensive first baseman in all of MLB, with an outstanding RZR of .926. Yes, not only has Lance hit better than everyone in MLB, he's also played better defense than anyone at his position, including the much lauded Albert Pujols (the guy who won the gold glove last year). Right now, it appears that the NL MVP award is a two man race between Berkman and Utley, however, it is only mid-May, but an exciting prospect none-the-less.

However, while we could analyze Lance's bat and glove all day, the thing I want to focus on today, is the Astros as a team. We've done a few 10-Game Recaps, trying to analyze the changes in key stats that allow us to predict where the Astros fortunes might end up. These, however, have been pretty skin deep, with a focus on Offense and pitching only. So today, I'm going to attempt to break down the Astros as a Team, in lieu of doing another 10 Game Recap tomorrow, as they seem to have a very tepid response so far. I'm using stats available from the Hard Ball Times, an excellent site that provides a treasure trove of statistics, research, and analysis for free.

Courtesy of the Hardball Times' Team Reports, a look at the Astros record in terms of XW-L reveals that Astros are not a product of luck and their 22-17 record is in line with their runs scored/allowed. This good news, but looking at the Cubs and Cardinals record is a mixed bag of news. The Good News: The Cardinals are 1 game ahead of their XW-L, and in general seem to be due to come back to earth, and probably already are. That fact puts the Astros in 2nd place in the NL Central. However, the Bad News: the Cubs are 2 games below their XW-L, and should instead be at 25-13, making us 3.5 games behind the NL Central leader is hypothetical terms.

Breaking down the offense, we can see that the Astros are improving their OBP, but are still below league average with .321 mark, but by being 5th in the NL in slugging (.422) they've managed to post a league average OPS of .743, and keep the offense moving, simply by hitting the tar out of the baseball. While OBP is down, it is interesting to note that the Astros are 7th in the NL (and exactly league average) at P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) 3.82 P/PA. That's a pretty good rate and portends to either a higher BB% or is just a indication that they seem to have be able work the count, waiting for the right pitch. Either way, it assuages fears that our offense will collapse. Perhaps cautionary, the 'Stros have hit .292 with RISP and only .265 overall. Maybe they're exhibiting clutchness or it could be harbinger of a deflating offense unless the hits keep coming when we have men on.

The one thing that we have overlooked this year when talking about pitching, is how much this team is getting killed by the long ball. We have well above average K/9 (7.0), better than average BB/9 (3.3), and are league average in GB% (44%) and LD% (19%), we've even stranded more runners than any other pitching staff in the league with a LOB% of 77%, but when it comes to HR/8 we're tops with 1.3 HR/9. Correlated to that, we also lead the league in .SLG allowed with .453, well above the league average of .408. I'm at a loss to explain the HR's, because we have excellent rate stats that indicate strong control. I guess when we're making mistakes, we're just getting punished for them big time. I'd imagine that this has to be a fluke of some sort, and via mechanics being corrected or luck evening out, will drop. As such, given our strong rate stats, the staff appears to be much better than expected so far and due for some improvement in the ERA department.

Finally, and what I feel is the most important part of this team that has been overlooked, is their defense. The team owns a .847 RZR, which is second in the NL, second only to the Cardinals. It's been outstanding so far, especially given all the pre-season doubts about Tejada's glove, Bourn's maturity in the field, and Carlos' waist-line. Speaking of Lee and Bourn, consider this the fact that Astros own an above average Out-Field RZR in the NL with a .910, while having the second worst LFer (Lee, RZR of .804). The infield is tied for second in the NL with an RZR of .810, second again to the Cardinals. Over the off-season, we observed a few Astros-centric blogs, and one in particular, that chastised this teams defense over and over again. Their main fears were that Lance was a bad 1B, Tejada would look like Carlos Lee at SS, and that the hot corner would be devoid of anything you could begin to call adequate defense. Tejada has posted a .873 RZR (good for 3rd in the NL behind the injured Tulowitzki and the Brave’s Yunel Escobar), Lance, as we already mentioned is the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, and the hot corner has been average (Wigginton .711) to above average (Blum .756).

So here’s the quick and dirty of it: This team has been getting the hits that count, when they count, which so long as their plate discipline remains, should hold true. Our pitching has been very good with the exception of the long ball, which one has to assume that will even out of the season--leaving just solid pitching. Our gloves have been great; they’ve been exceptional in some areas, average in others, and just pitiful for Carlos Lee. This looks like a team that is capable of staying the course, they’re confident, capable of winning games in any way (just look at the Dodgers series) and if anything, have room for some improvement still. In sum, we look like a contender, which in the end is all we could hope for and more than a lot of us expected.

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Playing by "The Book"

Yesterday, I had the very delightful treat of sitting 4 rows back on the third-base line, just passed the Rockies Dugout. The seats were excellent, the company the best, and the Astros come-back victory was frustrating, but incredible. While I could hem and haw about how I don't like the current line-up, in the end, line-ups aren't that important (see: Billy Martin). Instead, I'm going to focus on the bottom of the 8th.

Brian Fuentes came into the ball game, which was a good omen for me, because the last time I was at Minute Maid and he came into the ball game, Mark Loretta hit a walk-off HR. His first batter, Hunter Pence. If ever Pence was going to get a big hit, it was against the erratic lefty, and after a 1-2 count, he hit a flier into Center for a single. In comes JR Towles, he of the .429/.636/.857 split stat against lefties, with the Astros looking at a .783 Run-Expectancy (the number of runs expected to score, given the historic data of runner's scoring in that exact game state, in this case, a runner on 1st, with no outs) and a Win-Expectancy of 41.1% (meaning that historically, a home team trailing by two-runs in the bottom of the 8th inning that get their lead runner on with no outs have gone on to win 41.1% of the time). So in steps a man who slugs over .800 against lefties, hits of .400 against lefties, and gets on base an astounding 64% of the time...AGAINST LEFTIES. Seriously, just read through line again...that makes Barry Bonds drool. So what does Coop do...he throws the book at Fuentes and calls for the Sac-Bunt.

ANECDOTE: So I see Towles square to bunt, and an a few obscenities fly. My virulent anger is further stoked by the fact that the numbers I just quoted you loomed on the jumbotron in Right as JR squared to bunt. My question is: Does Coop need his Rx changed on the glasses, because as I saw it we had a man who crushes lefties, facing a a lefty who is known for his struggles; what more could the man ask for? Everyone around me was perplexed and I will now attempt to explain:

a)Why I was livid
and
b)Exactly how lucky we got

So Towles drops down a bunt, is thrown out at first and Pence is safe at second. The Astros now had a Run-Expectancy (RE) of .699 and Win-Expectancy (WE) of 36.6%. We let a person who has just one of the most distinct split-stats possible against Left-Handed Pitching drop down and sacrifice bunt to decrease our odds of tying the game and decrease our odds of winning the game, while facing a LEFT-HANDED PITCHER!!! On what planet does that make sense? Say Towles simply got a hit, or just a walk that moves Pence to second with no outs, our RE would have been 1.38, meaning we would have doubled the RE.

There we were, Pence on Second, 1 out, and in comes Mark Loretta to Pinch-Hit, he draws a 4-0 BB, which because it was the sloppiest pitching of the day, incensed me even more, given that we WASTED an out when Fuentes was struggles-city. So with Loretta on First and Pence still on second, the WE goes to 41.2%. Please think about that for a second. We wasted an out to get back to the exact same WE. We also wasted an out to get the RE to .888. So one out later we've added to the probability that we'll tie the game, marginally.

In comes Michael Bourn, who as a left-handed hitter has .179/.273/.503 against left-handed pitching...Mario Mendoza, eat your heart out. I guess it's hard to fault Coop for not pinch-hitting for Bourn given that I can't think of who we could have put up there and Bourn's obvious defensive value...but still, I'm hung up on the fact that he made Towles create an out when Towles CRUSHES lefties. So Bourn, grounds into a 1-3, but moves Loretta and Pence over. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs. The RE is .611. Yes, we are now at the lowest point of the inning as far as RE goes, and our WE is 34%. Are you beginning to comprehend the insane cost of that Sac-Bunt and of that precious out that was WASTED?

What happened next could be called clutch, but I've already done a far bit of talking about clutch and luck, so I'm calling it Luck. Kaz Matsui worked the count full and then banged out a single to left field. Hunter Pence and Mark Loretta score. Our WE sky-rockets from 34% to 84% on that single. Remember too that we had an expected Run value of .611 runs, and managed to drive in two, and the later 3 on Tejada's double. We got insanely lucky. Just look at the graph of our WE throughout the game. Whether you believe in clutch or luck, you have to admit, what happened was highly improbable (which, of course, the numbers attest too). 2-out rallies happen, but they're luck more than skill. Players who crush left-handed pitching generally crush left-handed pitching, no matter what.

Of course everyone who had heard me curse Cecil Cooper for calling for that bunt gave me some form of a smug-I-told-you-so type look, but at least you and I know that we just lucked out. More than that we all have a better appreciation for the supreme value of an out.

Sources:
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2008-04-20&team=Astros&dh=0
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=4842

**UPDATE**
Wholly unrelated to the post, but absolutely incredible nonetheless:

The Best Chicago Cubs rant, EVER

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Miguel Tejada, You just got Punkd!

Having a hot Latina Pop-star for a Wife: Totally Sweet
Winning the 2004 Home-Run Derby: Who isn't Jealous?
Winning the 2002 AL MVP: Not to Shabby
Getting totally humiliated on national TV: PRICELESS.


So not only does Miguel Tejada get traded for a day before he appears in the Mitchell Report, he now gets busted for lying to get a contract. While he certainly tread some morally gray waters, I can't say I don't blame the man for doing what he had to do to get into the MLB. In fact, I don't even care that he lied, Billy Beane and co. should've done some better homework, I mean if some jerk-off at E60 can do it, you'd assume they could've too.

The thing that totally chaps my ass about the whole ordeal is this: How often when the Mitchell Report came up did you see Roger Clemens and Andy Petite wearing Astros' uniforms on ESPN? I can recall Roger being in the Astros' uniform on the front page of ESPN.com with some sort of tawdry steroid headline right above it. I mean for guys who spent three years with an organization when their careers have spanned a decade and decade plus respectively, was that necessary? Did the E60 guy have to sit down with Miggy in his Astros uniform and bait him into making an ass of himself? Why didn't they try to do this when he was Baltimore, when get got his contract or after he got implicated by Palmeiro? Everyone knows the huge East Coast sport's bias that fuels ESPN, but really was pulling this stunt with Miguel Tejada or the afformentioned unnecessary linkage of steriod-Roger with the Astros? As much as I love sports and baseball especially, network television kind of ruins it (however, FSN or RSN type networks' coverage of sporting events is actually a HELL of a lot better than ESPN, FOX, TNT, etc) To quote the brilliant Gary Huckabee:

ESPN’s brass has lost all faith in sports as drama. This I don’t get, but it appears to be the case. The addition of music-video editing patterns, bad pseudo-metal soundtracks, and visual augmentation of highlights, and the cringe-worthy hip banter between anchors slightly too old to really be using urban lingo has made SportsCenter a test of endurance, not a destination on the dial...like MTV before it, ESPN seems to be convinced that the hype around the core of the offering is of more utility than the core offering itself. I mean, who the hell came up with “Who’s Now?”, and why weren’t they summarily beaten with a big-ass sack of oranges? And why didn’t one of the “talent” speak up and say “You must be joking, right? I’m not doing that crap.” If, before, anyone had even grudging respect for Stuart Scott and all the unindicted co-conspirators who served on the panels, I hope you’ve had the good sense to write them off as the empty and fungible vessels they are. Admit it—it’d be pretty cool to have the anchors off-camera, doing a voice over of what comes up on the teleprompter, and have a turnip, motionless, on the anchor desk. Would the viewer experience be worse? What percentage of the audience would comment that Scott Van Pelt “looks a little jaundiced this evening”?

Simply summed, while Miguel Tejada's age certainly might factor into his baseball-ability, it doesn't seem to this year so far and it's hard to blame the man for lying to get out of extreme poverty when MLB's millions came knockin' at his door. What we should all be disgusted with is ESPN's inability to do anything besides come up with this kind of "To Catch a Predator" rip off.

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Let it out

Sometimes, you just gotta vent. Sabermetrics are fine and dandy. Stephen and I usually write objective, statistically based articles that we hope make people think and perhaps look a little more into the subject.

This is not one of those articles.

After "watching" the game on MLB.com, he and I both came to the same conclusion: this team looks the same as it always has. Sporadic hitting. A bullpen that can't hold a lead or positive momentum. In the end: losses to the Cardinals. Change the players, the general manager, the manager. Same 'ol, same 'ol.

Yes. They battled back. But the Cardinals do not have the talent we do. Brad Thompson, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer. Come on now. We're not sending Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux out there either, but we knew that coming in. Ed Wade built this team around offense and our bullpen. Six hits on offense. Three earned runs in five innings of relief work, including four walks and two homeruns. Worst of all, we let their most legitimate, proven bat beat us. Albert Pujols is to the Juice Box what Leif Erikson was to the Eastern seaboard of Canada. He comes uninvited and does what he pleases with whomever he pleases.

As long as THE homerun, THE Lidge crouch afterwards, and Andy Pettitte's look of horror and exasperated "On my God" live on in Houston sports infamy, seemingly so too will the inability of the Astros to ever truly assert their will on those teams that we consider our rivals. The Cardinals came in as a team that was out manned on paper, yet they walk away with another series win.

In the next few days, we will post an article detailing the Astros first ten games of the season. Three up, seven down. Not quite the start we were looking for, but Michael Bourn and Miguel Tejada have impressed. Bourn changes the complexion of the game with only a slight lead off of first base. Tejada snagged victory from near defeat, both with his glove and bat on Monday. Starting pitching has been on the whole a bright spot, and I'll delve into the specifics more in the aforementioned Re-cap article. There is a lot of work to be done. Thankfully, the cliche holds: it's a marathon, not a sprint.

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New Year, New Line-up, New Format

So, we dropped the ball. We let school, internships, and life get in the way of the blog, but it wasn’t all our fault -- well not intentionally anyways. We didn’t think the format through, and we let that kill our passion for the blog and squandered the 200 readers we had a day.

We’re sorry.

So here is the game plan: This preview on opening day. One post after every ten games. A bonus end of the month round up. And an extended All-Star Break assessment. Look for the posts to be more than just some lame game summaries, instead these will be packed with insightful analysis bolstered with meaningful statistics.

So without ado, and because it is opening day, we present our season preview:

Look Out San Diego --

I feel dizzy. My head is spinnin’….how could yours not be after this past off-season and spring training? Regardless of whether we can keep ours, balance will be the name of the game for the 2008 Houston Astros. GM Ed Wade came, saw, and he dismantled. Who can blame him? Let’s lay out a few the pertinent facts of 2007, to see what faced Mr. Wade after Craig was carried off on the city’s collective shoulders:

Team Runs Scored: 723, 13th in the NL
Team OPS: .742, 11th in the NL

Team ERA: 4.68, 12th in the NL
Saves/Save Opportunities: 35/55 = 63.6%

Use any stat lines you’d like, the fact of the matter is that this team’s performance was abysmal in 2007. The Astros tried living off of their successes in 2004 and 2005 for too long, and in doing so, were forced to come to grips with a 73-89 record that marked just their second losing season in the past eleven.

Without re-hashing old mistakes or assigning blame, change was in order, and time was of the essence. Simply bringing in Carlos Lee and Woody Williams would not suffice this off-season. The man who built the Philadelphia Phillies team that made the dramatic (and concededly lucky) division title push, would be confronted with the challenge.

Starting Pitching

Determined not to overspend, and seeing no viable options in the trade market, the Astros head into 2008 with familiar faces, Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe and Chris Sampson as starters:

Expect Roy to be his typical work-horse self and despite many people’s prognostications of declining K-rates, we argue that you expect over 7 K/9. Roy admittedly let the K’s go early last year with Adam Everett backing him and then turned it back on with his early, bone-crunching, exit. With this offense behind him, 20 wins with in his reach.

Wandy Rodriguez was one of the Unluckiest pitchers last year (luck is measured by his peripheral stats, like K/9, K/BB, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) with a PERA of 3.87 to his actuall 4.58. Look for those peripherals to hold and a much more balanced home/road Wandy to perform as a solid number two pitcher (though hopefully the oblique strain was an anomaly).

We all know and love Backe for his team spirit and tenacity on the mound. His quick recovery from Tommy John has been a blessing and his September starts hopefully carry over. Backe should be a better than average pitcher. Look for many quality starts.

Chris Sampson started off the 2007 Season with whispers of ROY, but elbow trouble go the best of him. A healthy Sampson should give us serviceable work if he can over come the weak left side of the infield this year.

Wait a minute…aren’t we missing a certain aged Houstonian?? As our luck would have it, no we are not. Woody Williams was released over the weekend. Ed Wade convinced Drayton to eat the remaining 6 million dollar plus left on his contract. Going 0-3, with an 11 plus ERA in the spring did not do much to help assuage fears that his 2007 season was a late career bump in the road.

Nevertheless, Shawn Chacon was signed to a reasonable one year contract and will be inserted as our fourth starter for the time being. Felipe Paulino will miss the first month of the season with a pinched nerve, but will surely be counted on to become part of this rotation before the season in over.

Starting pitching clearly will not be a strength in 2008. With a farm system that’s barren, and a trade market that was unwelcoming, not a whole lot could have been done in the area. We need only look north to the Texas Rangers to see what overpaying for free agent starters (Chan Ho Park, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Kevin Millwood) can do to a team’s ability to play winning baseball. Ed Wade took note of this and instead sought to make change where he could.

The Bullpen

Ed Wade is known in baseball circles for his propensity to sign/trade for relief pitchers with the abandon of a Carlos Lee going after the last post game shrimp scampi. My attempts at humor aside, that tradition was not broken in his first off season in charge of the Astros. As touched on earlier, the 2007 Astros simply could not nail down games when push came to shove. A 64 percent conversion percentage by your team’s set-up men (in our case Mr. Qualls and Mr. Wheeler) and closer (Mr. Lidge) translates into inconsistent and ultimately losing baseball. Couple that with our less than stellar starting pitching, and a recipe for disaster was apparent.

If it’s consistency you desire in a set up man, then Doug Brocail is just what the doctor ordered. With a career ERA of 3.99, Brocail will be asked to preserve leads heading into the 9th inning. After having a rejuvenating year in the San Diego bullpen last year, Brocail enjoyed the expansive Petco parameters to the tune of a 3.05 ERA, while giving up only 66 hits in 76 and 2/3 of a inning.

Chad Qualls was and will probably remain a very good late inning pitcher. That cannot be debated. However, of his 82 hits given up last year 10 were home runs (the same number given up in 2006). Strikingly inconsistent at times, Qualls has the stuff to be among the best relief pitchers in baseball. His rate stats are impeccable (K/9 of above 8, and a K/BB ratio of above 3.0), but his mental makeup leaves more to be desired. Brocail himself gave up 8 long balls last year, but only a combined 13 in the last four.

The loss of Qualls was mitigated by the fact that, well, he was traded with positional vagabond Chris Burke for Jose Valverde. The NL saves leader this past season, Valverde was a catalyst for the Diamondbacks run to the top of the Western Division. His 47 saves (in 54 opportunities) mean that he blew less saves in twice the amount of opportunities than Brad Lidge. He is under contract with the Astros for at least the next two seasons, a big plus.

The last major piece of bullpen change came about early in the off season. Josh “.650 OPS or bust” Anderson was shipped out to Atlanta for middle relief man Oscar Villareal. He was immediately signed to a multi-year contract, and will be used as primarily a seventh inning pitcher, but has experience setting up the closer as well. Regardless of what happens with Villareal, Ed Wade turned a middling (that’s too kind….below replacement level? Yea….that’s better) outfielder and came up with a reliever who can help solidify a part of this team that needs to be excellent in order to compete.

Relievers are not a dime a dozen, either in price or availability. There is nothing more frustrating than having a starter pitch well, only to have the lead given up by a guy who should be changing my coolant at Jiffy Lube. Brandon Backe, Chris Sampson and Shawn Chacon will not be expected or needed to pitch deeper into games than they are able to, either. The old baseball adage about making the game shorter with your bullpen is a proven method to winning, and hopefully it can be duplicated this season.
Geoff Geary (who came over in the Lidge trade), Dave Borkowski and Wesley Wright (Rule V draftee) have not been mentioned, but combine those three with the three new editions, and this bullpen should offer the flexibility and consistency that the team makeup demands in order to be a respectable 2008 squad.

What to expect at the plate

Like the bullpen, our everyday lineup has seen a near complete overhaul from 2007. Only Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee remain from last season’s opening day lineup. Fan favorites Luke Scott and Mike Lamb are no longer with the team. Opposing pitcher favorites Adam Everett (free agency), and Brad Ausmus (now a reserve) are either no longer with the team or can only hurt the offense in a limited capacity. Top to bottom, things should look like this:

1) Homegrown outfielder Michael Bourn is set to take his career .340 OBP to the top of the lineup to serve as the main catalyst for the offense. After being a reserve/defensive replacement in Philadelphia, Bourn is here to get on base for the sluggers behind him. He will be able to use his speed (17 stolen bases in 18 chances in 2007) to put pressure on opposing pitchers as well. I am not a tremendous fan of the stolen base, but, with percentages like his, this is a high reward, low risk situation that is rarely seen in baseball. Although a majority of steals occurred while not being held on at first in late game scenarios, Bourn still stands to steal upwards of 40 bases this year. Additionally, he is fine defensive outfielder from most accounts, which is good, considering our leftfielder will never be confused with Barry Bonds circa 1993. Bottom line with this guy is that he’s 25, under our control for years to come and will only improve as he gets more experience. An OPS of around .720 is not out of the question. After two years of struggling to get men on base at the top of our lineup, Bourn will seek to prove himself ready and able.

2) Due to circumstances beyond his control, presumptive number two hitter Kazuo Matsui will miss at least the first two weeks of the season after surgery for…anal fissures? What? Did “The Onion” come up with this? Well, as it stands, Kazzy will be out for the count, letting Hunter Pence man the two spot. Arguably the lone on the field bright spot the Astros had last year, Pence smashed Astro rookie records for slugging percentage and extra base hits. He has everything lined up nicely for himself to surpass those numbers. As he begins his first full season as a major leaguer, Pence still has much to learn about how to be a big league hitter. This shouldn’t stop him from being a 25 HR/25 SB man. Couple that with 80-85 Runs and RBI, and Hunter stands as an unquestionable star in the making. Projected to max out in the OPS range of .890 in the next four to five years, his is a horse that this organization will hitch their wagon to for years to come.

3) Ahhh, a familiar face. After all, is that what we as Astros fans like? Familiarity? Uncle Drayton (to borrow a phrase of Lisa’s) sure does. And from what we’ve learned this off-season, number three hitter Lance Berkman does as well. He let it be known that he didn’t like having to acclimate himself to a new clubhouse. While Morgan Ensberg may have been a great gin rummy player, the fact remains that Lance’s new teammates in the lineup are improvements over the old stalwarts. I won’t go so far as to say that they will help “protect” him (a concept that contrary to Joe Morgan’s assertions, does not exist), but he should have more chances to knock in runs. Lance cames off the most disappointing 30/100 season in recent memory. Unless it takes him two months to collect more than two doubles again this year, Lance will surpass his .880 OPS and be the super star performer that he has been in years past. An on base machine, Lance still has four good years left in him. Also, we wouldn’t have thought so after watching him flail about on Tal’s Hill in the past, but Lance is an above average defensive player. With fears of diminished range on the left side of the infield, Lance’s unsung talents at first base may be among his most important.

4) Another familiar face, Carlos Lee is slated to bat cleanup for this year’s squad. Coming off another solid, if not spectacular year, Lee led the 2007 team in RBI, total plate appearances and hits. It is difficult to justify a 6 yr/$100 million dollar deal, but Lee did as much to approach that value as he could, given his career statistics. We all know the schtick against him: he is a poor (I’m being generous) defensive outfielder who also drew the ire of Craig Biggio after not always hustling to first base after hitting assumed ground ball outs. This is the man who will also see the largest regression in the next few years, as his “big man” skills will diminish more quickly than a more athletic player. So, yes, lambaste Drayton for overpaying for offense. But in the overall scheme of this team, like it or not, is to win now. I’m admittedly trying to shine the best light on Carlos, but as it stands, anything can and has happened. *(see: Cardinals, The St. Louis. 2006)

5) How do you think the conversation went down? Maybe something like this:

The Scene: December 13th, 2007. A spacious office on Crawford Street, Houston, Texas. A content middle aged man surfs the internet while chatting on his cell phone. In walks an older associate with a grim look on his face.

Tal Smith: Hey, Ed. D’you get a chance to look at the Mitchell Report yet?

Ed Wade: Not yet. I haven’t done much yet today. After making the trade for Miggy yesterday, I’m pretty tuckered out.

T.S.: Yea speaking of Miguel…that’s sorta what I came in here for. You may want to check out the report.

E.W.: All right, all right. (Smith stands in the doorway as Wade sifts through the initial pages of the document. An exasperated look comes upon Wade’s face as he sees Miguel Tejada’s name mentioned more than forty times.)

E.W.: Do you remember where I put the receipt?

So, it may not have gone exactly like that, but the nature of the trade for SS Miguel Tejada had an odd element of timing to it. Tejada was traded for on December 12th, and was named the following day in the release of the Mitchell Report. Wade claims to have had no idea about the imminence of his outing, but no baseball fan worth his salt can truly believe him in this regard. As far back as 2003 when Rafael Palmiero attached his name to steroids, Tejada has been under a cloud of suspicion.

On the field, Tejada will be expected to improve on the Astros offense from the SS position (a house plant has a shot to nail this requirement down) and play……well, just play defense. A still deadly pull hitter, the winner of the 2004 All Star Home Run Derby should again be able to find his stroke to the tune of a 25 HR season. On the books for the next years at nearly twenty million per, Mr. Tejada has much to prove. Adam Everett was a fan favorite. He was squeaky clean off the field, and a smooth defensive player on it. The fact that he couldn’t sniff a .700 OPS to save his life didn’t seem to matter. Perhaps his ineptitude was overshadowed by that of Brad Ausmus. Regardless, Miguel Tejada is still a thumper extraordinaire. We should be able to get another two near All Star caliber years out of him, and then send him on his way.

6) Perhaps the least sexy Astros positional player, Ty Wigginton will begin 2008 as the Astros everyday third sacker. Gone are the days of the double headed attack of Mike Lamb and Morgan Ensberg. Lamb has moved on to greener pastures on the Astroturf of Minnesota, and Mo is dancing on the line between Yankee reserve and farmhand. Wigginton is a professional hitter, plain and simple. A man who’s splits (.287 against RHP and .269 against LHP) are much more reasonable than either of the aforementioned Astros, Wigginton will have the opportunity to play nearly everyday. Unspectacular yet efficient, a .800 plus OPS will be a treat from either the six or seven hole. Another pull hitter, the folks in the Crawford Boxes should expect more Landry’s gift cards courtesy of Ty.

7) A breath of fresh air. The exuberance of youth. Whatever phrase you like, J.R. Towles is embodies that much and more. A September call up in 2007, Towles impressed with an 8 RBI performance against the Cardinals, while showing poise in his game calling. He still has a lot of room for growth defensively, but with Officer Ausmus showing him the ropes, he couldn’t have a better teacher. When it comes to hitting, it’s Ausmus who should have the notebook out. Towles has the stroke of a doubles hitter who should be able to find the gaps and use his superlative speed to take the extra base. Possibly the only catcher outside of Chavez Ravine who can hit double digit homers and swipe double digit bases, J.R.’s growth will be among the most important for the Astros in 2008. How he learns to handle the pitching staff, his ability to get on base at the bottom of the lineup and the leadership qualities he gleans from the veterans in front of him will be paramount in the future successes of this club. An OPS of .760 this year, with many years of over .800 in his future, Mr. Towles stands ready to take up the challenges of being a starting catcher in the bigs

8) We all know the story at second base. A man who needs no introduction. A standout at Seton Hall Unive…Sorry. Had to catch myself there. Taking the place of future Cooperstowner Craig Biggio are two familiar faces (Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum) and the aforementioned free agent addition Kazuo Matsui. Loretta and Blum are similar players both defensively (limited range) and offensively (will struggle to get on base). However much they may struggle to get on, it is very likely they will do so with greater propensity than Kaz Matsui. Kaz, he of the hyper-inflated home/road split, parlayed an excellent second half of 2007 into a big time free agent contract. Ed, I’ve defended you against those who have doubted you all off-season long as intelligent, but I cannot do so here. This was a move to attach the Astros to a bit of the magic that surrounded the Colorado Rockies’ run to the NL pennant. A simple search of his home batting average last season (.330) and road counterpart (.249) would indicate that the Coors Field affect is in full play with Kazzy. That being said, even Matt Holiday had a .780 OPS away from the park with the pine trees. Regardless, he’s here and he’s our second baseman. Matsui is a package that offers plus speed on the base-paths and range defensively. However, it’s difficult to deny the fact that Ed Wade overestimated his abilities, and this team will have to bite the financial bullet for this overestimation.

As for our reserves, Spring Training is basically the showcase for who will be a team’s bench contributors. Jose Cruz, Jr., Darrin Erstad and Brad Ausmus will be front and center in this regard. Cruz and Ausmus hit well in the Spring, and Erstad has a World Series victory to his credit.

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