How the Astros Line-Up

I found this awesome tool at Baseball Musings. Basically, it uses some advanced statistical modeling to allow you to plug in nine player's on base percentages and slugging averages into the model and then, after some thinking, it'll spit back a line-up that will optimize your run-scoring probability. It also provides about a dozen or so other line-ups and their predicted run-scored values, as well as a dozen or so ways you could construct the line-up to suppress run scoring.

As the Astros were getting schlacked 4-1 through the first inning last night, I plugged into the model our line-up, with Brad Ausmus catching, for 2008, with each players exact OBP and SLG as they were through 6/30/08.

This was the best combo:




It was a little depressing, but intriguing none the less. I was especially depressed to see that our line-up, as it has been for most of the season (Bourn, Matsui, Tejada, Berkman, Lee, Pence, Wigginton, Ausmus, Pitcher Du Jour), comes out to about 4.3 runs scored. Remember this is the average runs-scored that would be expected from this line-up, not there maximum potential. To try your hand at it, see the numbers or to take a look through all of the results (the worst line-up combo's are pretty spectacular) cick here (it takes a little while to load, so be patient). Feel free to play around with it, substituting some bench guys or a projections to see what you come up with, and let me know how it turns out

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HALF WAY!!

Back in the day, when I fancied myself a pseudo athlete (I ran track and cross country and to this day, I insist they're not sports), I remember that Matt Munoz, the best runner on the team, would scream, "HALF WAY!!" in the middle of long-runs and intervals. While I don't know for sure why exactly he did it, it usually inspired two emotions in me: fear or determination. Whether it was fear or determination depended on how I was doing at that point in the run/workout.

So, the Astros are, "HALF WAY!!" plus one, through their 2008 season. My question is, should this inspire fear or determination in us? Let's take stock of our present and then disect the past, to discuss the future.

Yesterday afternoon, we finished off our third straight series win over the AL. Two series victories over the top team in the AL East is a feat that seemed impossible as recently as two weeks ago when the team was getting swept out of Baltimore. However incredible the last week has been, the fact is that the Astros have been a disappointment for 50% of the 2008 season. A 39-43 disappointment, to be exact. What follows is a break down of some key statistics through the first 82 games to analyze how we’ve gotten to where we are. Hopefully, these will paint a picture of what we might expect for the next 80 games we play.

Here's the quick and dirty of where we rank with our stats in terms of the rest of the National League with our offense:

Tied for 5th in BA
15 (Second to Last) in OBP
9th in OPS

Next, a chart of how our hitters (pitchers have been excluded) have performed at the plate through the first 81:



The last time we took a meaningful look at the Astros numbers at the team level, was May 13th. We were tearing it up, and everyone in baseball loved us. I urged for cautious optimism, because the only aspect offensively that we were doing exceptionally well at was hitting .292 with men in scoring position. As you can see, we're now actually hitting worse, on average, with men in scoring position then we are overall. Which goes a long way to explain our absymal month of June. Our ISO has also totally fallen off, indicating that our bats just are not generating the power that they once were. A 19% line drive percentage coupled with a BABIP below .300 should inspire some optimism for an increase in offensive production for the second half. Carlos Lee in particular has a rather low BABIP, but a respectable 18.2% LDP, we're begining to see his BABIP fall in line with his LD% even, and with the revamped line-up it should help us produce more than the 2 or 3 runs a game we did for most of June. The absurdly low OBP is still troubling. As long as it stay's low, we'll have to rely on hitting well in with men in scoring position, because our opportunities to produce runs will be fleating. All in all, things should get better in the offensive department, but it won't be anything to write home about.


To the pitching:



What should jump off the stat sheet is the pitching staff's ridiculous HR/RB ratio. A majority of Astros pitchers have a tendency to induce a great deal of fly balls (probably wasn't the ideal rotation to create for MMP), but when fifteen percent of them are leaving the yard, you have to just shake your head. There are two ways to look at this development. While it's not as if their BABIP is just outlandishly high, a LD% of 20% is startling to see, especially when it's coupled with our HR/FB. Opposing hitters are getting in some good swings, which is most likely apparent to anyone who follows the Astros. More important than the HR's perhaps, are the line drives, which have a greater chance of going for extra bases than do ground balls or fly balls, thus putting runners in scoring position with relative frequency. However, and oddly enough, the Astros staff has the second best LOB% at 74%. Given that we should see the LD% drop down a tick and the FB stay in the yard more often as well, there's room for the hope that our pitching should improve a pretty good deal in the second half. This definitely surprised me.

As we noted last time, the defense has been phenomenal this year, and certainly goes a long way in explaining why our pitchers' LOB% is so good. We are currently 3rd RZR with an .852; surprisingly (to me at least) 2nd in infield RZR with an .815. If the defense holds up it's in the of the bargain, and the LD% and HR/FB rate of our pitchers levels off, the result should be some pretty well pitched games.

Taking stock of our first 81 games has lead to these insights:

1.) Our offense will struggle to consistently put runs on the board because they're just not getting on base frequently enough, but with a big-bat in Carlos Lee due for a resurgence, we should do better than we have in June. Just don't expect a repeat of May by any stretch.

2.) Though on pace to set all kinds of records with our HR's allowed, our pitching staff has been one of the best at stranding their base runners. With the possibility that LD's will decrease ever so slightly and the expectation that HR/FB should diminish a significant amount, we should see a lot fewer runs posted by our oppents. Especially, given that...

3.) We have a great defense, especially in the in-field and CF and RF too, backing our hurlers.

So, "HALF-WAY," shouldn't inspire fear in us going further in terms of our ability to win some more ball games. However, it also shouldn't necessarily inspire determination or an excess of optimism going foward. We've dug ourselves a large hole to climb out of in the NL Central and the Wild Card race. While this franchise has over come some long odds, we don't seem to be made of the caliber of stuff that overcame them in 2005. That we should do better moving forward does inspire fear in me, because it will probably convince Drayton McLane to stay the course with this team -- or worse, try to acquire some missing piece. We look like a team that might be able to put up a good fight to reach .500, but as fans we have to ask ourselves, is that what we want? Is obtaining a respectable, but hardly noteworthy, amount of wins worth trying to build for a successful, stable future? I say, not at all.

***Note: Evan contributed a significant amount to this, won't be credited in the by-line, but deserves equal share of either the props or criticism (well maybe just the criticism) too.***

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The Astros, They're So Hot Right Now

Incase my lame movie reference failed, it's Mugatu from Zoolander. Ok, Pop-culture references will be shelved now. For we college students, it's officially summer and the Astros have continued sizzle--big time. Lance is setting all sorts of records for his streak and thus far has exhibited no signs of cooling off, though a nagging leg injury could spell cooler temperatures for Lance. While Lance has been the main attraction with his bat, we should not overlook the fact that Lance has been, to date, the best defensive first baseman in all of MLB, with an outstanding RZR of .926. Yes, not only has Lance hit better than everyone in MLB, he's also played better defense than anyone at his position, including the much lauded Albert Pujols (the guy who won the gold glove last year). Right now, it appears that the NL MVP award is a two man race between Berkman and Utley, however, it is only mid-May, but an exciting prospect none-the-less.

However, while we could analyze Lance's bat and glove all day, the thing I want to focus on today, is the Astros as a team. We've done a few 10-Game Recaps, trying to analyze the changes in key stats that allow us to predict where the Astros fortunes might end up. These, however, have been pretty skin deep, with a focus on Offense and pitching only. So today, I'm going to attempt to break down the Astros as a Team, in lieu of doing another 10 Game Recap tomorrow, as they seem to have a very tepid response so far. I'm using stats available from the Hard Ball Times, an excellent site that provides a treasure trove of statistics, research, and analysis for free.

Courtesy of the Hardball Times' Team Reports, a look at the Astros record in terms of XW-L reveals that Astros are not a product of luck and their 22-17 record is in line with their runs scored/allowed. This good news, but looking at the Cubs and Cardinals record is a mixed bag of news. The Good News: The Cardinals are 1 game ahead of their XW-L, and in general seem to be due to come back to earth, and probably already are. That fact puts the Astros in 2nd place in the NL Central. However, the Bad News: the Cubs are 2 games below their XW-L, and should instead be at 25-13, making us 3.5 games behind the NL Central leader is hypothetical terms.

Breaking down the offense, we can see that the Astros are improving their OBP, but are still below league average with .321 mark, but by being 5th in the NL in slugging (.422) they've managed to post a league average OPS of .743, and keep the offense moving, simply by hitting the tar out of the baseball. While OBP is down, it is interesting to note that the Astros are 7th in the NL (and exactly league average) at P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) 3.82 P/PA. That's a pretty good rate and portends to either a higher BB% or is just a indication that they seem to have be able work the count, waiting for the right pitch. Either way, it assuages fears that our offense will collapse. Perhaps cautionary, the 'Stros have hit .292 with RISP and only .265 overall. Maybe they're exhibiting clutchness or it could be harbinger of a deflating offense unless the hits keep coming when we have men on.

The one thing that we have overlooked this year when talking about pitching, is how much this team is getting killed by the long ball. We have well above average K/9 (7.0), better than average BB/9 (3.3), and are league average in GB% (44%) and LD% (19%), we've even stranded more runners than any other pitching staff in the league with a LOB% of 77%, but when it comes to HR/8 we're tops with 1.3 HR/9. Correlated to that, we also lead the league in .SLG allowed with .453, well above the league average of .408. I'm at a loss to explain the HR's, because we have excellent rate stats that indicate strong control. I guess when we're making mistakes, we're just getting punished for them big time. I'd imagine that this has to be a fluke of some sort, and via mechanics being corrected or luck evening out, will drop. As such, given our strong rate stats, the staff appears to be much better than expected so far and due for some improvement in the ERA department.

Finally, and what I feel is the most important part of this team that has been overlooked, is their defense. The team owns a .847 RZR, which is second in the NL, second only to the Cardinals. It's been outstanding so far, especially given all the pre-season doubts about Tejada's glove, Bourn's maturity in the field, and Carlos' waist-line. Speaking of Lee and Bourn, consider this the fact that Astros own an above average Out-Field RZR in the NL with a .910, while having the second worst LFer (Lee, RZR of .804). The infield is tied for second in the NL with an RZR of .810, second again to the Cardinals. Over the off-season, we observed a few Astros-centric blogs, and one in particular, that chastised this teams defense over and over again. Their main fears were that Lance was a bad 1B, Tejada would look like Carlos Lee at SS, and that the hot corner would be devoid of anything you could begin to call adequate defense. Tejada has posted a .873 RZR (good for 3rd in the NL behind the injured Tulowitzki and the Brave’s Yunel Escobar), Lance, as we already mentioned is the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, and the hot corner has been average (Wigginton .711) to above average (Blum .756).

So here’s the quick and dirty of it: This team has been getting the hits that count, when they count, which so long as their plate discipline remains, should hold true. Our pitching has been very good with the exception of the long ball, which one has to assume that will even out of the season--leaving just solid pitching. Our gloves have been great; they’ve been exceptional in some areas, average in others, and just pitiful for Carlos Lee. This looks like a team that is capable of staying the course, they’re confident, capable of winning games in any way (just look at the Dodgers series) and if anything, have room for some improvement still. In sum, we look like a contender, which in the end is all we could hope for and more than a lot of us expected.

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3rd 10 Game Recap (Though none are 10 Game Samples...)

After a weekend that saw our first three game series sweep of the season, let’s take a look at the recent returns.

Hitting
Stats	PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
Last 10 Games	347	47	14	46	20	56	.241	.285	.725	.198	2.8
The Previous 12 Games	426	66	13	61	41	62	.286	.357	.809	.167	1.51
1st 10 Games	339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65
2008	1,112	149	38	141	83	174	.255	.313	.752	.184	2.09

Offensively, the Astros have been a mixed bag. On one hand, the team has scored more than five runs in five straight games. It's terrible BABIP numbers have arrived at the mean, as we’ve been scoring more runs in spite of our low team batting average and on base percentage. What could be a harbinger of darker days to come is the incredibly low team OBP. Given that our team OBP in the previous twelve games was .357, a dip all the way to .285 is startling. For comparison’s sake, the San Diego Padres have the worst team OBP of any NL team, but our guys have outscored the Friars by 34 runs this season, or a little over a run per game played thus far. How is this possible? A look at our team’s ISO (isolated slugging percentage) tells us that although the Astros aren’t getting on base with any regularity, they are getting tremendous bang for their buck. It seems as if the team may settle around where their season totals current stand, as far as the type of offensive production that we will see. In other words: don’t hold your breath as far as hoping this team will challenge the Cubs for OBP supremacy.They're simply aren't built that way. But, that may ok as long as the folks in the Crawford Boxes keep getting souvenirs that they don’t throw back. Look for JR Towles and Carlos Lee to start racking up hits at a greater rate, and for Lance to slide a little, based on his average BABIP, but fairly low line drive percentage (LD%).

Starting Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	GB%	E(W)	E(L)
Last 11 Games	49.3	3	2	37	29	6.75	1.28	5.47	.327	46%	2.2	3.2
Previous 11 Games	58.7	4	3	45	22	6.90	2.05	4.76	.290	44%	3.9	3.8
1st 10 Games	58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	4.03	.303	44%	1.9	3.7
2008	166	7	9	118	69	6.40	1.71	4.72	.312	45%	9.2	9.7

Relief Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	BB/9	H/9
Last 11 Games	45.3	3	2	4	41	13	8.15	3.15	2.78	.213	2.58	6.15
Previous 11 Games	37.7	2	2	2	35	12	8.36	2.91	4.78	.293	2.87	9.8
1st 10 Games	27	3	3	1	19	12	6.33	2.03	5.67	.379	4	12.33
2008	110.0	8	7	7	95	37	7.72	2.56	4.17	.289	3.02	8.92

The pitching staff has also seen a bit of a regression over the past 10 games. More walks and a much higher ERA jump off the stat sheet for the starters. Chris Sampson has struggled in his past two starts in Arizona and yesterday against the Brewers, after dominating the Reds in the Queen City. The team leads the league in home runs against, couple that with a ground ball ratio below 50%, and this team is staring at a potential problem in the first 30 games of the season. However, the team’s K/BB and K/9 ratios have been adequate, which is due in large part to a bullpen that has been led by closer Jose Valverde, who has converted his last four saves , while not giving up a run in that same stretch. Again though, a very low BABIP indicates some regression is imminent, hopefully the K rates maintain near their current levels, so the pen’s overall effectiveness will not diminish.

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2nd 10 Game Recap: Finding Solid Ground

Since we waited an extra day, you guys get a bonus 11 Game Recap...that also means we get to do less work the next time around (9 games).

In this eleven game span, we’ve been 6-5, a marked improvement from the last time we reported in this fashion. Our XW-L is 10-11 on the season, while we really stand at 9-12. Things seem to have evened out in the luck department -- just slightly the opposite of what we’d hoped for, but hey, we should still be a win better than we are. AND if you look at the NL Central’s XW-L record, we’re only trailing the Cubs by 3.5 games (Cubs XW-L 13-7). So, 21 games in, we’re still in the thick of it -- in theory.

Aside from XW-L records, what can the numbers tell us about our team and how they’ve been playing 21 games into the season.

We’ll shake things up this time and lead-off with:

Starting Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	GB%	E(W)	E(L)
Last 11 Games	58.7	4	3	45	22	6.90	2.05	4.76	.290	44%	3.9	3.8
1st 10 Games	58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	4.03	.303	44%	1.9	3.7
2008	116.7	4	7	81	40	6.25	2.03>	4.40	.305	44%	7	7

In the last 11 games, we’ve seen our starters BABIP fall right in line with the league average, which is good, however, it is important to note that in that time frame, Backe’s BABIP in this was .327, which is easily explained by/explains his poor outing in Philly. It is frustrating to have an overall record of 4-7 for your starters, when they’ve pitched well enough to be 7-7, but we’ll leave much of that analysis for the bull pen. Our peripherals have been remarkably consistent, which is an early indicator that what we’re seeing so far, is probably what we’re going to get, with the exception. Of course, with the exception of Roy who should continue averaging out his poor start with performances more in line with his talent, as we mentioned earlier.

Relief Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	BB/9	H/9
Last 11 Games	37.7	2	2	2	35	12	8.36	2.91	4.78	.293	2.87	9.8
1st 10 Games	27	3	3	1	19	12	6.33	2.03	5.67	.379	4	12.33
2008	64.7	5	5	3	54	24	7.52	2.25	5.15	.328	3.34	10.86

The W, L, and Saves columns are pretty straight forward, if you’ve been watching the games. The two columns that should give every Astros fan hope is the BABIP, K/9, and K/BB. Our peripherals have improved dramatically in the last 11 games compared to the first and the BABIP has dropped to a very sustainable level. While a 4.76 ERA is certainly not what everyone was hoping from this bull pen, it is necessary to note that if you take away Brocail’s shelling last night, the ERA probably isn’t all that bad. What I am trying to say is, things seem to be stabilizing and at this stable state, the Astros’ bull pen looks solid.

Hitting
Stats	PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
Last 12 Games	426	66	13	61	41	62	.286	.357	.809	.167	1.51
1st 10 Games	339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65
2008	765	102	24	95	63	118	.261	.325	.764	.177	1.87

For those who've been keeping up, sorry that it took an extra day to get the hitting data in. Due to our ineptitude, we're giving you a bonus game in the hitting because the method we're using to get the stats can't spit out specific game sets...our bad. But in the end, it's probably good because it gives us a chance to see what the Astros have been doing as they began to heat up. The stat that immediately pops out is the .OBP which is a tremendous .357 -- for a team OBP that's outstanding. The leading indicator, if you're going to simply choose a single stat, for run production is OBP, because you can't score anyone if they're not on base -- unless Adam Dunn is all nine of your hitters and just crushing solo shots. While that team OBP seems high, in reality it shouldn't fall too much. Last time, we reported that our projected team OBP is .344, meaning we shouldn't see too much of a drop off in run production. While it correlates to OBP, our vastly decreased K:BB ratio for our hitters is also a number that portends to more good things, because it indicates that our hitters are being very patient and selective -- hopefully that holds. There is reason to believe that it will as the number of PA our team has is inching close to most of these stats becoming statistically significant. Run production during this period has averaged 5.5 runs a game, which, again, utilizing an RC/27 formula, we predicted the line-up should produce about 5.1 runs/per game. So all in all, it appears that our hitters are beginning to settle in and perform at their true talent levels. Thus, while it is improbable to believe that the team will keep notching 8+ runs a game, we should see a steady stream of 5-6 run games as we move forward, which as the pitchers find their grove should put us in the position to stay in contention in the NL Central.

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10 Game Recap: Searching for Silver Linings

As promised, here is our 10 game wrap. For this, our inaugural edition, we decided to look at some raw statistics to see what they tell us about our dismal 3-7 start.

Hitting
PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65

Not a lot of surprises here, we just aren’t hitting and more importantly, we’re not getting on base. A positive note, though, is that when we are hitting, we’re hitting for a pretty decent power (note: Isolated Slugging of .190). Even this positive sign is due in large part to a four home run performance on Monday, capped off by this welcoming present from Mr. Tejada.

Our hitting woes are a surprise to say the least. This team has been heralded all off-season long as one of the best line-ups in the NL. Lance’s career .412 OBP always gives reason to be optimistic, but Carlos Lee (.341) and Miguel Tejada (.343) do not have the track record of getting on base. Balancing the good with the bad, we wanted to find a reasonable prognostication about our team’s ability to score runs. In this pursuit, we decided to use a metric called RC/27. It’s an approximation of the number of runs, per 27 outs (the length of a ball game) a player or team is creates. In 10 games our hitters (the hitting stats above exclude pitchers, for the purpose of solely analyzing what the men who are paid to hit the ball are doing for us) have manged 36 runs, which is an average of 3.6 runs/game (tough math, I know). I am using PECOTA’s projections to come up with our projected RC/27 score. Though there are many formulas for RC/27, most just trying to be more and more precise, I used the quick and dirty formula of:

RC= 25xOBPxSLG / (1-AVG)

The projected values for our lineup (including bench players, but Kaz Matsui is excluded because he has not played yet):

OBP: .344 SLG: .437 AVG: .274

This yielded a RC/27 of 5.17. So clearly, we have been vastly under performing at the plate, but we clearly are bound for a regression to the mean -- i.e. something’s got to give. Regardless of notions associated with clutch hitting, luck is a big part of hitting. Hit ‘em where they ain’t may be an old baseball axiom, but it’s very much true. Line drives are often caught, while bloop singles go for RBI’s just as frequently it seems. This offense has a track record of success. Regardless of regression due to age, or questionable lineups, it should (based on our projections) start to hit better, and score more runs as a result.

Starting Pitching
IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K:BB	BABIP	ERA	E(W)	E(L)
58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	.303	4.03	1.9	3.7

For all the talk about how bad the starting rotation was going to be this year, through 10 games, it has been the one bright spot on the club. Even with Roy Oswalt’s hip being a purple bruise and Chris Sampson struggling through the flu yesterday, we’ve put up solid numbers. Brandon Backe went toe to toe with Chris Young and Carlos Zambrano, and kept us in the game both times. Wandy Rodriguez bounced back form a rocky outing in San Diego, and has pitched over nine innings of scoreless ball in a row.

The vacancy in the win column is a testament to our bullpen’s ineptitude. The E(W,L) values are slightly skewed, namely because of both Roy and Chris’s rotten starts. E(W,L) cannot be read as though you were looking at a W-L column, quickly said, it is the expected win share a pitcher earned for getting through X number of innings having allowed X number of runs, determined by the number of wins and losses pitchers through out history have earned with the same IP and RA. The good thing to note is that our BABIP is close to the mean, meaning that should our rate stats stay as strong as they are, then this just might be the way things will go.

Relief Pitching
IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	ERA	BABIP	K/9	K/BB	H/9	BB/9
27	3	3	1	19	12	5.67	.379	6.33	2.03	12.33	4

Like we said last night, this team has been built around hitting and strong bullpen, and just like hitting, the bull pen has STRUGGLED. Just like hitting though, it appears that bullpen is also do for a regression to the mean given their absurdly high BABIP of .379 reflected in a astronomical H/9 of 12.33. While the other rates stats haven't been phenomenal, expect them to improve slightly, but not much. Just expect the bullpen’s BABIP’s regression to the mean to make all the difference in the world.

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