Today, I, a beleaguered Astros fan, type with my head bowed, and with a heart full of regret. Yesterday I wrote some very unkind words about the General Manager of the Houston Astros, Edward Wade. As a passionate fan, I wanted the very best for my favorite baseball club, and when I felt the team was headed in the wrong direction, I spoke out. Rashly. Too rashly. Coming into this week I thought, (although some would say you need a brain to think, something that is still in doubt)that given our present place in the standings, perhaps it would be prudent to move a number of our veteran players for a few minor leaguers. Ya know, building blocks, stepping stones to a new generation of Astros baseball. How wrong I was. Red Sox send in a scout to take a look at some of our relievers, possibly even Miguel Tejada?? Rebuffed! And rightfully so- tell them to go jump in the Charles River. We don't need prospects from the team that has built two World Series Champions on the strength of their minor league system. Youkilis. Papelbon. Ellsbury. Lester. Lowrie. Moss. Masterson. Pedroia. Buchholz. Yea, well..I'll see that, and raise you: Pence. Towl..no, wait Hunter Pence. Ummm...Etc. Take a deep breath. Going through the names of players produced by our minor league teams can be both exhausting and exhilerating. Ready to go on? Ok. Sure, we didn't get any young talent, and sure, this club ages by the day- but so do younger teams like the Red Sox. It's true. Everyone ages at the same rate. Don't believe me- here, stuff this prediction in your hookah and then smoke it: At 9:53 AM on Saturday, August 2, 2008 we will all be exactly one day older. I shit you not. Same goes for Major Leaguers. I won't even limit it to the Red Sox and Astros: Ryan Braun, Ian Kinsler, Tim Lincecum- all will be one day older tomorrow. So will Doug Brocail. Ditto Darin Erstad. See where I'm going with this?? The Astros' complete disregard for young players is well founded.
At this point, Ed Wade has turned the baseball universe on its head and spun it like a top. You'd think that would be enough for one man to accomplish in a week's time. But not ol' Eddie. Nosiree. He's scheming. Planning.
What is he planning, you may ask? Maybe somebody should send Ed a text telling him that this isn't like the NBA draft lottery- we don't have a shot at getting the first pick in the draft unless we have the worst record. And unless these personnel moves were made in order for us to los....oh, Ed, you're good, you're good. I seemed to have discovered another plan of Ed's: for us to leapfrog (backwards leapfrog to be exact) the Washington Nationals/Seattle Mariners for the worst record in baseball. Be that as it may, let's take a look at his deadline moves. Therein lies his true plan. A pattern quickly comes into focus:
Alberto Arias claimed off waivers from Colorado
LaTroy Hawkins obtained in exchange for minor league second baseman Matt Cusick
What did Ed do last offseason? Revamped our bullpen. Added a number of guys who can fill multiple roles in our relief corps. Do you see what's devloping here??
Peer into the looking glass, people
It's been fairly obvious to some that Ed's been trying to be cutting edge this entire time. His recent trades prove that. He understands that it is both more cost effective and talent effective to have four starters and have his relief pitchers start the fifth game in the rotation. Call us prophetic, call us soothsayers, call us visionaries. Now Ed has wisened up. I was dumb for not seeing the writing on the wall, when I lambasted him. I'm sorry, Mr. Wade. Truly. Sorry.
Friday, August 1, 2008
Error of my ways
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Fear and Loathing in Houston
Evan here: Well the clock is ticking on Ed Wade making a trade to improve the Astros. With every movement of the minute hand, the fate of the Houston Astros for seasons to come becomes more and more apparent. There will be no moves to better this team down the line. There are 23 minutes left. Don't hold your breath. Put down the rabbit's foot. After winning 4 out of 6 games against divisional opponents, our chips are on the table- and we're goin' all in. Don't mistake this bravado for baseball intelligence. No, no- the Houston Astros of 2008 are not "stupid like a fox". They're most likely just, well, stupid. I hate to say it, because you won't find a bigger Astros fan than me. Or any of us, for that matter. We've all thought the same thing today- why can't Drayton see this team for what it is?? (20 minutes)How can he miss the forest for the trees? My answer is this: sometimes, those closest to the situation can't see the problem around them, no matter how evident. If you go to a friend's house, and all their family does is fight- you can leave thinking, "well, if Person A did this and if Person B did that and if Person C didn't do that the family could be a lot more cohesive." (19 minutes) We can scream until our lungs burst with frustration, but this is just how the current team braintrust is going to operate. To some extent I give them credit- they all want to win. Their avenues for arriving at the ultimate destination need to be seriously reconsidered, but their hearts are in the right place. Their minds however, need to be reconfigured. (17 minutes)
Let me preface this by saying that I defended Ed Wade's off-season moves until I was blue in the face this off-season. My logic was that should we try and fail this year, at least we had acquired/possessed a ton of tradeable pieces to re-stock and re-build at the trade deadline (which is fast approaching). Evan's and I's conviction in the fact that something like this would happen is what led us to picking up the blog again for this season. What follows is four three months worth of frustration and attempting to find a silver-lining in the cluster-f@*k of a season this has been only to continually just be shat on by our management.
The Astros acquired LaTroy Hawkins last night. It's a low risk move if you don't analyze it because Hawkins will be almost free to the Astros (we can pretend that this is not because the Yankees are just that pleased to get rid of him). However, to acquire Hawkins, we gave up Matthew Cusick who in 573 career AB at A ball has this triple slash: .293/.383/.455. Those numbers look good for a 10th rounder. Granted it's A ball, but at this point possessing someone who has upside in our farm system is like striking oil. LaTroy Hawkins was so bad as a Yankees reliever they released him. Outside of Mariano and Joba, try to name a Yankees reliever who isn't awful...that's HOW bad LaTroy Hawkins was this year so far. His control is terrible 5.1 K/9 to 3.8 BB/9, which you would expect from a 35 year old relief pitcher who's just never been that good.
Ok, enough of my baseball statistics nerdery. What does Ed Wade have to say about this deal?
On Hawkins' terrible year so far:
His overall numbers don't look all that great right now, but our reports on him over the last month or so, he's gone back and thrown more of his four-seam fastball and his velocity has been good.
Alright Ed. What you're saying is you know he's bad, but now that he's throwing the ball harder, the fact that he can't locate his pitches to not walk people will be ameliorated. Phew.
On giving up a projectible young prospect:
We like Matt. He's swinging the bat very well at Lexington, and he's had a good season down there. I had a chance to see him play a handful of games early in the season. We consider him a prospect, and obviously, the Yankees consider him a prospect also. But if you have a chance to add an experienced guy like Hawkins, and the price of doing business is a lower level bat, then it makes sense to go ahead and do something.
So we have this kid in our farm system who is doing some really outstanding things, but you had a chance to take a guy who is way past his prime (if there was one) in your bull pen. Which, by the way, is already full of decent but not great guys. Good call. It's not like this team isn't chock full of veterans who are declining rapidly in some aspect of the game or other. What the franchise has too much of is is talented young prospects to replace these guys -- hopefully sooner rather than later.
Well then Ed, how do you feel what you've done to help a team who have a negative 56 run differential while being 9.5 games back in the Wild Card race behind a scant six teams (I could have also just written: Have no hope of doing anything meaningful this year)?
We sort of went into this period of time looking to bolster our starting rotation, and get some more depth in the back end of the bullpen, and we think with Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins, we've done those things.
You've added more depth that is for sure. You've also added a pitcher who's numbers are park inflated, and a reliever who is losing his ability to pitch effectively. In the process you've given up a pitcher who many thought would be the next Dan Wheeler and a A ball guy who was playing very, very well. This would possibly be excusable if the following things weren't true:
1. Our Starting Rotation would actually be improved by Randy Wolf.
2. Our Bull Pen would actually be improved by LaTroy Hawkins.
3. 1 and 2 would only be legitimate if the following weren't true:
A. This team weren't in the bottom of the league for .OBP and had prospects for increasing its run scored.
B. This team weren't buried in the basement of the NL Central by 13.5 games and the Wild Card by 9.5 games and six other teams.
4. If 3(A) and 4(B) are true, the logical plan would be to unload the movable and valuable talent on this team for as many talent prospects as possible, in an effort to make this Matt Cusick kid look like a schmuck in our farm system.
At this point, I feel inclined almost to root against the Astros, so that Ed Wade might get splashed with a painful and shocking dose of reality. So that we might have a front office rebuilding process and then further down the line a team rebuilding process -- once the front office is qualified (read: not lobotomized) to take on such an endeavor.
I just checked MLBTradeRumors to see if Ed Wade has just been playing the fool and suddenly sent an email to every GM listing his terms for Wandy, Miggy, Wiggy, the Bench Crew, Valverde, Brocail, and Geary in what would be forever considered one the saaviest moves ever to drive up demand elasticity for our guys...there was no such news. Damnit.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
John Kerry Ain't Got Nothin' on Richard Justice - Why Sports Writers Matter
As I sat bleary eyed at my kitchen table, having hit the snooze button three times this morning, I began my typical morning trudge through the Chronicle’s Sports section. Usually, in such a state, I just mutter obscenity laden curses to Richard Justice and Steve Campbell. This isn’t because I’m angry at the world entirely at 6:30 AM, in the end, it’s because I know they have journalistic responsibility to educate the fans of Houston’s sport franchises and when it comes to the Astros, they’re pretty awful at their jobs. Justice and Campbell both have spent the last month-ish trying to explain why the Astros don’t need a fire sale in order to be a better team. That they’re just a FA pitcher next season away from the play-offs. That we can’t underestimate this team because one time, in 2005, they did something spectacular. Never mind that only a handful of those men are left in the Astros dugout, this team might just still have something up its sleeve. All we need to do, Justice and Campbell have urged, is just trust in Drayton.
Then, Ed Wade makes a move that signals to the entire baseball world that he and Drayton McLane are prepared to run this ship into the ground before they even think about trying that rebuilding thing and suddenly Richard Justice, this morning, thinks this organization is doomed. That’s quite the turn around don’t you think? Richard Justice went from a don’t give up on this team, it’s a free agent pitcher away from glory, company line guy to this guy overnight:
"Maybe McLane lacks patience. Maybe he still thinks there’s a quick fix out there.
That might be why he’s willing to spend $100 million on Carlos Lee and veto $1.2 million in spending on three draft picks.
If he’s really smart, he’ll realize he could save money by splurging on draft picks and cutting corners on Wolf, Shawn Chacon, etc.
When he finally understands this, when he studies how the Twins and Marlins and A’s have succeeded on dramatically smaller budgets, he’ll understand that less might actually be more."
Where did that come from Richard? Either you finally grew a pair or you truly are just the most easily swayed flip-flopper around. I hope it’s the former, because that means the pair will stick around and perhaps do something to influence the taste and preferences of Astros fans. If we had legion of beat writers condemning the fool-hearted arrogance of our owner and the ineptitude he inspires in our management, then perhaps fans would be not just be accepting, but welcoming of a rebuild. They might want to tune into Hooks and Express games that show up on FSN about once a week. If Richard Justice had parted with the company line a month ago and printed those statements, Astros fans as a collective body, might have been screaming for anything not buckled down to be moved or at least the pieces that could fetch something of worth.
Instead of rebuilding the farm system, like the smart organizations (Justice’s own words), a month ago this was Richard’s proposal for how to fix this team:
“This course has its price. Signing premier free agents [pitchers] will cost the Astros the draft choices they need.
But there's no perfect solution for a franchise that's broken in so many areas.
It's just one way out. Maybe the best way” (emphasis added).
I’ve read a few articles recently about the biggest villains in baseball, the owners, and that’s probably well and true in most cases. It's hard for anyone to stand up against monopolists with government protection. However, I have a bone to pick with our beat writers. It’s their responsibility to inform the fans of what’s going on in an organization, to help drive the taste and preferences of the general public. If you believe any part of how a market economy works, then you probably understand that taste and preferences are the most important part of demand and to that end, the beat writers may just be the most important aspect of shaping our demand for sports franchises. With this great responsibility, they have failed to do anything other then repackage hokey and tired company lines about this and that in order to get everyone to believe that this franchise isn’t busted. Instead of inciting a riot, they’ve tried to continue to pull the wool over our eyes. Now that the cat is out of the bag, they’re changing their tune -- it’s too little, too late.
There is a lot of blame to go around in baseball when things aren’t going right. I think Drayton and his front office deserve and hearty portion of it. Yet, as demonized as we can make those men and Union Station, we shouldn’t forget that there were a select group of men who had the freedom to say anything they wanted and have it read by millions of readers each day who stood by the dopes at Texas and Crawford instead of living up to their responsibility.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Trades, Pads and Compensatory Picks
Tumbleweeds rolling, crickets chirping, Ed Wade bringing in an average at best starting pitcher. As Astros fans, we seem to be in a lose-lose situation. If management does do something, odds are it will be poorly conceived and cost the team money. If management does nothing in the next week, the team will have bypassed another good opportunity to strengthen our minor league system.
When this team was constructed, there were holes in the lineup and the starting rotation. If the Astros can’t get through the end of July without scrounging for bullpen help, the efforts Wade went through to create a new team this past off-season was all for naught. Trading away much of your bullpen from last year for an entirely new crop may have been the right move. Chad Qualls in essence yielded Jose Valverde, who despite Monday's debacle, has pitched well as the closer. When Dan Wheeler was sent to Tampa Bay, Ty Wigginton came in return and has played more than adequately, to the tune of an OPS+ of 113. He has helped to solidify a position that would have seen a Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum platoon day in and day out; negating two more chips to trade with. Michael Bourn has struggled, yes, but trading Brad Lidge to Philadelphia was the right move because despite having the break on his slider return to pre-2006 levels, the fact remains that every piece of that deal that came to Houston has been used. Geoff Geary has been a more than serviceable arm for the bullpen, and Mike Costanzo was sent to Baltimore in the Miguel Tejada trade. Michael Bourn is who he is: a speedster who has trouble getting on base. I know that is a strong indictment against a table setter, but until Bourn has 600 AB’s under his major league belt, I won’t completely dismiss his ability to be a competent player on this level.
While he has done just about everything he possibly could with the roster, farm system and owner he was given, I’d like to know what kind of GM Wade really is. He came to Houston as the man who drafted Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels. But, what sort of stimuli does he respond to when the deadline approaches? This is a question that we baseball outsiders will probably never able to answer, as we aren’t privy to the information necessary to arrive at any conclusions. No question though, this will be the time that Ed Wade can define his first year as the Astros GM. As it stands right now, I doubt that he will be able to land another relief pitcher. Teams that are in contention have both greater needs and greater resources (i.e.- farm systems) by which to acquire players.
Stephen and I are were both under the assumption that Wade was looking to the future, despite the comments he’d given to the media in the past few weeks. Then yesterday happened. The only benefit I can see from this trade is that maybe Randy Wolf can put together a solid second half and qualify himself as a Level “B” free agent, thus giving the Astros another draft pick next year. If not, millions of dollars will have been in essence wasted. Jack Cassel could very well provide the same amount of success in the second half as Randy Wolf. Cassell has a very high HR/FB ratio, which should come down some in the second half if he pitches enough innings for the regression to the mean to occur. This is based of his 2007 season, in which he pitching sparingly, and like Wolf, luckily for the Padres. Wolf, as Stephen mentioned yesterday, has been unlukcy with his LOB%, but very fortunate in other categories. Moving from PETCO Park, which is an extreme pitcher’s park, to Minute Maid, which is neutral as far altering the runs scored/prevented in a game, should stand to bring him back to earth. There’s still more than a week left until the non-waiver trade deadline passes by, but Ed Wade’s first move is a head scratcher for sure.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Astros become Wolf's Pack
**UPDATE** Stephen here, glad to be back. Evan and I just got off a "conference call" and have changed our tune about the trade. My initial reaction to this trade came through a series of text messages with Evan while I was on the home stretch of a 10,000 page document review (yes, it's as arduous as it sounds). Wolf's ERA had escaped me, but I knew the strike outs were there. Having arrived home, I finally got to sit down and crunch this trade around in my head.
I went to The Hardball Times' stat page and pulled up Wolf's numbers. He's been an unlucky pitcher in terms of LOB% which, and has an FIP (fielding independent) ERA of 4.29, and perhaps we could expect Wolf to improve as the season goes on.
The inquiry didn't stop there however, as Evan and I had bounced around, via text messages, what we thought of the Pet Co. park factor in Wolf's season might be on our respective commutes home. What I dug up shatters Evan's and my initial reactions to this deal. Wolf is sporting a 6.63 ERA away from Pet Co. this year. Meaning, that Wolf will most likely be demolished in the friendly confines of MMP a la his predcesor Woody Williams, who was equally bolstered by the fact that balls have to really work to get get anywhere it Pet Co. before migrating to Houston.
To depress myself further, I watched an Ed Wade interview in regards to the trade. I have officially lost all faith in this organization. Seriously, listening to him talk about how he thinks we can still pull it out, despite having when 42+ games in the last 60 to have a chance made me want to cry. How does this man have a job? How does this man not take the time to look at simple things like Home/Spilts, park factors, etc. before making a deal. The Astros have essentially made a deal that continues to leave them dead in the water as far as doing anything to make this a worthwhile ball club. Drayton's leadership, his choice in management, and his never give up attitude will leave an indelible and painful mark on this club for many, many years. We are completely F$%^ed is all I have to say.
We hereby rescind the following comments.
I hate myself for the title, but I couldn't resist. The Astros have acquired veteran right handed starter Randy Wolf for minor league pitcher Chad Reineke. My initial reaction was frustration, but then after looking at the logistics of the deal, I realized that if and when the Astros do not re-sign Wolf at the end of this season, a compensation pick is headed our way. The Astros will pay a pro-rated portion of Wolf's salary, plus a bonus of $175,000 for for every start he makes up to his 30th start. What to take from this trade? Ed Wade convinced Drayton McLane to take on the contract of a pitcher who can help this season by filling in for Roy Oswalt while he's out and then taking the spot of Jack Cassell or Runelvys Hernandez once Roy returns. For having paid just over $3 million for his services, the Astros will be given a compensatory draft pick in the 2009 draft. Reineke was not thought of as much of a prospect, although he did earn the distinction of having the best slider of any Astros farmhand in 2007. As it stands now, this deal get the Dome-Dogs seal of approval.
Here is a link to a prior post of ours detailing what goes into determining whether a free agent qualifies their old club for compensation picks, if said free agent fails to re-sign. Good stuff to know for the next week, because every the mouth of every analyst is going to be brimming with this sort of talk like he's Mt. St. Helen's.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Ed Wade Makes a Pretty Lousy Scape-Goat
The Astros suck. There’s really no debating it. There’s room for debate as to why they suck -- it could be luck, it could be terrible management, it could be declining ability, and lack of talent, but it’s not for lack of trying. I was excited when Ed Wade came to Houston; a lot of people weren’t. Evan and I had discussed Philadelphia’s center-fielder in waiting Michael Bourn several times at the trade deadline in ’07. We had heard of his tools spoken of highly from snippet’s like this:
“A couple of years ago, we might have gotten very, very excited about a player who posted a .379 translated OBP as a 21-year-old. Now we're only very excited about him. Bourn's plate discipline is outstanding, and it helps that he's a little bit undersized as 5'11", reducing the size of his strike zone. His stolen-base ability rates just about as high as it can: He not only has tremendous speed, but also instinctive technique on the basepaths, which led to perhaps the most impressive SB-CS ratio in minor league baseball. While he's not a natural center fielder, he certainly has the speed to handle the position, and should improve his routes over time.”
--Baseball Prospectus, 2005.
When the trigger was pulled by Ed Wade last fall, I caught it in an email at 10 o’clock while I was studying in the library. I raced out and immediately notified Evan, he was so overjoyed, he thought I was joking. On more than one occasion this winter, I defended the trade and I’ll still defend this trade for one reason: Michael Bourn is 25 years old and he’s just barely accumulated 300 PA at the major league level. Everyone knew Brad Lidge still had it, but he wouldn’t find it in Houston -- how do you sell that at the bargaining table to another GM though? I was just as big of fan of Luke Scott and his ability as anyone, but I believed (and still do) that in the long run, this was the right move for the team. Luke Scott is 30 and is at his peak, which finds him to be a streaky, but effective RF with average defensive capabilities. Michael Bourn is 25, has been rushed through the minor leagues, but has possessed three notable skills his entire life: working PA for walks or finding his pitch, stealing bases effectively, and defense. He hasn’t had a lot of time to adjust to major league pitching, but I fully believe his eye will catch up, he has two to five years to reach his “peak” and we’d be fools not to believe that will happen. Further, with proper management, he’d be a much more lethal steal threat, but he’s been encouraged to be reckless by an incompetent manager. In three years I think we will look back on this trade and be very pleased about having an outfield anchored by Pence and Bourn at the peak of their abilities, instead of Pence and two aged veterans on the way downside of their careers (Lee and Scott).
Flip-flopping Richard Justice had these unremarkable ten cents to throw in the debate:
The issue isn't whether Ed Wade got enough for Lidge. He didn't. There's hardly an argument to be made about that.
This evaluation will be subject to review if Michael Bourn becomes the impact player Wade believed he'd be at the time of the trade. With fewer than 500 career at-bats, Bourn might get there.
The day before, Justice had lambasted the Tejada deal, which was set in motion by the Bourn trade:
To Ed Wade's list of mistakes, add the name of Miguel Tejada. Put another $26 million on the general manager's tab.
However, his colleague Steve Campbell has the more intelligent and level-head view of Tejada’s woes and should be praised accordingly, as such characteristics are not often contained in Houston Chronicle ink. Cambell eloquently penned “Maybe Cooper decided he needed a day off from watching Miguel Tejada's heavy-legged pursuit of ground balls and sluggish swings of the bat.” Miguel is 34, and as Campbell points out, he can’t be the iron-man he was in his youth and still be remotely effective. Sometimes players have to swallow their pride and admit they’re human and in that light, Tejada needs to look to his former predecessor (some dude name Ripken), for a cue. Cooper on the other hand, has no excuse. I’m sick of Cecil Cooper getting off on “learning-curve” excuse. The man has been a coach or a manager for many, many years prior to his gig as a big-league manager -- there should be no learning curve for just about all the things he keeps screwing up.
Some of Ed Wade’s moves had the mark of a desperate man, but he was exactly that. I fully believe that the Bourn deal will play out as his best. Tejada was traded away for two hurt pitchers, an ineffective relief pitcher, and Luke Scott. If Tejada were to be used effectively, he would currently, along with Valverde, represent one of our two most expendable and prized trade chips heading into the trade deadline. The Dodgers need a SS with a bat desperately and the Red Sox desire both a SS and relief pitcher just as much, if not more. Ed Wade has options to shore up the Astros future if Drayton allows him to trade Valverde and if Tejada can put together a solid two weeks before the deadline, Drayton should allow him to be traded away too. Bourn, Pence, and Towles could be the foundation of the next generation of Astros, and they could have an excellent supporting cast if Ed Wade can strike while the iron’s hot. If he can’t than Drayton will continue to shoulder the blame for the organization tanking. It’s not Ed Wades fault the Astros are awful this year. Drayton gave him a no win situation and Cecil Cooper has done literally everything in his power to stymie the effectiveness of our pitching staff and our offense. Right now Astros fans might want Ed Wade’s head, but they should probably direct their rage towards Coop and Drayton before they go after Ed.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Show Someone the Money (Astros Draft Preview)
We’re about to start a series against the best team in all of MLB right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite only having been in existence for a decade, the Arizona Diamondbacks should serve as a lesson to this team, which will soon be undergoing a rebuilding process that will spell success or dismal failure for this team for many years to come. After their meteoric rise to World Champions in 2001 and a second division title the following year (2002), the Diamondbacks declined to a awful 51-111 in 2004 to be THE worst team in MLB. The cause is one that should be all to familiar to Houston Astros fans at this point: being unable to get out from under free agent contracts that hamstrung the teams financial capabilities. However, after trading away most of their unwieldy contracts and maintaing one of the most fertile farm systems around, the Diamondbacks are poised for success for the next few years.
This June, the newly remolded front office will conduct its first amateur draft and it has a lucrative #10 pick, followed by the #52 pick (click to see the full draft board). The draft marks an important step in trying to rebuild our utterly barren farm system and it’s our highest draft pick since Chris Burke in 2001. There is already a lot of speculation going on about the draft (though thank God it’s not the asinine degree to which ESPN hypes the NFL draft...). Jim Callis of Baseball America recently answered a mailbag question about how the Astros should utilize their first two picks and I liked what he had to say (if you actually click the link, you’re going to have to scroll down to the bottom). Essentially he said take the highest available talent with the 10th pick and then try to find a value college-pitcher with the 52nd. I like this for two reasons: By taking the top talent, we’d add some value to our farm system, which could be used to produce home-grown talent or as a trade chip later down the line. Secondly, by taking a undervalued college pitcher in the second round, we’d be getting an arm for our team that is far more proven and seasoned than a high school pitcher -- also much less cost then the high school pitcher. Meaning we’d hopefully get a talented arm up to the majors in as little as 2 1/2 to 3 years (if he can survive the injury nexus that is). Callis feels that Drayton will not break with the MLB’s slotting guidelines and as such will not pay big money to sign talent that falls due to its asking price. I cannot think of a worse mistake we could make in the draft than to let the best available talent go because of some gentlemen’s agreement and a few hundred-thousand dollars. Hopefully Ed Wade, et al., will be able to persuade Drayton to pony up some cash and step on some feet, or else we could be in for a long five-six years.
As you see the likes of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young take the field over the next few days, pray that our farm system can produce such talent in the next three to four years. June 5th, 2008 will be a monumental date in the Astros’ franchise history, it can either be for good reasons or utterly depressing reasons; let hope the next three days might be a preview of our future.
