Earlier this week, I added to my list of things that Cecil Cooper has screwed up the fact that he just keeps playing Miguel Tejada all the time. It was an off the cuff reaction to what I was observing and reading. It might hold a grain of truth, but having looked into it further, I think that I might owe Cecil Cooper a semi-meaningful apology.
The impetus for this reflection came from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin, their fantasy expert, in an article in which he dissected anamolies in the SS market. Tejada has posted an ridiculous 25.3% LD rate through this point in the season. Given that LD% he should be sporting a .373 BABIP, which would put him back on the plain of his hot April start. The reason he hasn’t, is he is also meekly hitting 28.8% of his ball in play on the ground to his pull side, where, Normandin reports, he sports a .190 BA. My thoughts upon reading that, and Normandin even suggest to this to the reader too, was that he’s hitting so poorly due to fatigue. Which may still be true.
After mulling this over and trying to decide if my gut had been right earlier this week, I decided to look at his fielding stats (and no, not his Fielding Percentage) to see if he’s playing a lot worse because of his alleged fatigue. Towards the end of May, when I half-heartedly beat around the bush at saying that the Astros were due for a horrific collapse, Miguel Tejada was sporting a .873 RZR, good for 3rd in the NL among SS. This morning I decided to look at his RZR, simply as a means to confirm the Tejada fatigue theory. If it weren’t for the fact that I’d yet to finish my first cup of coffee, I would have been totally shocked, but he’s sporting a .872 RZR and leading all qualified NL SS. So where’s the fatigue?
In my humble opinion, the fatigue isn’t to blame -- though it may indeed be there. I think Tejada needs to make some sort of adjustment, however, in order to stay back on pitches so he stops taking 28.8% straight the opposing SS for a GIDP. If he can’t correct this, he needs to be slotted down in the line-up accordingly, because we can’t afford to have Berkman and Lee stranded because Miggy can’t swing the bat right now. The thing we all have to fear, is that Tejada has never sported such a high LD%, so if that deflates, we’re in serious trouble. It’s a little disappointing too, because how often do you hear of Player X and Y were taking extra BP or where in the cage trying make whatever adjustment to stay on their “A” game? I haven’t heard anything like that for Tejada and it’s frustrating that he gets to rest on the laurels of past performance instead of plow forward.
So Cecil Cooper, I’m sorry I unjustly accused you not understanding how to effectively manage Miguel Tejada’s playing time. But, I will still think you’re an idiot for keeping him in the “heart of the order.” So let’s work on that, please. While you’re at that, tell Tejada to get his jovial ass in the batting cage.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Is Miguel Tejada Fatigued? Or Are We Just Lazy?
Monday, June 30, 2008
HALF WAY!!
Back in the day, when I fancied myself a pseudo athlete (I ran track and cross country and to this day, I insist they're not sports), I remember that Matt Munoz, the best runner on the team, would scream, "HALF WAY!!" in the middle of long-runs and intervals. While I don't know for sure why exactly he did it, it usually inspired two emotions in me: fear or determination. Whether it was fear or determination depended on how I was doing at that point in the run/workout.
So, the Astros are, "HALF WAY!!" plus one, through their 2008 season. My question is, should this inspire fear or determination in us? Let's take stock of our present and then disect the past, to discuss the future.
Yesterday afternoon, we finished off our third straight series win over the AL. Two series victories over the top team in the AL East is a feat that seemed impossible as recently as two weeks ago when the team was getting swept out of Baltimore. However incredible the last week has been, the fact is that the Astros have been a disappointment for 50% of the 2008 season. A 39-43 disappointment, to be exact. What follows is a break down of some key statistics through the first 82 games to analyze how we’ve gotten to where we are. Hopefully, these will paint a picture of what we might expect for the next 80 games we play.
Tied for 5th in BA
15 (Second to Last) in OBP
9th in OPS
Next, a chart of how our hitters (pitchers have been excluded) have performed at the plate through the first 81:
The last time we took a meaningful look at the Astros numbers at the team level, was May 13th. We were tearing it up, and everyone in baseball loved us. I urged for cautious optimism, because the only aspect offensively that we were doing exceptionally well at was hitting .292 with men in scoring position. As you can see, we're now actually hitting worse, on average, with men in scoring position then we are overall. Which goes a long way to explain our absymal month of June. Our ISO has also totally fallen off, indicating that our bats just are not generating the power that they once were. A 19% line drive percentage coupled with a BABIP below .300 should inspire some optimism for an increase in offensive production for the second half. Carlos Lee in particular has a rather low BABIP, but a respectable 18.2% LDP, we're begining to see his BABIP fall in line with his LD% even, and with the revamped line-up it should help us produce more than the 2 or 3 runs a game we did for most of June. The absurdly low OBP is still troubling. As long as it stay's low, we'll have to rely on hitting well in with men in scoring position, because our opportunities to produce runs will be fleating. All in all, things should get better in the offensive department, but it won't be anything to write home about.
To the pitching:
What should jump off the stat sheet is the pitching staff's ridiculous HR/RB ratio. A majority of Astros pitchers have a tendency to induce a great deal of fly balls (probably wasn't the ideal rotation to create for MMP), but when fifteen percent of them are leaving the yard, you have to just shake your head. There are two ways to look at this development. While it's not as if their BABIP is just outlandishly high, a LD% of 20% is startling to see, especially when it's coupled with our HR/FB. Opposing hitters are getting in some good swings, which is most likely apparent to anyone who follows the Astros. More important than the HR's perhaps, are the line drives, which have a greater chance of going for extra bases than do ground balls or fly balls, thus putting runners in scoring position with relative frequency. However, and oddly enough, the Astros staff has the second best LOB% at 74%. Given that we should see the LD% drop down a tick and the FB stay in the yard more often as well, there's room for the hope that our pitching should improve a pretty good deal in the second half. This definitely surprised me.
As we noted last time, the defense has been phenomenal this year, and certainly goes a long way in explaining why our pitchers' LOB% is so good. We are currently 3rd RZR with an .852; surprisingly (to me at least) 2nd in infield RZR with an .815. If the defense holds up it's in the of the bargain, and the LD% and HR/FB rate of our pitchers levels off, the result should be some pretty well pitched games.
Taking stock of our first 81 games has lead to these insights:
1.) Our offense will struggle to consistently put runs on the board because they're just not getting on base frequently enough, but with a big-bat in Carlos Lee due for a resurgence, we should do better than we have in June. Just don't expect a repeat of May by any stretch.
2.) Though on pace to set all kinds of records with our HR's allowed, our pitching staff has been one of the best at stranding their base runners. With the possibility that LD's will decrease ever so slightly and the expectation that HR/FB should diminish a significant amount, we should see a lot fewer runs posted by our oppents. Especially, given that...
3.) We have a great defense, especially in the in-field and CF and RF too, backing our hurlers.
So, "HALF-WAY," shouldn't inspire fear in us going further in terms of our ability to win some more ball games. However, it also shouldn't necessarily inspire determination or an excess of optimism going foward. We've dug ourselves a large hole to climb out of in the NL Central and the Wild Card race. While this franchise has over come some long odds, we don't seem to be made of the caliber of stuff that overcame them in 2005. That we should do better moving forward does inspire fear in me, because it will probably convince Drayton McLane to stay the course with this team -- or worse, try to acquire some missing piece. We look like a team that might be able to put up a good fight to reach .500, but as fans we have to ask ourselves, is that what we want? Is obtaining a respectable, but hardly noteworthy, amount of wins worth trying to build for a successful, stable future? I say, not at all.
***Note: Evan contributed a significant amount to this, won't be credited in the by-line, but deserves equal share of either the props or criticism (well maybe just the criticism) too.*** Sphere: Related Content
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The Astros, They're So Hot Right Now
Incase my lame movie reference failed, it's Mugatu from Zoolander. Ok, Pop-culture references will be shelved now. For we college students, it's officially summer and the Astros have continued sizzle--big time. Lance is setting all sorts of records for his streak and thus far has exhibited no signs of cooling off, though a nagging leg injury could spell cooler temperatures for Lance. While Lance has been the main attraction with his bat, we should not overlook the fact that Lance has been, to date, the best defensive first baseman in all of MLB, with an outstanding RZR of .926. Yes, not only has Lance hit better than everyone in MLB, he's also played better defense than anyone at his position, including the much lauded Albert Pujols (the guy who won the gold glove last year). Right now, it appears that the NL MVP award is a two man race between Berkman and Utley, however, it is only mid-May, but an exciting prospect none-the-less.
However, while we could analyze Lance's bat and glove all day, the thing I want to focus on today, is the Astros as a team. We've done a few 10-Game Recaps, trying to analyze the changes in key stats that allow us to predict where the Astros fortunes might end up. These, however, have been pretty skin deep, with a focus on Offense and pitching only. So today, I'm going to attempt to break down the Astros as a Team, in lieu of doing another 10 Game Recap tomorrow, as they seem to have a very tepid response so far. I'm using stats available from the Hard Ball Times, an excellent site that provides a treasure trove of statistics, research, and analysis for free.
Courtesy of the Hardball Times' Team Reports, a look at the Astros record in terms of XW-L reveals that Astros are not a product of luck and their 22-17 record is in line with their runs scored/allowed. This good news, but looking at the Cubs and Cardinals record is a mixed bag of news. The Good News: The Cardinals are 1 game ahead of their XW-L, and in general seem to be due to come back to earth, and probably already are. That fact puts the Astros in 2nd place in the NL Central. However, the Bad News: the Cubs are 2 games below their XW-L, and should instead be at 25-13, making us 3.5 games behind the NL Central leader is hypothetical terms.
Breaking down the offense, we can see that the Astros are improving their OBP, but are still below league average with .321 mark, but by being 5th in the NL in slugging (.422) they've managed to post a league average OPS of .743, and keep the offense moving, simply by hitting the tar out of the baseball. While OBP is down, it is interesting to note that the Astros are 7th in the NL (and exactly league average) at P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) 3.82 P/PA. That's a pretty good rate and portends to either a higher BB% or is just a indication that they seem to have be able work the count, waiting for the right pitch. Either way, it assuages fears that our offense will collapse. Perhaps cautionary, the 'Stros have hit .292 with RISP and only .265 overall. Maybe they're exhibiting clutchness or it could be harbinger of a deflating offense unless the hits keep coming when we have men on.
The one thing that we have overlooked this year when talking about pitching, is how much this team is getting killed by the long ball. We have well above average K/9 (7.0), better than average BB/9 (3.3), and are league average in GB% (44%) and LD% (19%), we've even stranded more runners than any other pitching staff in the league with a LOB% of 77%, but when it comes to HR/8 we're tops with 1.3 HR/9. Correlated to that, we also lead the league in .SLG allowed with .453, well above the league average of .408. I'm at a loss to explain the HR's, because we have excellent rate stats that indicate strong control. I guess when we're making mistakes, we're just getting punished for them big time. I'd imagine that this has to be a fluke of some sort, and via mechanics being corrected or luck evening out, will drop. As such, given our strong rate stats, the staff appears to be much better than expected so far and due for some improvement in the ERA department.
Finally, and what I feel is the most important part of this team that has been overlooked, is their defense. The team owns a .847 RZR, which is second in the NL, second only to the Cardinals. It's been outstanding so far, especially given all the pre-season doubts about Tejada's glove, Bourn's maturity in the field, and Carlos' waist-line. Speaking of Lee and Bourn, consider this the fact that Astros own an above average Out-Field RZR in the NL with a .910, while having the second worst LFer (Lee, RZR of .804). The infield is tied for second in the NL with an RZR of .810, second again to the Cardinals. Over the off-season, we observed a few Astros-centric blogs, and one in particular, that chastised this teams defense over and over again. Their main fears were that Lance was a bad 1B, Tejada would look like Carlos Lee at SS, and that the hot corner would be devoid of anything you could begin to call adequate defense. Tejada has posted a .873 RZR (good for 3rd in the NL behind the injured Tulowitzki and the Brave’s Yunel Escobar), Lance, as we already mentioned is the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, and the hot corner has been average (Wigginton .711) to above average (Blum .756).
So here’s the quick and dirty of it: This team has been getting the hits that count, when they count, which so long as their plate discipline remains, should hold true. Our pitching has been very good with the exception of the long ball, which one has to assume that will even out of the season--leaving just solid pitching. Our gloves have been great; they’ve been exceptional in some areas, average in others, and just pitiful for Carlos Lee. This looks like a team that is capable of staying the course, they’re confident, capable of winning games in any way (just look at the Dodgers series) and if anything, have room for some improvement still. In sum, we look like a contender, which in the end is all we could hope for and more than a lot of us expected.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
A Modest Proposal
Is it early in the season? Yes. Is it too early for a couple bloggers to start throwing out ideas about radical changes to the Astros? Never.
Love the player, hate the contract, or some combination of the two- regardless, Carlos Lee is here to stay. Here is the good:
Career Averages:
BA: .288 OBP: .341 Slugging: .499 HR: 30 RBI: 107 Runs: 96
That being said, Lee doesn't exactly inspire confidence with a glove in his hand. So far this season, he hasn't been credited with an error, but that doesn't begin to describe the extent of his relative ineptitude in the outfield. To give the Astros a better chance of playing winning baseball, the braintrust here at Dome Dogs makes outlandish proposal #1 for the year: put Carlos at first, and move Lance Berkman to LF.
An error only takes into account plays that reasonably should have been made by a particular defender. It was a statistic that was developed during the infancy of the sport, when gloves were hastily thrown together straps of leather that did little more than protect the player's hand. Players in today's game should be expected to be a bit more proficient in what they are able to do. Errors are handed out by the official score keeper, whose attention is primarily focused on the batter/pitcher match-up. It is a subjective call, which takes away from its legitimacy. Various statistics have been developed to put defensive performance into context, and while none of them are perfect, they are infinitely better than having only the error at the disposal of fans and statisticians alike.
Revised Zone Rating (RZR), is a defensive statistic that we're going to use to explain ourselves. Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. Hardball Times The field of play is divided as such. Basically, a player is evaluated by looking at only those zones that an average fielder at that player's position fields at least 50% of balls successfully for outs. Doing this allows statisticians to split the playing field up between fielders and give each an amount of responsibility for those zones that they are supposed to cover. For our purposes, we'll take a look at what Left Fielders and First Baseman did in 2006 (the last year I could entire fielding statistics).
Left Field (responsible for Zones F through H on line drives and C through I on fly balls and popups) :
Balls in Zone: 3,825 Plays Made: 3,264 Zone Rating: 0.853
Lee's 2007 Rating: .827
First Base (responsible for covering zones V through X, the three zones closest to the right field line):
Balls in Zone: 2,779 Plays Made: 2,083 Zone Rating: 0.750
Berkman's 2007 Rating: .718
RF:
Balls in Zone: 3,941 Plays Made: 3,428 Zone Rating: 0.87
Berkman’s 2007 Rating: .884
We can see that neither player were at league average for their positions in 2007. However, Lance (though in limited playing time) was an above average RF, which is a more difficult defensive position . Further, he successfully converted 11 balls in play into outs that were outside of his zone (OOZ) in 289 innings in RF. Carlos only managed 36 in 1369 innings.
It's tough to hypothesize how Carlos would do at first. He probably has less of an area to cover, as far as zones are concerned, but would have to learn to pick throws out of the dirt, hold runners on, etc. Either way, we say it's worth a shot: we've already seen two Lee misplays on line drives lead to runs (once yesterday against Chicago, and once against San Diego). We are not trying to say that Lance would have the range of Carl Crawford, but he would be able to cleanly play those balls that are hit into his zones at a higher rate than Lee.
