Is Miguel Tejada Fatigued? Or Are We Just Lazy?

Earlier this week, I added to my list of things that Cecil Cooper has screwed up the fact that he just keeps playing Miguel Tejada all the time. It was an off the cuff reaction to what I was observing and reading. It might hold a grain of truth, but having looked into it further, I think that I might owe Cecil Cooper a semi-meaningful apology.

The impetus for this reflection came from Baseball Prospectus’ Marc Normandin, their fantasy expert, in an article in which he dissected anamolies in the SS market. Tejada has posted an ridiculous 25.3% LD rate through this point in the season. Given that LD% he should be sporting a .373 BABIP, which would put him back on the plain of his hot April start. The reason he hasn’t, is he is also meekly hitting 28.8% of his ball in play on the ground to his pull side, where, Normandin reports, he sports a .190 BA. My thoughts upon reading that, and Normandin even suggest to this to the reader too, was that he’s hitting so poorly due to fatigue. Which may still be true.
After mulling this over and trying to decide if my gut had been right earlier this week, I decided to look at his fielding stats (and no, not his Fielding Percentage) to see if he’s playing a lot worse because of his alleged fatigue. Towards the end of May, when I half-heartedly beat around the bush at saying that the Astros were due for a horrific collapse, Miguel Tejada was sporting a .873 RZR, good for 3rd in the NL among SS. This morning I decided to look at his RZR, simply as a means to confirm the Tejada fatigue theory. If it weren’t for the fact that I’d yet to finish my first cup of coffee, I would have been totally shocked, but he’s sporting a .872 RZR and leading all qualified NL SS. So where’s the fatigue?

In my humble opinion, the fatigue isn’t to blame -- though it may indeed be there. I think Tejada needs to make some sort of adjustment, however, in order to stay back on pitches so he stops taking 28.8% straight the opposing SS for a GIDP. If he can’t correct this, he needs to be slotted down in the line-up accordingly, because we can’t afford to have Berkman and Lee stranded because Miggy can’t swing the bat right now. The thing we all have to fear, is that Tejada has never sported such a high LD%, so if that deflates, we’re in serious trouble. It’s a little disappointing too, because how often do you hear of Player X and Y were taking extra BP or where in the cage trying make whatever adjustment to stay on their “A” game? I haven’t heard anything like that for Tejada and it’s frustrating that he gets to rest on the laurels of past performance instead of plow forward.

So Cecil Cooper, I’m sorry I unjustly accused you not understanding how to effectively manage Miguel Tejada’s playing time. But, I will still think you’re an idiot for keeping him in the “heart of the order.” So let’s work on that, please. While you’re at that, tell Tejada to get his jovial ass in the batting cage.

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Is There Anything Cecil Cooper Can't Screw Up?

According to Astros.com, Doug Brocail described last night’s performance, and his most recent outings as:

"flat, flat, flat."
"I haven't thrown a fastball over 90 mph in like two weeks," he said. "I don't know what's going on. I better find it quick, because we still have four games left before the break."

You don’t know what’s wrong Doug? Really? I think I can help you, Dewy, and Cecil out: You’re tied for 2nd in appearances, with 47, at the age of 41. I don’t think there are many people who wouldn’t be able to describe their stuff as flat in your shoes Doug -- you’ve been abused. Further more, you’ve been abused because Cecil Cooper worships at the idol of “conventional wisdom.” Coop stated publicly, early on this year, that you were his “8th inning guy” and come hell and high-water, you’ve been that. With the rare exception of two or three days when you’ve been deemed off-limits.

This only slightly less foolish than the Cubs’ Carlos Marmol having accumulated the same amount of appearances this season, in terms of things that are good for a the team. I just don’t get it. I probably never will. It’s obvious. JD and Brownie mention it backwardly all the time and I know Evan and I rant about it to friends and family all the time too. So why is that Cecil Cooper hasn’t figured out that you can’t manage players in a robotical manner? Just because Brocail is our best 8th inning option, in conventional terms, it doesn’t mean that every time the Astros are winning or are still “in it” that Coop should just pull the “Brocail” lever. Just imagine how bad Brocail would feel if they Astros weren’t dead last in the NL Central. We can add this to the list of things that Cecil Cooper is doing to ensure this team underperforms. At some point this madness has to stop -- I hope.

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Ed Wade Makes a Pretty Lousy Scape-Goat

The Astros suck. There’s really no debating it. There’s room for debate as to why they suck -- it could be luck, it could be terrible management, it could be declining ability, and lack of talent, but it’s not for lack of trying. I was excited when Ed Wade came to Houston; a lot of people weren’t. Evan and I had discussed Philadelphia’s center-fielder in waiting Michael Bourn several times at the trade deadline in ’07. We had heard of his tools spoken of highly from snippet’s like this:

“A couple of years ago, we might have gotten very, very excited about a player who posted a .379 translated OBP as a 21-year-old. Now we're only very excited about him. Bourn's plate discipline is outstanding, and it helps that he's a little bit undersized as 5'11", reducing the size of his strike zone. His stolen-base ability rates just about as high as it can: He not only has tremendous speed, but also instinctive technique on the basepaths, which led to perhaps the most impressive SB-CS ratio in minor league baseball. While he's not a natural center fielder, he certainly has the speed to handle the position, and should improve his routes over time.”
--Baseball Prospectus, 2005.

When the trigger was pulled by Ed Wade last fall, I caught it in an email at 10 o’clock while I was studying in the library. I raced out and immediately notified Evan, he was so overjoyed, he thought I was joking. On more than one occasion this winter, I defended the trade and I’ll still defend this trade for one reason: Michael Bourn is 25 years old and he’s just barely accumulated 300 PA at the major league level. Everyone knew Brad Lidge still had it, but he wouldn’t find it in Houston -- how do you sell that at the bargaining table to another GM though? I was just as big of fan of Luke Scott and his ability as anyone, but I believed (and still do) that in the long run, this was the right move for the team. Luke Scott is 30 and is at his peak, which finds him to be a streaky, but effective RF with average defensive capabilities. Michael Bourn is 25, has been rushed through the minor leagues, but has possessed three notable skills his entire life: working PA for walks or finding his pitch, stealing bases effectively, and defense. He hasn’t had a lot of time to adjust to major league pitching, but I fully believe his eye will catch up, he has two to five years to reach his “peak” and we’d be fools not to believe that will happen. Further, with proper management, he’d be a much more lethal steal threat, but he’s been encouraged to be reckless by an incompetent manager. In three years I think we will look back on this trade and be very pleased about having an outfield anchored by Pence and Bourn at the peak of their abilities, instead of Pence and two aged veterans on the way downside of their careers (Lee and Scott).

Flip-flopping Richard Justice had these unremarkable ten cents to throw in the debate:

The issue isn't whether Ed Wade got enough for Lidge. He didn't. There's hardly an argument to be made about that.
This evaluation will be subject to review if Michael Bourn becomes the impact player Wade believed he'd be at the time of the trade. With fewer than 500 career at-bats, Bourn might get there.

The day before, Justice had lambasted the Tejada deal, which was set in motion by the Bourn trade:

To Ed Wade's list of mistakes, add the name of Miguel Tejada. Put another $26 million on the general manager's tab.

However, his colleague Steve Campbell has the more intelligent and level-head view of Tejada’s woes and should be praised accordingly, as such characteristics are not often contained in Houston Chronicle ink. Cambell eloquently penned “Maybe Cooper decided he needed a day off from watching Miguel Tejada's heavy-legged pursuit of ground balls and sluggish swings of the bat.” Miguel is 34, and as Campbell points out, he can’t be the iron-man he was in his youth and still be remotely effective. Sometimes players have to swallow their pride and admit they’re human and in that light, Tejada needs to look to his former predecessor (some dude name Ripken), for a cue. Cooper on the other hand, has no excuse. I’m sick of Cecil Cooper getting off on “learning-curve” excuse. The man has been a coach or a manager for many, many years prior to his gig as a big-league manager -- there should be no learning curve for just about all the things he keeps screwing up.

Some of Ed Wade’s moves had the mark of a desperate man, but he was exactly that. I fully believe that the Bourn deal will play out as his best. Tejada was traded away for two hurt pitchers, an ineffective relief pitcher, and Luke Scott. If Tejada were to be used effectively, he would currently, along with Valverde, represent one of our two most expendable and prized trade chips heading into the trade deadline. The Dodgers need a SS with a bat desperately and the Red Sox desire both a SS and relief pitcher just as much, if not more. Ed Wade has options to shore up the Astros future if Drayton allows him to trade Valverde and if Tejada can put together a solid two weeks before the deadline, Drayton should allow him to be traded away too. Bourn, Pence, and Towles could be the foundation of the next generation of Astros, and they could have an excellent supporting cast if Ed Wade can strike while the iron’s hot. If he can’t than Drayton will continue to shoulder the blame for the organization tanking. It’s not Ed Wades fault the Astros are awful this year. Drayton gave him a no win situation and Cecil Cooper has done literally everything in his power to stymie the effectiveness of our pitching staff and our offense. Right now Astros fans might want Ed Wade’s head, but they should probably direct their rage towards Coop and Drayton before they go after Ed.

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The Trickle Down Effect of Incompetence

As we enter into the series with the Red Sox this weekend, we should first pause to enjoy the fact that Drayton Mclane lobbied his crony Bud Selig very hard to have us get schlacked for three games so he could sell double-priced tickets. Good call. We should also note the disparity between the Boston Red Sox and our own organization. Just look at the pitching staff they have on the major league level and then if you want to depress yourself further, look at what their minor league players are doing at AA and AAA. In the same off-season in which we spent $100 million for Carlos Lee, the Red Sox spent $100 million for Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox are a team that knows how to assemble a winning baseball team. Their owner has deferred to some of the smartest minds in baseball to ensure this commitment is realized. Drayton McLane has no concept of how to field a winning team, yet meddles in just about every aspect of the baseball operations; from encouraging us to sign ludicrous contracts with players who won’t live up to the dollar signs; refusing to know when to fold them and unload veterans for young talent at the deadline two years in a row; and refusing to sign the scarce amount of young talent we’ve been able to draft for the last few years. So watch the Red Sox this weekend and drool over what a well run organization looks like.

This trend of undervaluing the strongest correlation to winning baseball games, preventing runs from scoring, pervades not just ownership, but management as well. Journalists apparently also undervalue it. Here’s a quote from Richard Justice this morning:

"If [Cecil Cooper] has a problem, it probably is with the pitching staff... His challenge may be in dealing with pitchers, with explaining why he's doing things, with doing as much listening as talking.”

The quote comes from a column debunking an alleged toxic atmosphere in the Astros’ club house, but if Cooper is failing to communicate effectively or at all with the pitching staff (which the article suggests in some parts) then how is it not toxic? For Justice not to lambast Cooper for failings that he is seeing and hearing in the clubhouse is infuriating.

Let’s break down what a baseball game is. There are 8 position players, who hit and if it’s the AL, there is one fat dude who sits on the bench and swings the bat for the pitcher. So each hitter accounts for 1/9 of offense, which occurs every 1/2 inning, meaning that each hitter accounts for 1/18 of the game. The pitcher, who is responsible for preventing runs from scoring by getting the batter out, preferably striking him out, or making the job of the defenders behind as easy as possible by creating “bad swings” accounts for the other 1/2 of the game. While each defender clearly has a role to play in run prevention it’s not near as much as the pitchers. If Cecil Cooper is failing his team by not properly communicating crucial information to his pitching staff, he’s doing a great disservice to his team. We’ve already chronicled how bad he is at managing an offense to produce runs, but if he’s botching his pitching staff’s mental approach to the game, then he needs to go, because he’s doing an unacceptable job.

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Cecil Cooper Would Fail the Wonderlic Too

"We've been stealing bases all year," he said. "This is what we do. We've emphasized it from Spring Training on. We're going to try and steal as many bases as we can and be aggressive.” -- Cecil Cooper

Reading the entire article just about killed me. The context comes from Coop trying to defend sending Ty Wigginton on a 1-2 pitch to Michael Bourn, from Kyle Farnsworth, a man who hurls the ball at 97 MPH with ease, in the bottom of the 9th with no outs. Here’s the thing, Cooper may just be going senile, because that never happened (for proof, click here). Ty Wigginton was caught stealing second with one out in the bottom of the 9th with Geoff Blum at the plate. Either way, it was stupid call, one that Coop, at least in his made version of the events, “I would do that 100 times in a row.”
Early this season, lambasted Cooper’s hyper-aggressive base-running philosophy as actually having a meaningful run production killing effect. Ty’s CS is probably just as asinine and stupid of a decision as Bourn being sent and caught stealing 3rd in the 6th. Second base is called scoring position for a reason and you keep a guy with speed for the exact reason that he should be able to score from second on just about any hit.

There are two issues I take with all of this. Much like Evan mentioned yesterday, it’s frightening that man who has been entrusted to manage $95 million worth of assets can a) not keep track of crucial game situations and b) knows next to nothing about game theory.

It should be apparent to any Astros fan paying attention recently, that there have been a marked up tick in CS for Michael Bourn and the Astros as a team. Why is this? Well it’s for the exact reasons as the quote I lead off with: Coop is just going to keep sending the runners as much as possible. Thus, opposing managers know -- either by looking at the numbers or paying attention to the media -- that the Astros are going to attempt a steal very often. So as a result, pitch-out’s are called or catcher’s are primed to make a throwing attempt. It’s game theory, if you know how you’re opponent is going to act, you can then effectively choose a strategy that provides maximum benefit given your opponent’s course of action. Think of it like playing poker with a friend. If you know your friend likes to play conservatively and therefore rarely calls bluffs, it makes since for you to try and bluff as often as possible. Logically, you can only do this for so long -- if your friend is smart that is -- until your buddy will pick up on your boldness and change their strategy (please admire my astute political correctness with the pronouns). Cecil, I’ve got some news for you buddy, everyone’s picked up on your strategy; you’re practically shouting from the roof tops.

That such idiocy is allowed to run rampant, is frightening and shameful, but we’re pretty much an organization that is operated on such terms. My advice, fire Drayton McLane. We’ll have more on that to come.

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Thoughts

There are Pinstripes among us. Not the one that our boys wear. These pinstripers. With the Yankees embarking on a historic (for the Astros) roadtrip to Houston, an exciting series is hopefully in store. On the one hand, you've got a Yankees team who are sort of humming along like we've been accustomed to them doing in the first half of the season. As is the case with many teams, injuries have had a tremendous affect on New York's season. On the other, we have the Astros who have been scuffling of late after looking like world beaters in May. At a game below .500 (33-34), the team is searching for answers as to their recent poor play.

Among those searching is Cecil Cooper, who is quoted as saying that the pitching staff's propensity to give up home runs, "wont't cut it". After reading that, I'm more certain than ever that, on the whole, people don't know any more about the sport than they did one hundred years ago. How baseball managers and insiders can't do exactly what Stephen did in his last post is incredibly frustrating. With the recent advancements in analyzation, including both the statistics of players and the organization itself, it is foolhardy for a team to not adapt. How is it that Drayton McLane can't transfer his business acumen to heading a professional baseball team? The most stark example of his ineptitude is exhibited perhaps not by McLane himself, but by those people that he hires to run the day to day operations of his club. The product that is most visible to the general public, the Astros, are run by a man who has said the following with a straight face, when asked about Lance Berkman bunting his way on base while losing 5-1 in the eighth inning to Milwaukee:

"'That's a good play,' Cooper said of Berkman's decision to bunt with the third baseman playing him deep. 'That's a baseball player's play. It's a nice job. We need baserunners. If you hit a ball out of a ballpark, I call them rally-killers when you get down like that. We need to keep a rally going, and that was a nice play to me.'"

This argument is so convoluted and nonsensical that I have to close my eyes every time I see it, just to calm myself.

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Coop admits he's an idiot

Most baseball fans love to quibble about the line-up, or which pinch hitter should have been used, etc. The fact of the matter is, however, that our fandom should have us hyper-critically analyzing not the line-up (for proof go pick up a copy of The Book or Baseball Between the Numbers) or pinch-hitter debates which, often center around who's hot and who's not, or platoon splits, or batter pitcher match-ups. Google all of those phrases with sabermetrics attached and you'll find definitive repudiations for everything but the platoon splits, making the pinch hitter debate pretty cut and dry.

The most important thing that a manager, in either league, does during the course of a major league baseball game is manage his pitchers. When to take the starter out, which reliever to go do, how to keep everyone's usage at maximum efficiency, while keeping everyone healthy. In a recent interview, Coop admitted that going with his gut has not worked well for him this season. Alyson Footer politely titled the article "Cooper Learns on the Job". Good for her, because I don't see much room for excuses. There is a wealth of information out there that would allow Cecil Cooper to make infinitely more effective decisions with pitcher usage if he were to be willing to check his gut -- or as he praised it in the interview, the search for a TLR sixth-sense. Really extra senses? That's what it takes to be a big league manager? In the mean time, Coop I'll give you some helpful hints: Win-Expectancy, Run-Expectancy, Leverage-Index (especially when taking out the starter, and deciding on which reliever to use). It would be a nice little plane ride of reading. There are plenty of charts that you could keep with you in the dugout. Just please, please don't take all season waiting for your sixth sense to develop, because I have news for you Coop, there are only five.

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Where there's smoke

We've touched on Cecil Cooper's....er...."unorthodox" (read: silly) managerial moves before (specifically: here, here, here here, and here). He made another last night that could have changed the outcome of a fairly important game, as far as late May divisional games are concerned. Top of the seventh inning, two outs, Hunter Pence is on second base, with the Astros down 3-1. Pence followed Carlos Lee's bomb with sharp single to center but is in danger of being stranded and letting a rare scoring opportunity go by the boards. Roy has pitched pretty well. He overcame some early wildness, to give up only one run over his previous five innings of work. Now, with Cards starter Kyle Lohse on the ropes, Cooper leaves in Oswalt to hit for himself. We all know Roy is a competitor who after throwing only 79 pitches to that point was well within the sensible range of being left out to throw another inning. However, two things make me question this move. The first of which is the fact that Roy has had groin problems recently. Why test it in May? Any shot, and I mean ANY shot this team has to compete for a playoff birth is going to hinge on the right arm and healthy groin(s)of Roy Oswalt. As far as in game management in concerned, unless your starter is throwing an absolute gem at that point, it is probably best to not look a gift scoring opportunity in the mouth.

Another important issue that seems to be rearing it's ugly head is a lack of communication between Oswalt and Cooper. We saw a couple weeks ago that both men may not be on the same page. I'm not trying to insinuate anything at this point, but this is something to keep in the back of our collective mind. AM 790's Craig Roberts cited an unnamed team official who, when asked by Roberts if anything was amiss with the Oswalt/Cooper relationship, said (paraphrasing) "that's not something I'd like to get into at this point." That's never a good thing to hear. A lot of this probably has to do with Roy's struggles thus far. Both seem to be reasonable, team first guys, which gives me confidence this whole episode is nothing blown up into something.

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The Long Ball: Public Enemy Number One

8 HR in two games. Ok that's unfair because 6 came last night and 3 came of Oscar Villareal alone, but still you catch my drift. On a night when Roy was apparently struggling with a his groin, the defense continued to falter some more (or at least it did to me). Two games are nothing to get excited over, but perhaps these two might be. Earlier this week, I highlighted the fact that the Astros were leading the league in surrendering home runs and were playing outstanding defense.

With the Astros in the thick of things, I cautioned that if our pitchers aren't just being the victim of statistical noise (luck) and if the defense slows down as we get into the grind of the season that'd we'd be in big trouble. Tonight our bats were silent after the 1st and the exception, of course, of Lance Berkman. This team won't get anything done without the bats -- no matter what the pitchers or gloves are doing. Now that Bourn is down in the line-up, the line-up feels a lot more like the line-up has in years past: 3 easy outs come 7-8-9. I can't throw any numbers at the this really, but it just the feeling I've got.

While typing this and watching the post game interviews, it was interesting to note the disparity between Coop and Roy's account of the 6th/7th innings. Coop was interviewed first and presented the story as Roy came back into the dugout and wanted to go back out and throw in the 7th. Roy, not five minutes later, said that the groin flared up in the 6th, but he got through it. Then, came into the dugout and told him his night was over, but that they (Coop and the Coaches I assume) asked for him to go back out. I'm not going to point fingers, it was just something caught my attention. Talking with Evan on the phone after the game, we came to the conclusion that even if Roy misses some time, it might not be as bad as it sounds. With no disrespect to Roy, he hasn't exactly been dominant this year (certainly flashes of brilliance, but no real consistently great performances). With Wandy due to return soon, we should manage just fine -- I hope.

Wiggy finally looked good at the plate in his last two AB's. Bourn got a hit, but followed with a CS. Kaz got CS too. I guess tonight, and maybe this series, wasn't our night, or series. Even if we bomb tomorrow's game, we'll finish the road trip with a 6-4 record, which is more than you can ask for from the Astros on the road, on the West Coast, and in Arlington. We open the home stand against the Cubs, which is when the real challenge begins. HR rates and Defensive Zone Ratings aside, this team has got to stick it to their Central rivals if this season will go anywhere.

Homework assignment: Watch and listen for how little attention Lance will get for being on this tear he's on from ESPN. Compare that to home many times A-Rod going yard in his minor league rehab assignment gets talked about.

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What the HELL are they thinking?

Why on earth would you bench your competent defensive shortstop when you are starting your ground ball pitcher who relies heavily on defense?? Anyone? Because it just led to a 2-runs in 2/3 of inning. This just chaps my ass.\

**UPDATE TOP OF THE 4TH**

We're down 2-6 after a Lance Berkman 2 RBI single, preceded by Kaz Matsui's head hunting line drive through Lincecum, and Pence making Randy Winn sees stars on the RF wall. I'm still pissed that we should only be down 4-2, WE SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TWO RUNS. WHY WOULD YOU START SOMEONE AT SHORT WHO HASN'T PLAYED MEANINGFUL SS IN MONTHS WITH CHRIS SAMPSON ON THE MOUND??? Chris Sampson isn't that great of a pitcher; he's as good as the defense that's behind him. Further, we're facing one of the best RHP in the league--why would you take away on of your best offensive threats?

As I typed, Mark Loretta just ripped a line-drive single to LF to bring in Lance: 3-6. At this point we should only be down a run. I still could just kick Cecil Cooper square in the nuts.

It's the end of the 4th now. Chris has to be sharp this inning, because we have a depleted bull pen courtesy of Coop "managing like it was Game 7 of the World Series" last night (JD's words). This team is the thick of things in the NL Central and in the Wild Card...why is Coop conceding games??

**UPDATE 5TH INNING**

Chris was solid in his frame...until Mark Loretta botched a throw to Lance, another run that shouldn't be on the board. Furor at an all time high so far.

**UPDATE MIDDLE OF THE 6TH**

Hopefully we're going to get the Giants bull pen...Carlos stole a base, which was entertaining to watch. At this point I'm just apathetic to baseball.

Great article about the future of baseball analysis.

**UPDATE TOP OF THE 8TH 1 OUT**

It's tied 7-7, Erstad hit a monster homerun, after Carlos Lee went yard, Blum reached on a WP K, and Loretta singled. I was listening to the game in my car, as I went to run an errand. I was livid that Erstad was in to PH, then the radio goons (seriously those guys suck) rattled off his numbers in AT&T Park. It was glorious hearing the call, so much so that I almost got in a car wreck. After my joy subsided, I realized that we should be winning the damn ball game though. We better win this game or I'll call for Coops balls. Seriously, this team is so good right now, too good to concede games based on pitching match-ups alone. Frustrations aside, good ball game now...GOD I HOPE WE HOLD ON TO IT! If Loretta makes an error, I don't know if I can stand it.

**TOP OF THE 9TH**
Lance Berkman continues his torrid pace by going yard off Brian Wilson. I love Lance, still could kick Coop in the crotch, and I'm excited for what develops after Carlos Lee's single. I'd still like to note that the score should be 4-8.

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Coop Points Finger In the Wrong Direction

Cecil Cooper was not happy after today's loss to the Diamondbacks. The thing is, the blame sits pretty squarely on his shoulders. Perhaps it wasn't the best idea to take out Wesley Wright, who we've already noted as being a incredibly hard-nosed pitcher when it counts in favor of Dave Borkowski, who had logged 3 consecutive outings totaling 3 innings in three days from the 26th-28th, the last being a 1.2 inning affair. You have to know he's not going to be sharp, so why do it? Wright went an inning on Monday night, but it was a very quick outing, needing less than 10 pitches to get through it. Further, he's actually been more effective against Right-Handed hitters this year too (.167 BA against Righties with a 1.13 WHIP vs. .182 BA and 1.33 WHIP against lefties). Why take out Wright especially as Coop obviously thought that Owings wasn't a threat, as evidenced by his media rant, "'We can't get the stinking pitcher out, we're in trouble'". Coop goes on to denigrate just about everyone on the team, yet never considers that his shoddy managerial skills set his players up for failures. I'm not saying that he's entirely to blame for our loss, but I have tried to point out several times this season that he's made a lot of questionable calls this year. Some of them turned out alright, some not so good. Managers will make some bad calls during the course of the season, it's understandable. However, Coop's made a lot in a month's time and ranting and raving about how your players blew the game isn't the best managerial tactic either. I would have loved to hear a "the buck stops here" admission instead.

***On a separate, unrelated note: Does anyone think that the salsa music that FSN is incessantly playing during Miggy at bats is just a law suit waiting to happen?***

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Coop, You're Blowing It

At the risk of sounding like a whiny bitch, I'm going to criticize Coop's management decisions yet again. I'm justing to limit myself to the bottom of the ninth inning. As we rolled back from commercials, my stomach turned to see Dave Borkowski atop the mound and I thought "Jesus, does Coop just want to lose this game?" Brocail had just sailed through the 8th inning in which he had faced Duncan, Glaus, and Kennedy. Kennedy is somewhat a schlub, yes, but the other two are by no means easy outs, and Brocail just looked automatic. However, I guess Coop didn't mind that TLR was going for the win so much so, that he left his starter in to amass over 120 pitches this start to go the Complete Game. Coop just simply countered with sending out the 6th inning/mop-up guy, from last year...brilliant. As JD and Brownie rolled off Borkowski's stats and the camera's panned around, I kept waiting to hear/see a Carlos Lee defensive replacement. Lee was 8th up in the 10th if we made it and the game HAD to make it out of this inning for our bats to even factor back into the game. Alas, Coop chose to take out Brocail for a worse pitcher AND left Shamoo out there to try to keep the game tied.

Now some of you might be thinking, "Stephen, this is a little harsh" and maybe even, "Carlos Lee isn't that bad at LF." So I'll give you this, Carlos Lee is the second worse LFer in the National League. That's right, you just about cannot get worse than he is.

We all know what happened, but I'll give you a little visual courtesy of FanGraphs to drive the point home:


That Skip Schumaker single, which was preceded by some absolutely piss poor pitching by Dave Borkowski, allowed Carlos Lee's "defense" to lose the game for us. Look at the impact of that single. Think about that single to left that Carlos couldn't handle the hop on/get to at all because he's to BIG to be quick or agile enough to make the play. Then consider that Jose Cruz Jr, was just sitting on the bench. It's rare that management decisions win or lose games, my SB% article is a clear example of how manager's decisions can help or hurt their teams chances of winning, but the impact isn't a hugely significant amount. Yesterday, Cecil Cooper set this team up to lose, while TLR was doing everything he could to get his team win. Instead of being 1 over .500, we go into today's game a game under .500. Instead of having an opportunity to pull even with the Cardinals with the series sweep, we're simply trying to win the rubber game. All of it, chaps my ass. Something has got to be done about the train-wreck we have lumbering around in left-field. Evan and I will once again present our Modest Proposal as a possible solution.

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How Not to "Manufacture" Runs: The Cecil Cooper Story

Earlier this week, I lambasted Cecil Cooper for calling on JR Towles to sac bunt in the 8th inning against Brian Fuentes. To make my case I utilized a statistic known as Run Expectancy (along with Win Expectancy, but I won’t be using that today). Well, today I’m going to pick on Cecil again. This time for his over aggressive base running and will try to make my case with Run Expectancy.

Courtesy of ESPN, the Astros have a SB% of 80% (24/30) which, on the whole doesn’t seem that bad. But lets break that down a little bit to get at what is bugging me. Michael Bourn is 13/13 in steals this year, so if you exclude him, we’re suddenly 64.7% (11/17) in SB%. Not so good. If we want to get really crazy, we can exclude Lance Berkman who some how is 4/4 in SB this year, which further reduces the Astros SB% to 53.8% (7/13). That’s not good.

All this begs the question, how bad has this been or how bad is this really? If you read the first article I wrote, we saw the sheer value of the out as far as Run Expectancy is concerned (or at least I hope I made my case). However, aside from quoting numbers from certain game states, the famed sabermetrician Tom Tango, has expounded upon the concept of Run Expectancy, devising linear weights. Tangotiger, as he is affectionately known, has done a lot of work looking into how runs are created utilizing linear weights and most of it is stuff I won’t ever pretend to really understand. However, he has provided general measurements for the run creating effects of every single offensive outcome in baseball. Using this data, we can come up with an approximation for just how bad our 53.8% SB% for non-Bourn/Berkman Astros has been for the team, as well as what the continued costs to run production could be if such aggressive base running tactics are pursued.

A stolen base (SB), according to TangoTiger, is valued at .19 of run, purely because it moves the runner over. This the marginal effect that a stolen base has on run expectations. The flip side, getting caught stealing (CS) has a value of -.44, meaning that it marginally reduces the run expectation by .44. We can break the CS run value up further, by looking at how it reduces the run expectations. It has an “inning-killing effect” of -.16 and a “moving the runner over effect” of -.02. The other -.26 is the "getting on effect" because creating that out reduces the likelihood that the next batter gets on, given that he has less outs to work it.

At face value, we can see that stealing bases is a bad proposition because the marginal benefit exceeds the marginal costs -- unless you have a “sure thing.” Like Michael Bourn. But back to what has our SB% for non-Bourn/Berkman players done to the team in terms of run-production.

Doing so simple multiplication, we discover that so far this season, when Cecil Cooper has called for a non-Bourn/Berkman Astro to steal a base, he’s reduced run expectations by 1.31. runs (1..33 for SB + -2.64 CS). While that -1.31 marginal run value doesn’t seem all that important, think of it this way: I’ve already projected the Astros to score about 5.1 runs/game on average through out the season, which means we’ll average about .6 runs per-inning (5.1/8.5 for the consideration that that last half inning isn’t played often times). If .6 runs per inning is what we expected to produce, then losing .10 runs (the -1.31 run value divided by the 13 attempts at stealing) on shoddy base running cannot be afforded, because that’s is a 1/6 our offensive production per inning right there.

I say run Michael Bourn up and down the field, he has the kind of speed and acceleration that track stars dream of so he’s a low-risk, high-reward baserunner. The rest of the team (except for the Big Puma, who’s decided to exhibit puma-like traits on the base paths this year) hasn’t done so well. I can’t say whether it’s ability or bad play calling, so I’ll assume it’s some combination thereof. Thus if the Astros are going to continue to score runs, they can’t survive on some how producing 52 2-out RBI’s in 22 games. Instead, their manager will have to be a little more prudent in how he gets his team to manufacture runs.

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Playing by "The Book"

Yesterday, I had the very delightful treat of sitting 4 rows back on the third-base line, just passed the Rockies Dugout. The seats were excellent, the company the best, and the Astros come-back victory was frustrating, but incredible. While I could hem and haw about how I don't like the current line-up, in the end, line-ups aren't that important (see: Billy Martin). Instead, I'm going to focus on the bottom of the 8th.

Brian Fuentes came into the ball game, which was a good omen for me, because the last time I was at Minute Maid and he came into the ball game, Mark Loretta hit a walk-off HR. His first batter, Hunter Pence. If ever Pence was going to get a big hit, it was against the erratic lefty, and after a 1-2 count, he hit a flier into Center for a single. In comes JR Towles, he of the .429/.636/.857 split stat against lefties, with the Astros looking at a .783 Run-Expectancy (the number of runs expected to score, given the historic data of runner's scoring in that exact game state, in this case, a runner on 1st, with no outs) and a Win-Expectancy of 41.1% (meaning that historically, a home team trailing by two-runs in the bottom of the 8th inning that get their lead runner on with no outs have gone on to win 41.1% of the time). So in steps a man who slugs over .800 against lefties, hits of .400 against lefties, and gets on base an astounding 64% of the time...AGAINST LEFTIES. Seriously, just read through line again...that makes Barry Bonds drool. So what does Coop do...he throws the book at Fuentes and calls for the Sac-Bunt.

ANECDOTE: So I see Towles square to bunt, and an a few obscenities fly. My virulent anger is further stoked by the fact that the numbers I just quoted you loomed on the jumbotron in Right as JR squared to bunt. My question is: Does Coop need his Rx changed on the glasses, because as I saw it we had a man who crushes lefties, facing a a lefty who is known for his struggles; what more could the man ask for? Everyone around me was perplexed and I will now attempt to explain:

a)Why I was livid
and
b)Exactly how lucky we got

So Towles drops down a bunt, is thrown out at first and Pence is safe at second. The Astros now had a Run-Expectancy (RE) of .699 and Win-Expectancy (WE) of 36.6%. We let a person who has just one of the most distinct split-stats possible against Left-Handed Pitching drop down and sacrifice bunt to decrease our odds of tying the game and decrease our odds of winning the game, while facing a LEFT-HANDED PITCHER!!! On what planet does that make sense? Say Towles simply got a hit, or just a walk that moves Pence to second with no outs, our RE would have been 1.38, meaning we would have doubled the RE.

There we were, Pence on Second, 1 out, and in comes Mark Loretta to Pinch-Hit, he draws a 4-0 BB, which because it was the sloppiest pitching of the day, incensed me even more, given that we WASTED an out when Fuentes was struggles-city. So with Loretta on First and Pence still on second, the WE goes to 41.2%. Please think about that for a second. We wasted an out to get back to the exact same WE. We also wasted an out to get the RE to .888. So one out later we've added to the probability that we'll tie the game, marginally.

In comes Michael Bourn, who as a left-handed hitter has .179/.273/.503 against left-handed pitching...Mario Mendoza, eat your heart out. I guess it's hard to fault Coop for not pinch-hitting for Bourn given that I can't think of who we could have put up there and Bourn's obvious defensive value...but still, I'm hung up on the fact that he made Towles create an out when Towles CRUSHES lefties. So Bourn, grounds into a 1-3, but moves Loretta and Pence over. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs. The RE is .611. Yes, we are now at the lowest point of the inning as far as RE goes, and our WE is 34%. Are you beginning to comprehend the insane cost of that Sac-Bunt and of that precious out that was WASTED?

What happened next could be called clutch, but I've already done a far bit of talking about clutch and luck, so I'm calling it Luck. Kaz Matsui worked the count full and then banged out a single to left field. Hunter Pence and Mark Loretta score. Our WE sky-rockets from 34% to 84% on that single. Remember too that we had an expected Run value of .611 runs, and managed to drive in two, and the later 3 on Tejada's double. We got insanely lucky. Just look at the graph of our WE throughout the game. Whether you believe in clutch or luck, you have to admit, what happened was highly improbable (which, of course, the numbers attest too). 2-out rallies happen, but they're luck more than skill. Players who crush left-handed pitching generally crush left-handed pitching, no matter what.

Of course everyone who had heard me curse Cecil Cooper for calling for that bunt gave me some form of a smug-I-told-you-so type look, but at least you and I know that we just lucked out. More than that we all have a better appreciation for the supreme value of an out.

Sources:
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2008-04-20&team=Astros&dh=0
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=4842

**UPDATE**
Wholly unrelated to the post, but absolutely incredible nonetheless:

The Best Chicago Cubs rant, EVER

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Dude, you're blowing it

"Dude, you're blowing it," was the favorite line of a dude-bra friend of mine who graduated last year, but Jose Valverde can congratulate himself on eliciting the phrase from me, with 96% of a loss tonight. 8 innings of shut out baseball by Chacon, only to have Coop pull him from the game with a scant 109 pitches...WHY? Whatever Cooper's idiocy, Valverde's absolutely dismal performance can be blamed on no one but himself. Last week I suggested that luck is a large part of the game, while I hold firm to that claim, tonight, Valverde made his own luck with abysmal pitching. Here's to hoping he figures himself out, SOON.

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