The Trickle Down Effect of Incompetence

As we enter into the series with the Red Sox this weekend, we should first pause to enjoy the fact that Drayton Mclane lobbied his crony Bud Selig very hard to have us get schlacked for three games so he could sell double-priced tickets. Good call. We should also note the disparity between the Boston Red Sox and our own organization. Just look at the pitching staff they have on the major league level and then if you want to depress yourself further, look at what their minor league players are doing at AA and AAA. In the same off-season in which we spent $100 million for Carlos Lee, the Red Sox spent $100 million for Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox are a team that knows how to assemble a winning baseball team. Their owner has deferred to some of the smartest minds in baseball to ensure this commitment is realized. Drayton McLane has no concept of how to field a winning team, yet meddles in just about every aspect of the baseball operations; from encouraging us to sign ludicrous contracts with players who won’t live up to the dollar signs; refusing to know when to fold them and unload veterans for young talent at the deadline two years in a row; and refusing to sign the scarce amount of young talent we’ve been able to draft for the last few years. So watch the Red Sox this weekend and drool over what a well run organization looks like.

This trend of undervaluing the strongest correlation to winning baseball games, preventing runs from scoring, pervades not just ownership, but management as well. Journalists apparently also undervalue it. Here’s a quote from Richard Justice this morning:

"If [Cecil Cooper] has a problem, it probably is with the pitching staff... His challenge may be in dealing with pitchers, with explaining why he's doing things, with doing as much listening as talking.”

The quote comes from a column debunking an alleged toxic atmosphere in the Astros’ club house, but if Cooper is failing to communicate effectively or at all with the pitching staff (which the article suggests in some parts) then how is it not toxic? For Justice not to lambast Cooper for failings that he is seeing and hearing in the clubhouse is infuriating.

Let’s break down what a baseball game is. There are 8 position players, who hit and if it’s the AL, there is one fat dude who sits on the bench and swings the bat for the pitcher. So each hitter accounts for 1/9 of offense, which occurs every 1/2 inning, meaning that each hitter accounts for 1/18 of the game. The pitcher, who is responsible for preventing runs from scoring by getting the batter out, preferably striking him out, or making the job of the defenders behind as easy as possible by creating “bad swings” accounts for the other 1/2 of the game. While each defender clearly has a role to play in run prevention it’s not near as much as the pitchers. If Cecil Cooper is failing his team by not properly communicating crucial information to his pitching staff, he’s doing a great disservice to his team. We’ve already chronicled how bad he is at managing an offense to produce runs, but if he’s botching his pitching staff’s mental approach to the game, then he needs to go, because he’s doing an unacceptable job.

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Astros' Fire Sale 2008

A few days late and a few dollars short (does it work like that?), but it’s better than nothing. Saturday morning, I opened the Chronicle to find Steve Campbell’s piece gracing the bottom of the Sports section’s front page. I read the title, "Forsaking all to serve youth an empty answer" and I actually though it looked interesting and looked forward to it, foolishly.

I’ll start this off with a little quote from the article. It should be sufficient to demonstrate that it truly takes persistence, not talent to become a journalist.

“A 4-3 victory over the Rays on Friday won't stop the clamor to strip-mine the roster and start anew. Wouldn't it be invigorating and exhilarating to watch a young team grow up together the way the Rays have?
No. No. A thousand times no.
The Astros can — and should — restock their cupboard without giving up on the rest of the decade..”

My question (and I hope your question) is: How do they accomplish that task Steve? If he know’s that, then every owner in MLB should be clamoring for him to become their GM.

I’ll provide you another Steve Quote from this article, “Yes, the Astros look awful. No, it’s not time for a fire sale.”

“No, I don't see any impending signs of a miraculous turnaround this season. At the same time, I wouldn't be so eager to give up on 2009, 2010 and 2011. If McLane were to change his mind and decide to auction off his marketable players for prospects, the Astros would be doomed to some truly dark and dreary days.”

And what will the Astros be during those seasons if nothing is done? We’re not the second to last rated farm system because there are just 28 really, really good farm systems ahead of us -- it’s actually because it’s terrible. So Mr. Campbell is really saying this, “The Astros are totally screwed in 2008, the trades didn’t bring in enough offense to offset historically bad pitching. At the same time, I think if we just keep things they way they are: let Carlos Lee get a year older and at least 15 lbs. bigger, Lance’s legs a year older, Tejada a full THREE years older, and Roy’s arm a year more fatigued, then that way the supporting cast of characters can come around and we’ll be a play off contender.” Think about that, really. This team looks like it’s about a 72 - 90 team. Maybe it’ll be 75 - 87, what a thrill. If things improve next year (meaning we’re not using Brian Moheler as our number four starter) then who knows, we might break into the 80 win territory, but who cares. This team isn’t a play-off contention team for the next three years, nor is it a winning team. So the rest of the decade’s a wash anyway Steve-O.

Campbell notes that Bourn and Towles have yet to develop and that Roy just has been off (of course, readers of this blog know that, given our last look at Roy). Brilliant Steve. So if our Rookies didn’t need a learning curve and Roy didn’t get snake bit, we’d probably be better. It sounds very reasonable, here’s the thing though: when Roy was at his worst and so were Bourn and Towles, we were winning games. Even with Bourn doing much better, Roy getting over his luck or statistical noise, and Towles maybe hitting, we still have three other starters that offer not an ounce of consistency. Moheler is our fourth stater. Moehler is our fourth starter and injury has nothing to do with it. So, while it might be possible that the next two years could see improved offenses, there seems to be ZERO means of shoring up pitching enough to allow for us to field a winning team (see the Detroit Tigers).

We’re screwed if we sit with these guys and hope that something breaks our way in the next two years and allows us to salvage a good season out of our pieces. To do so, would require spending a lot more money on free agents (thus losing draft picks) or trading away what prospects this farm system might produce in the next year or so. The latter is very unlikely given that it would require either our entire first 10 rounds of this years draft or...nope just that, to land a player in a trade. We’re without a proven catching option for the next three years at least (but, in fairness I think Towles will come around), we have NO starting pitching and we’ll still have a walrus in left field making $20 million. This is what Steve Campbell doesn’t want us to forsake. Following Steve’s advice we’d hang onto Wandy Rodriguez, who’s inconsistent at times, but who’s talented left arm could net a bounty of prospects from a team like New York. He’d probably be up and arms about trading away Jose Valverde, who’s capabilities as a closer are both wasted by a team who’s bound to finish in the bottom half of their league and misused by a manager too dumb to know better, yet would command another beautiful bounty of young talent. If it were possible still, I’d trade Roy to any team that’d give us something of note. This is for two reasons:

1) We need the talent
2) It’d be a shame to let Roy’s career be forced to wither and die in the muck that will be the Houston Astros, when the man could chase a ring.

The Chronicle writers have, by in large, been obsessed with trading the trifecta of Roy, Carlos, and Lance, all of whom aren’t going anywhere. Maybe Roy, as he’s said he’d opt of his no trade clause if and only if he could get an extension to whomever he’s traded to. Carlos is fat, not hitting spectacularly, and owed $80 million over the next few years. This means that only the Yankees could possibly trade for him, as they’re the only team with money that I can think would possibly be stupid enough to trade for him. Lance, has said emphatically he’ll never leave the Astros and I believe that. So they’re all pretty much moot points. So I hope they stop. I also hope they stop using terrible logic to defend not trading anything we can to bring in young, viable talent. Next year, Miggy, Carlos, Lance, and Roy will command a combined $60 million, therefore we have to find a way to field a team in reasonable payroll parameters. Fans will turn away from this team if they're a 90 loss team no matter what the average age or payroll of the roster is.

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The Astros, They're So Hot Right Now

Incase my lame movie reference failed, it's Mugatu from Zoolander. Ok, Pop-culture references will be shelved now. For we college students, it's officially summer and the Astros have continued sizzle--big time. Lance is setting all sorts of records for his streak and thus far has exhibited no signs of cooling off, though a nagging leg injury could spell cooler temperatures for Lance. While Lance has been the main attraction with his bat, we should not overlook the fact that Lance has been, to date, the best defensive first baseman in all of MLB, with an outstanding RZR of .926. Yes, not only has Lance hit better than everyone in MLB, he's also played better defense than anyone at his position, including the much lauded Albert Pujols (the guy who won the gold glove last year). Right now, it appears that the NL MVP award is a two man race between Berkman and Utley, however, it is only mid-May, but an exciting prospect none-the-less.

However, while we could analyze Lance's bat and glove all day, the thing I want to focus on today, is the Astros as a team. We've done a few 10-Game Recaps, trying to analyze the changes in key stats that allow us to predict where the Astros fortunes might end up. These, however, have been pretty skin deep, with a focus on Offense and pitching only. So today, I'm going to attempt to break down the Astros as a Team, in lieu of doing another 10 Game Recap tomorrow, as they seem to have a very tepid response so far. I'm using stats available from the Hard Ball Times, an excellent site that provides a treasure trove of statistics, research, and analysis for free.

Courtesy of the Hardball Times' Team Reports, a look at the Astros record in terms of XW-L reveals that Astros are not a product of luck and their 22-17 record is in line with their runs scored/allowed. This good news, but looking at the Cubs and Cardinals record is a mixed bag of news. The Good News: The Cardinals are 1 game ahead of their XW-L, and in general seem to be due to come back to earth, and probably already are. That fact puts the Astros in 2nd place in the NL Central. However, the Bad News: the Cubs are 2 games below their XW-L, and should instead be at 25-13, making us 3.5 games behind the NL Central leader is hypothetical terms.

Breaking down the offense, we can see that the Astros are improving their OBP, but are still below league average with .321 mark, but by being 5th in the NL in slugging (.422) they've managed to post a league average OPS of .743, and keep the offense moving, simply by hitting the tar out of the baseball. While OBP is down, it is interesting to note that the Astros are 7th in the NL (and exactly league average) at P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) 3.82 P/PA. That's a pretty good rate and portends to either a higher BB% or is just a indication that they seem to have be able work the count, waiting for the right pitch. Either way, it assuages fears that our offense will collapse. Perhaps cautionary, the 'Stros have hit .292 with RISP and only .265 overall. Maybe they're exhibiting clutchness or it could be harbinger of a deflating offense unless the hits keep coming when we have men on.

The one thing that we have overlooked this year when talking about pitching, is how much this team is getting killed by the long ball. We have well above average K/9 (7.0), better than average BB/9 (3.3), and are league average in GB% (44%) and LD% (19%), we've even stranded more runners than any other pitching staff in the league with a LOB% of 77%, but when it comes to HR/8 we're tops with 1.3 HR/9. Correlated to that, we also lead the league in .SLG allowed with .453, well above the league average of .408. I'm at a loss to explain the HR's, because we have excellent rate stats that indicate strong control. I guess when we're making mistakes, we're just getting punished for them big time. I'd imagine that this has to be a fluke of some sort, and via mechanics being corrected or luck evening out, will drop. As such, given our strong rate stats, the staff appears to be much better than expected so far and due for some improvement in the ERA department.

Finally, and what I feel is the most important part of this team that has been overlooked, is their defense. The team owns a .847 RZR, which is second in the NL, second only to the Cardinals. It's been outstanding so far, especially given all the pre-season doubts about Tejada's glove, Bourn's maturity in the field, and Carlos' waist-line. Speaking of Lee and Bourn, consider this the fact that Astros own an above average Out-Field RZR in the NL with a .910, while having the second worst LFer (Lee, RZR of .804). The infield is tied for second in the NL with an RZR of .810, second again to the Cardinals. Over the off-season, we observed a few Astros-centric blogs, and one in particular, that chastised this teams defense over and over again. Their main fears were that Lance was a bad 1B, Tejada would look like Carlos Lee at SS, and that the hot corner would be devoid of anything you could begin to call adequate defense. Tejada has posted a .873 RZR (good for 3rd in the NL behind the injured Tulowitzki and the Brave’s Yunel Escobar), Lance, as we already mentioned is the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, and the hot corner has been average (Wigginton .711) to above average (Blum .756).

So here’s the quick and dirty of it: This team has been getting the hits that count, when they count, which so long as their plate discipline remains, should hold true. Our pitching has been very good with the exception of the long ball, which one has to assume that will even out of the season--leaving just solid pitching. Our gloves have been great; they’ve been exceptional in some areas, average in others, and just pitiful for Carlos Lee. This looks like a team that is capable of staying the course, they’re confident, capable of winning games in any way (just look at the Dodgers series) and if anything, have room for some improvement still. In sum, we look like a contender, which in the end is all we could hope for and more than a lot of us expected.

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Coop, You're Blowing It

At the risk of sounding like a whiny bitch, I'm going to criticize Coop's management decisions yet again. I'm justing to limit myself to the bottom of the ninth inning. As we rolled back from commercials, my stomach turned to see Dave Borkowski atop the mound and I thought "Jesus, does Coop just want to lose this game?" Brocail had just sailed through the 8th inning in which he had faced Duncan, Glaus, and Kennedy. Kennedy is somewhat a schlub, yes, but the other two are by no means easy outs, and Brocail just looked automatic. However, I guess Coop didn't mind that TLR was going for the win so much so, that he left his starter in to amass over 120 pitches this start to go the Complete Game. Coop just simply countered with sending out the 6th inning/mop-up guy, from last year...brilliant. As JD and Brownie rolled off Borkowski's stats and the camera's panned around, I kept waiting to hear/see a Carlos Lee defensive replacement. Lee was 8th up in the 10th if we made it and the game HAD to make it out of this inning for our bats to even factor back into the game. Alas, Coop chose to take out Brocail for a worse pitcher AND left Shamoo out there to try to keep the game tied.

Now some of you might be thinking, "Stephen, this is a little harsh" and maybe even, "Carlos Lee isn't that bad at LF." So I'll give you this, Carlos Lee is the second worse LFer in the National League. That's right, you just about cannot get worse than he is.

We all know what happened, but I'll give you a little visual courtesy of FanGraphs to drive the point home:


That Skip Schumaker single, which was preceded by some absolutely piss poor pitching by Dave Borkowski, allowed Carlos Lee's "defense" to lose the game for us. Look at the impact of that single. Think about that single to left that Carlos couldn't handle the hop on/get to at all because he's to BIG to be quick or agile enough to make the play. Then consider that Jose Cruz Jr, was just sitting on the bench. It's rare that management decisions win or lose games, my SB% article is a clear example of how manager's decisions can help or hurt their teams chances of winning, but the impact isn't a hugely significant amount. Yesterday, Cecil Cooper set this team up to lose, while TLR was doing everything he could to get his team win. Instead of being 1 over .500, we go into today's game a game under .500. Instead of having an opportunity to pull even with the Cardinals with the series sweep, we're simply trying to win the rubber game. All of it, chaps my ass. Something has got to be done about the train-wreck we have lumbering around in left-field. Evan and I will once again present our Modest Proposal as a possible solution.

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A Modest Proposal

Is it early in the season? Yes. Is it too early for a couple bloggers to start throwing out ideas about radical changes to the Astros? Never.

Love the player, hate the contract, or some combination of the two- regardless, Carlos Lee is here to stay. Here is the good:

Career Averages:

BA: .288 OBP: .341 Slugging: .499 HR: 30 RBI: 107 Runs: 96

That being said, Lee doesn't exactly inspire confidence with a glove in his hand. So far this season, he hasn't been credited with an error, but that doesn't begin to describe the extent of his relative ineptitude in the outfield. To give the Astros a better chance of playing winning baseball, the braintrust here at Dome Dogs makes outlandish proposal #1 for the year: put Carlos at first, and move Lance Berkman to LF.


An error only takes into account plays that reasonably should have been made by a particular defender. It was a statistic that was developed during the infancy of the sport, when gloves were hastily thrown together straps of leather that did little more than protect the player's hand. Players in today's game should be expected to be a bit more proficient in what they are able to do. Errors are handed out by the official score keeper, whose attention is primarily focused on the batter/pitcher match-up. It is a subjective call, which takes away from its legitimacy. Various statistics have been developed to put defensive performance into context, and while none of them are perfect, they are infinitely better than having only the error at the disposal of fans and statisticians alike.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR), is a defensive statistic that we're going to use to explain ourselves. Revised Zone Rating is the proportion of balls hit into a fielder's zone that he successfully converted into an out. Hardball Times The field of play is divided as such. Basically, a player is evaluated by looking at only those zones that an average fielder at that player's position fields at least 50% of balls successfully for outs. Doing this allows statisticians to split the playing field up between fielders and give each an amount of responsibility for those zones that they are supposed to cover. For our purposes, we'll take a look at what Left Fielders and First Baseman did in 2006 (the last year I could entire fielding statistics).

Left Field (responsible for Zones F through H on line drives and C through I on fly balls and popups) :


Balls in Zone: 3,825 Plays Made: 3,264 Zone Rating: 0.853

Lee's 2007 Rating: .827

First Base (responsible for covering zones V through X, the three zones closest to the right field line):

Balls in Zone: 2,779 Plays Made: 2,083 Zone Rating: 0.750

Berkman's 2007 Rating: .718

RF:
Balls in Zone: 3,941 Plays Made: 3,428 Zone Rating: 0.87

Berkman’s 2007 Rating: .884

We can see that neither player were at league average for their positions in 2007. However, Lance (though in limited playing time) was an above average RF, which is a more difficult defensive position . Further, he successfully converted 11 balls in play into outs that were outside of his zone (OOZ) in 289 innings in RF. Carlos only managed 36 in 1369 innings.

It's tough to hypothesize how Carlos would do at first. He probably has less of an area to cover, as far as zones are concerned, but would have to learn to pick throws out of the dirt, hold runners on, etc. Either way, we say it's worth a shot: we've already seen two Lee misplays on line drives lead to runs (once yesterday against Chicago, and once against San Diego). We are not trying to say that Lance would have the range of Carl Crawford, but he would be able to cleanly play those balls that are hit into his zones at a higher rate than Lee.

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New Year, New Line-up, New Format

So, we dropped the ball. We let school, internships, and life get in the way of the blog, but it wasn’t all our fault -- well not intentionally anyways. We didn’t think the format through, and we let that kill our passion for the blog and squandered the 200 readers we had a day.

We’re sorry.

So here is the game plan: This preview on opening day. One post after every ten games. A bonus end of the month round up. And an extended All-Star Break assessment. Look for the posts to be more than just some lame game summaries, instead these will be packed with insightful analysis bolstered with meaningful statistics.

So without ado, and because it is opening day, we present our season preview:

Look Out San Diego --

I feel dizzy. My head is spinnin’….how could yours not be after this past off-season and spring training? Regardless of whether we can keep ours, balance will be the name of the game for the 2008 Houston Astros. GM Ed Wade came, saw, and he dismantled. Who can blame him? Let’s lay out a few the pertinent facts of 2007, to see what faced Mr. Wade after Craig was carried off on the city’s collective shoulders:

Team Runs Scored: 723, 13th in the NL
Team OPS: .742, 11th in the NL

Team ERA: 4.68, 12th in the NL
Saves/Save Opportunities: 35/55 = 63.6%

Use any stat lines you’d like, the fact of the matter is that this team’s performance was abysmal in 2007. The Astros tried living off of their successes in 2004 and 2005 for too long, and in doing so, were forced to come to grips with a 73-89 record that marked just their second losing season in the past eleven.

Without re-hashing old mistakes or assigning blame, change was in order, and time was of the essence. Simply bringing in Carlos Lee and Woody Williams would not suffice this off-season. The man who built the Philadelphia Phillies team that made the dramatic (and concededly lucky) division title push, would be confronted with the challenge.

Starting Pitching

Determined not to overspend, and seeing no viable options in the trade market, the Astros head into 2008 with familiar faces, Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brandon Backe and Chris Sampson as starters:

Expect Roy to be his typical work-horse self and despite many people’s prognostications of declining K-rates, we argue that you expect over 7 K/9. Roy admittedly let the K’s go early last year with Adam Everett backing him and then turned it back on with his early, bone-crunching, exit. With this offense behind him, 20 wins with in his reach.

Wandy Rodriguez was one of the Unluckiest pitchers last year (luck is measured by his peripheral stats, like K/9, K/BB, BB/9, HR/9, etc.) with a PERA of 3.87 to his actuall 4.58. Look for those peripherals to hold and a much more balanced home/road Wandy to perform as a solid number two pitcher (though hopefully the oblique strain was an anomaly).

We all know and love Backe for his team spirit and tenacity on the mound. His quick recovery from Tommy John has been a blessing and his September starts hopefully carry over. Backe should be a better than average pitcher. Look for many quality starts.

Chris Sampson started off the 2007 Season with whispers of ROY, but elbow trouble go the best of him. A healthy Sampson should give us serviceable work if he can over come the weak left side of the infield this year.

Wait a minute…aren’t we missing a certain aged Houstonian?? As our luck would have it, no we are not. Woody Williams was released over the weekend. Ed Wade convinced Drayton to eat the remaining 6 million dollar plus left on his contract. Going 0-3, with an 11 plus ERA in the spring did not do much to help assuage fears that his 2007 season was a late career bump in the road.

Nevertheless, Shawn Chacon was signed to a reasonable one year contract and will be inserted as our fourth starter for the time being. Felipe Paulino will miss the first month of the season with a pinched nerve, but will surely be counted on to become part of this rotation before the season in over.

Starting pitching clearly will not be a strength in 2008. With a farm system that’s barren, and a trade market that was unwelcoming, not a whole lot could have been done in the area. We need only look north to the Texas Rangers to see what overpaying for free agent starters (Chan Ho Park, Vicente Padilla, Adam Eaton, Kevin Millwood) can do to a team’s ability to play winning baseball. Ed Wade took note of this and instead sought to make change where he could.

The Bullpen

Ed Wade is known in baseball circles for his propensity to sign/trade for relief pitchers with the abandon of a Carlos Lee going after the last post game shrimp scampi. My attempts at humor aside, that tradition was not broken in his first off season in charge of the Astros. As touched on earlier, the 2007 Astros simply could not nail down games when push came to shove. A 64 percent conversion percentage by your team’s set-up men (in our case Mr. Qualls and Mr. Wheeler) and closer (Mr. Lidge) translates into inconsistent and ultimately losing baseball. Couple that with our less than stellar starting pitching, and a recipe for disaster was apparent.

If it’s consistency you desire in a set up man, then Doug Brocail is just what the doctor ordered. With a career ERA of 3.99, Brocail will be asked to preserve leads heading into the 9th inning. After having a rejuvenating year in the San Diego bullpen last year, Brocail enjoyed the expansive Petco parameters to the tune of a 3.05 ERA, while giving up only 66 hits in 76 and 2/3 of a inning.

Chad Qualls was and will probably remain a very good late inning pitcher. That cannot be debated. However, of his 82 hits given up last year 10 were home runs (the same number given up in 2006). Strikingly inconsistent at times, Qualls has the stuff to be among the best relief pitchers in baseball. His rate stats are impeccable (K/9 of above 8, and a K/BB ratio of above 3.0), but his mental makeup leaves more to be desired. Brocail himself gave up 8 long balls last year, but only a combined 13 in the last four.

The loss of Qualls was mitigated by the fact that, well, he was traded with positional vagabond Chris Burke for Jose Valverde. The NL saves leader this past season, Valverde was a catalyst for the Diamondbacks run to the top of the Western Division. His 47 saves (in 54 opportunities) mean that he blew less saves in twice the amount of opportunities than Brad Lidge. He is under contract with the Astros for at least the next two seasons, a big plus.

The last major piece of bullpen change came about early in the off season. Josh “.650 OPS or bust” Anderson was shipped out to Atlanta for middle relief man Oscar Villareal. He was immediately signed to a multi-year contract, and will be used as primarily a seventh inning pitcher, but has experience setting up the closer as well. Regardless of what happens with Villareal, Ed Wade turned a middling (that’s too kind….below replacement level? Yea….that’s better) outfielder and came up with a reliever who can help solidify a part of this team that needs to be excellent in order to compete.

Relievers are not a dime a dozen, either in price or availability. There is nothing more frustrating than having a starter pitch well, only to have the lead given up by a guy who should be changing my coolant at Jiffy Lube. Brandon Backe, Chris Sampson and Shawn Chacon will not be expected or needed to pitch deeper into games than they are able to, either. The old baseball adage about making the game shorter with your bullpen is a proven method to winning, and hopefully it can be duplicated this season.
Geoff Geary (who came over in the Lidge trade), Dave Borkowski and Wesley Wright (Rule V draftee) have not been mentioned, but combine those three with the three new editions, and this bullpen should offer the flexibility and consistency that the team makeup demands in order to be a respectable 2008 squad.

What to expect at the plate

Like the bullpen, our everyday lineup has seen a near complete overhaul from 2007. Only Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee remain from last season’s opening day lineup. Fan favorites Luke Scott and Mike Lamb are no longer with the team. Opposing pitcher favorites Adam Everett (free agency), and Brad Ausmus (now a reserve) are either no longer with the team or can only hurt the offense in a limited capacity. Top to bottom, things should look like this:

1) Homegrown outfielder Michael Bourn is set to take his career .340 OBP to the top of the lineup to serve as the main catalyst for the offense. After being a reserve/defensive replacement in Philadelphia, Bourn is here to get on base for the sluggers behind him. He will be able to use his speed (17 stolen bases in 18 chances in 2007) to put pressure on opposing pitchers as well. I am not a tremendous fan of the stolen base, but, with percentages like his, this is a high reward, low risk situation that is rarely seen in baseball. Although a majority of steals occurred while not being held on at first in late game scenarios, Bourn still stands to steal upwards of 40 bases this year. Additionally, he is fine defensive outfielder from most accounts, which is good, considering our leftfielder will never be confused with Barry Bonds circa 1993. Bottom line with this guy is that he’s 25, under our control for years to come and will only improve as he gets more experience. An OPS of around .720 is not out of the question. After two years of struggling to get men on base at the top of our lineup, Bourn will seek to prove himself ready and able.

2) Due to circumstances beyond his control, presumptive number two hitter Kazuo Matsui will miss at least the first two weeks of the season after surgery for…anal fissures? What? Did “The Onion” come up with this? Well, as it stands, Kazzy will be out for the count, letting Hunter Pence man the two spot. Arguably the lone on the field bright spot the Astros had last year, Pence smashed Astro rookie records for slugging percentage and extra base hits. He has everything lined up nicely for himself to surpass those numbers. As he begins his first full season as a major leaguer, Pence still has much to learn about how to be a big league hitter. This shouldn’t stop him from being a 25 HR/25 SB man. Couple that with 80-85 Runs and RBI, and Hunter stands as an unquestionable star in the making. Projected to max out in the OPS range of .890 in the next four to five years, his is a horse that this organization will hitch their wagon to for years to come.

3) Ahhh, a familiar face. After all, is that what we as Astros fans like? Familiarity? Uncle Drayton (to borrow a phrase of Lisa’s) sure does. And from what we’ve learned this off-season, number three hitter Lance Berkman does as well. He let it be known that he didn’t like having to acclimate himself to a new clubhouse. While Morgan Ensberg may have been a great gin rummy player, the fact remains that Lance’s new teammates in the lineup are improvements over the old stalwarts. I won’t go so far as to say that they will help “protect” him (a concept that contrary to Joe Morgan’s assertions, does not exist), but he should have more chances to knock in runs. Lance cames off the most disappointing 30/100 season in recent memory. Unless it takes him two months to collect more than two doubles again this year, Lance will surpass his .880 OPS and be the super star performer that he has been in years past. An on base machine, Lance still has four good years left in him. Also, we wouldn’t have thought so after watching him flail about on Tal’s Hill in the past, but Lance is an above average defensive player. With fears of diminished range on the left side of the infield, Lance’s unsung talents at first base may be among his most important.

4) Another familiar face, Carlos Lee is slated to bat cleanup for this year’s squad. Coming off another solid, if not spectacular year, Lee led the 2007 team in RBI, total plate appearances and hits. It is difficult to justify a 6 yr/$100 million dollar deal, but Lee did as much to approach that value as he could, given his career statistics. We all know the schtick against him: he is a poor (I’m being generous) defensive outfielder who also drew the ire of Craig Biggio after not always hustling to first base after hitting assumed ground ball outs. This is the man who will also see the largest regression in the next few years, as his “big man” skills will diminish more quickly than a more athletic player. So, yes, lambaste Drayton for overpaying for offense. But in the overall scheme of this team, like it or not, is to win now. I’m admittedly trying to shine the best light on Carlos, but as it stands, anything can and has happened. *(see: Cardinals, The St. Louis. 2006)

5) How do you think the conversation went down? Maybe something like this:

The Scene: December 13th, 2007. A spacious office on Crawford Street, Houston, Texas. A content middle aged man surfs the internet while chatting on his cell phone. In walks an older associate with a grim look on his face.

Tal Smith: Hey, Ed. D’you get a chance to look at the Mitchell Report yet?

Ed Wade: Not yet. I haven’t done much yet today. After making the trade for Miggy yesterday, I’m pretty tuckered out.

T.S.: Yea speaking of Miguel…that’s sorta what I came in here for. You may want to check out the report.

E.W.: All right, all right. (Smith stands in the doorway as Wade sifts through the initial pages of the document. An exasperated look comes upon Wade’s face as he sees Miguel Tejada’s name mentioned more than forty times.)

E.W.: Do you remember where I put the receipt?

So, it may not have gone exactly like that, but the nature of the trade for SS Miguel Tejada had an odd element of timing to it. Tejada was traded for on December 12th, and was named the following day in the release of the Mitchell Report. Wade claims to have had no idea about the imminence of his outing, but no baseball fan worth his salt can truly believe him in this regard. As far back as 2003 when Rafael Palmiero attached his name to steroids, Tejada has been under a cloud of suspicion.

On the field, Tejada will be expected to improve on the Astros offense from the SS position (a house plant has a shot to nail this requirement down) and play……well, just play defense. A still deadly pull hitter, the winner of the 2004 All Star Home Run Derby should again be able to find his stroke to the tune of a 25 HR season. On the books for the next years at nearly twenty million per, Mr. Tejada has much to prove. Adam Everett was a fan favorite. He was squeaky clean off the field, and a smooth defensive player on it. The fact that he couldn’t sniff a .700 OPS to save his life didn’t seem to matter. Perhaps his ineptitude was overshadowed by that of Brad Ausmus. Regardless, Miguel Tejada is still a thumper extraordinaire. We should be able to get another two near All Star caliber years out of him, and then send him on his way.

6) Perhaps the least sexy Astros positional player, Ty Wigginton will begin 2008 as the Astros everyday third sacker. Gone are the days of the double headed attack of Mike Lamb and Morgan Ensberg. Lamb has moved on to greener pastures on the Astroturf of Minnesota, and Mo is dancing on the line between Yankee reserve and farmhand. Wigginton is a professional hitter, plain and simple. A man who’s splits (.287 against RHP and .269 against LHP) are much more reasonable than either of the aforementioned Astros, Wigginton will have the opportunity to play nearly everyday. Unspectacular yet efficient, a .800 plus OPS will be a treat from either the six or seven hole. Another pull hitter, the folks in the Crawford Boxes should expect more Landry’s gift cards courtesy of Ty.

7) A breath of fresh air. The exuberance of youth. Whatever phrase you like, J.R. Towles is embodies that much and more. A September call up in 2007, Towles impressed with an 8 RBI performance against the Cardinals, while showing poise in his game calling. He still has a lot of room for growth defensively, but with Officer Ausmus showing him the ropes, he couldn’t have a better teacher. When it comes to hitting, it’s Ausmus who should have the notebook out. Towles has the stroke of a doubles hitter who should be able to find the gaps and use his superlative speed to take the extra base. Possibly the only catcher outside of Chavez Ravine who can hit double digit homers and swipe double digit bases, J.R.’s growth will be among the most important for the Astros in 2008. How he learns to handle the pitching staff, his ability to get on base at the bottom of the lineup and the leadership qualities he gleans from the veterans in front of him will be paramount in the future successes of this club. An OPS of .760 this year, with many years of over .800 in his future, Mr. Towles stands ready to take up the challenges of being a starting catcher in the bigs

8) We all know the story at second base. A man who needs no introduction. A standout at Seton Hall Unive…Sorry. Had to catch myself there. Taking the place of future Cooperstowner Craig Biggio are two familiar faces (Mark Loretta and Geoff Blum) and the aforementioned free agent addition Kazuo Matsui. Loretta and Blum are similar players both defensively (limited range) and offensively (will struggle to get on base). However much they may struggle to get on, it is very likely they will do so with greater propensity than Kaz Matsui. Kaz, he of the hyper-inflated home/road split, parlayed an excellent second half of 2007 into a big time free agent contract. Ed, I’ve defended you against those who have doubted you all off-season long as intelligent, but I cannot do so here. This was a move to attach the Astros to a bit of the magic that surrounded the Colorado Rockies’ run to the NL pennant. A simple search of his home batting average last season (.330) and road counterpart (.249) would indicate that the Coors Field affect is in full play with Kazzy. That being said, even Matt Holiday had a .780 OPS away from the park with the pine trees. Regardless, he’s here and he’s our second baseman. Matsui is a package that offers plus speed on the base-paths and range defensively. However, it’s difficult to deny the fact that Ed Wade overestimated his abilities, and this team will have to bite the financial bullet for this overestimation.

As for our reserves, Spring Training is basically the showcase for who will be a team’s bench contributors. Jose Cruz, Jr., Darrin Erstad and Brad Ausmus will be front and center in this regard. Cruz and Ausmus hit well in the Spring, and Erstad has a World Series victory to his credit.

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