Well, I guess the reverberations of a CC Sabathia start in Wisconsin made their way down to Chicago yesterday afternoon. The Cubs landed the oft injured, but very talented Rich Harden, along with relief pitcher Chad Gaudin for a bevy of young players- P Sean Gallagher, IF/OF Eric Patterson, OF Matt Murton and minor league catcher Josh Donaldson. On the outside, this may look like a pretty straightforward move by the Cubs to shore up their rotation in light of the move Milwaukee made on Monday. In the end, perhaps Harden can stay healthy and help pitch the Cubs to the division title and then on to success in the post season. I don’t doubt that the Cubs have what it takes to win the NL Central, but I do not think Rich Harden will be the catalyst for the Cubs in the second half. Let’s throw this out there for starters: Harden has made eleven consecutive starts for the first time since 2005. Not a good start for optimism in Chicago, but I disdain the Cubs, so I’ll keep going. Second, for a guy who usually hovers in the 93-95 MPH range on his fastball, Harden was consistently throwing only in the high 80’s in his last start. Cause for concern, methinks.
On some level, I can respect a team that throws caution to the wind and just goes for it. The Cubs haven’t won a pennant since 1908, and this is possibly the best chance they’ve had in decades to make the World Series. The trade for Harden and Gaudin may appear to be just what the Cubs needed, but I wouldn’t go so far as to agree. These are two nice pieces that are being added to an already talented club. Just on the pitching side of things, the Cubs rank fifth in K/BB in the NL, fourth in K/9, third in ERA and lead the NL in BAA. Source. Offensively, the Cubs lead the NL in runs by 25 over the next closest club, and are OPS’ing at an impressive clip of .805. Source. Take their 482 runs scored and compare that to their 376 runs allowed, and they are the only team in baseball to have a run differential of more than 100. Which leads me to this conclusion: before either Rich Harden or Chad Gaudin can throw a pitch for the Chicago Cubs, they may in fact be the best team in baseball. Sure, I’m overlooking a lot that goes into measuring how good a team is, but run differential is usually a good indicator of a team’s record, and record is usually a good indicator of how good a team is. In getting these two pitchers, the Cubs have given up two toolsy outfielders, a pitcher who has been asked for by many GM’s in past trade negotiations with Chicago, and a minor league catcher with some pop. From Oakland’s perspective, Billy Beane can pair his new arrivals with an already youthful group headlined by Ryan Sweeney and Carlos Gonzalez. I’d be worried too, if I were Chicago about why the A’s would be so quick to deal Rich Harden when he’s “healthy” and the team is still in the hunt for a postseason birth. I understand striking while the iron is hot, but usually as teams approach the trade deadline, they become more and more anxious to make moves, which usually sweetens the deal for a potential seller. Billy Beane of all people knows this, which is why his early sale of his best trading chip should cause Cubs fans to think twice before giving this trade their seal of approval.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Beane strikes again
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
The NL Central Gets Cut Throat or Why I love Billy Beane
The Chicago Cubs have just acquired Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. This is just a great deal -- for the A's, NOT the Cubs -- and is the exact kind of deal that the Houston Astros should be figuring out how to make with say...Wandy Rodriguez and Jose Valverde.
I honestly don't know how Billy Beane does this year after year, but he just cashed in big time. Harden is an oft injured, but tantalizing when healthy ticking time bomb. The man is already inching periously close to the deal, per this snippet from the A's website:
Harden did not. His truncated evening ended with his most electric moment of the night, striking out Guerrero with runners at first and second with two outs in the fifth, but his final line was pretty ho-hum by his lofty standards: five hits and a walk with five strikeouts. He never topped 93 mph on the radar gun and was far more frequently checking in at 87-89.
So he's got dead arm and most likely a shoulder problem to underlying/because of it. Gaudin is at best a good seventh inning guy or number five pitcher. Meanwhile, Beane gets one of the best young pitching prospects in baseball, plus a big catching prospect and two young, formerly very hyped, OF. Brilliant. Gallagher is 22 and one of the most talked about pitching prospect this offseason because he was the sticking point for both the O's and the Cubs in the Brian Roberts deal. I salivate for savvy management like this and so should you. Maybe some day we'll be blessed with such genius, but with Drayton McLane at the helm I won't hold my breath.
