This may be an unpopular topic. Team owners may cringe, old timers may scoff and children may run and hide, but someone has to write about it. Barry Bonds is out there waiting for a job. Not in the way that a 16 year old on summer vacaction looks for one- by lazily climbing out of bed and waiting for one to land in his lap while he watches Scrubs. Barry and his agent, Jeff Borris, have made it well known that he would like to play Major League Baseball again. Here's the catch though: despite being the All Time Homerun King (readers at home can add the optional * if you insist), Bonds has drawn less interest than a player such as Cliff Floyd. Now, nothing against Cliff- he has a World Series ring (Florida, 1997), and has compiled a nice career on a couple teams that have done some damage in the postseason. As much as I am continually delighted at the success of the Tampa Bay Rays, their adding of Floyd for the all important role of "Veteran Leader" seems to be the safest move they could have made. I mean, why alienate a growing fan base by bringing on one of the most polarizing figures of our time, sports or non sports? Winning, that's why. Barry Bonds, when he has even a little bit of talent around him, helps his team win games. The folks out in San Francisco may be happy that their clubhouse doesn't have Barry's personal recliner, his two lockers or the incessant media attention and inherent negativity that surrounds this man, but the fact of the matter is that he can play. Did it last year. Check it out. Sure, he's 43 and comes with the aforementioned baggage. Talent wins though. It has and will always give a team a better shot at winning. Veteran presence, a great clubhouse atmosphere, a bubbly, candid team full of good quotes and laughs may make you feel good about going out the park, but when it comes down to it, I want victories. An .897 PECOTA projected OPS from your DH would help in this regard.
That's all well and good though. The Rays are leading the AL East, and probably don't regret not having Barry Bonds on their team. Another division leader should though. The Arizona Diamondbacks are scuffling. 19-8 in April, 25-38 since then. The NL West has been disastrously bad. To the point, only the L.A. Dodgers have a winning record against another division ( 17-14 against the NL Central). Simply put, the D-Backs should have been able to run away and hide. This hasn't happened, and now their GM, Josh Byrnes, has apparently tossed Bonds' name into the ring for consideration to possibly replace an ailing (both physically and performance-wise) Eric Byrnes. Brynes is definitely one of those "clubhouse guys" who somehow managed to pull a career year out of thin air at age 31. If warning signs weren't all over this guy before that, his breakout season was barely above par, as he posted an OPS+ of 104. Solid year for sure, but probably doesn't justify the big contract he signed to re-up with the D-Backs in the offseason. This year, he's posted a .641 OPS, while being able to steal only 4 bases in 8 attempts. His .877% steal success rate in 2007 justified the risk of stealing, but obviously 4/8 won't cut it. He has a torn hamstring which probably has hampered his running game, which decreases his value tremendously. It's a wonder to me then, that it's taken the Diamondbacks this long to even consider Barry. Brynes' 10th percentile PECOTA prediction (the lowest rung on their prediction scale) had Byrnes at a .620 OPS, and a .225 BA. His Wins Above Replacement Level (WARP) is a predictably low 1.0. (Source: Baseball Prospectus). Bonds' 10th percentile WARP: 1.9. (Source: Baseball Prospectus). Even if Bonds performs as poorly as Byrnes, he still adds to the team win total. Barry has already said he will play for less than peanuts.All I can say is, forget public perception, play to win, and sign Barry. No matter what your Grandma thinks.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Enough is enough
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Indicted (Again) and a craaaazzzzy idea
Barry Bonds is still in trouble, the same trouble he's been in since he was indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges nearly six months ago. Most people (myself included) didn't realize that a Federal Judge for the Northern District of California ordered the prosecution to re-write the flawed indictment in late February. The new indictment charges the same offenses as the original: 14 charges of perjury and one for obstruction of justice. The fourteen perjury counts are for each time Bonds supposedly lied while under oath.
The defense has maintained that the indictments against Bonds have been too vague. To this point, the judge has ordered that they be revised, and made more specific, honing in more on what Bonds did that was illegal, noting exact instances both in and out of the courtroom. From the get go, prosecutors faced the problem of trying to prove that The HomeRun King knowingly lied under oath. It would be relativley simple for the defense to disprove, and likewise difficult for the prosecution to prove, the culpable mental state. A " mistake of fact defense is a common and effective means to absolve a defendant of wrongdoing. Perhaps Barry didn't know the contents of what he was injecting/injesting at the time? Then he didn't know that he was lying to prosecutors while under oath. If he didn't, the defense is en vouge, and the perjury charges have no legs.
The new indictment doesn't stand to increase or decrease the amount of prison time that Bonds stands to serve, which is thought to be 30 months. All it really does is give the jury new ways to find him guilty, since the previous indictment is now divided up moreso. He will go to trial, but now that will be delayed.
Actual Baseball Article
After watching Bradndon Backe give up three runs in the first inning last night, I couldn't help but wonder how long our rotation could continue to allow the team to stay in/win ballgames. Roy O is coming around, Chacon has been a pleasant surprise, but Sampson and Moehler cannot be expected to continue to pitch as they did last weekend in Los Angeles. Brandon Backe though, has been perhaps the biggest dissapointment. Sure, he gave us a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER), but a look at his FIP , shows that he has been almost entirely responsible for his less than satisfactory performance thus far. His GDP (ground ball percentage) is the lowest on the team, that's counting Roy who's given up a team high nine home runs already this year. Brandon just does not have the oomph on his fastball to get it past major league hitters when it is not located perfectly.
What to do? Well, the four man rotation , is the impetus for our idea. The idea is basically to take out the fifth starter, put the four remaining starters on a strict pitch count, and watch as your team gives up less runs. That's a perfect world scenario. What could work for a team that has a pretty solid bullpen, which ridiculously high home run rates aside, we believe the Astros have. Ed Wade prides himself on constructing effective, if not slightly overpaid relief corps. Why not have Coop and pitching coach Dewey Robinson figure out a way to manipulate the bullpen to have certain guys pitch in the fifth spot in the rotation? It would have to fluctuate, of course, given the prior days results and necessities, but doing this would eliminate a spot in the rotation for a starter who will most likely struggle to a certain extent, while giving the bullpen work on a specific day. It would mean having a limited bullpen on some days of the week, but Roy, Wandy (when healthy) and Shawn have shown themselves capable of pitching deep into ballgames.
As the season goes on, and if the team stays in the hunt those games where our fifth starter pitches mean just as much as those when Roy takes the mound. The team carries an extra reliever for a reason. Dave Borkowski was a starter in the minor leagues, and has thrown more than four innings five times in 2006 and 2007. Brian Moehler is comfortable coming out of the bullpen or starting, and Oscar Villareal can pitch multiple innings as well. Maybe it wouldn't work, but come August, the team may be willing to try anything to gain an edge.
