HALF WAY!!

Back in the day, when I fancied myself a pseudo athlete (I ran track and cross country and to this day, I insist they're not sports), I remember that Matt Munoz, the best runner on the team, would scream, "HALF WAY!!" in the middle of long-runs and intervals. While I don't know for sure why exactly he did it, it usually inspired two emotions in me: fear or determination. Whether it was fear or determination depended on how I was doing at that point in the run/workout.

So, the Astros are, "HALF WAY!!" plus one, through their 2008 season. My question is, should this inspire fear or determination in us? Let's take stock of our present and then disect the past, to discuss the future.

Yesterday afternoon, we finished off our third straight series win over the AL. Two series victories over the top team in the AL East is a feat that seemed impossible as recently as two weeks ago when the team was getting swept out of Baltimore. However incredible the last week has been, the fact is that the Astros have been a disappointment for 50% of the 2008 season. A 39-43 disappointment, to be exact. What follows is a break down of some key statistics through the first 82 games to analyze how we’ve gotten to where we are. Hopefully, these will paint a picture of what we might expect for the next 80 games we play.

Here's the quick and dirty of where we rank with our stats in terms of the rest of the National League with our offense:

Tied for 5th in BA
15 (Second to Last) in OBP
9th in OPS

Next, a chart of how our hitters (pitchers have been excluded) have performed at the plate through the first 81:



The last time we took a meaningful look at the Astros numbers at the team level, was May 13th. We were tearing it up, and everyone in baseball loved us. I urged for cautious optimism, because the only aspect offensively that we were doing exceptionally well at was hitting .292 with men in scoring position. As you can see, we're now actually hitting worse, on average, with men in scoring position then we are overall. Which goes a long way to explain our absymal month of June. Our ISO has also totally fallen off, indicating that our bats just are not generating the power that they once were. A 19% line drive percentage coupled with a BABIP below .300 should inspire some optimism for an increase in offensive production for the second half. Carlos Lee in particular has a rather low BABIP, but a respectable 18.2% LDP, we're begining to see his BABIP fall in line with his LD% even, and with the revamped line-up it should help us produce more than the 2 or 3 runs a game we did for most of June. The absurdly low OBP is still troubling. As long as it stay's low, we'll have to rely on hitting well in with men in scoring position, because our opportunities to produce runs will be fleating. All in all, things should get better in the offensive department, but it won't be anything to write home about.


To the pitching:



What should jump off the stat sheet is the pitching staff's ridiculous HR/RB ratio. A majority of Astros pitchers have a tendency to induce a great deal of fly balls (probably wasn't the ideal rotation to create for MMP), but when fifteen percent of them are leaving the yard, you have to just shake your head. There are two ways to look at this development. While it's not as if their BABIP is just outlandishly high, a LD% of 20% is startling to see, especially when it's coupled with our HR/FB. Opposing hitters are getting in some good swings, which is most likely apparent to anyone who follows the Astros. More important than the HR's perhaps, are the line drives, which have a greater chance of going for extra bases than do ground balls or fly balls, thus putting runners in scoring position with relative frequency. However, and oddly enough, the Astros staff has the second best LOB% at 74%. Given that we should see the LD% drop down a tick and the FB stay in the yard more often as well, there's room for the hope that our pitching should improve a pretty good deal in the second half. This definitely surprised me.

As we noted last time, the defense has been phenomenal this year, and certainly goes a long way in explaining why our pitchers' LOB% is so good. We are currently 3rd RZR with an .852; surprisingly (to me at least) 2nd in infield RZR with an .815. If the defense holds up it's in the of the bargain, and the LD% and HR/FB rate of our pitchers levels off, the result should be some pretty well pitched games.

Taking stock of our first 81 games has lead to these insights:

1.) Our offense will struggle to consistently put runs on the board because they're just not getting on base frequently enough, but with a big-bat in Carlos Lee due for a resurgence, we should do better than we have in June. Just don't expect a repeat of May by any stretch.

2.) Though on pace to set all kinds of records with our HR's allowed, our pitching staff has been one of the best at stranding their base runners. With the possibility that LD's will decrease ever so slightly and the expectation that HR/FB should diminish a significant amount, we should see a lot fewer runs posted by our oppents. Especially, given that...

3.) We have a great defense, especially in the in-field and CF and RF too, backing our hurlers.

So, "HALF-WAY," shouldn't inspire fear in us going further in terms of our ability to win some more ball games. However, it also shouldn't necessarily inspire determination or an excess of optimism going foward. We've dug ourselves a large hole to climb out of in the NL Central and the Wild Card race. While this franchise has over come some long odds, we don't seem to be made of the caliber of stuff that overcame them in 2005. That we should do better moving forward does inspire fear in me, because it will probably convince Drayton McLane to stay the course with this team -- or worse, try to acquire some missing piece. We look like a team that might be able to put up a good fight to reach .500, but as fans we have to ask ourselves, is that what we want? Is obtaining a respectable, but hardly noteworthy, amount of wins worth trying to build for a successful, stable future? I say, not at all.

***Note: Evan contributed a significant amount to this, won't be credited in the by-line, but deserves equal share of either the props or criticism (well maybe just the criticism) too.***

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Searching for Intelligence -- Still

"Lucky for us, McLane has plenty of money, and money will go a long way toward fixing the problem.

He needs two free-agent starting pitchers. It doesn't sound like much if you say it really fast.

Those two pitchers could add $30 million to the payroll, could push the Astros into the $120 million range.”

There must be something in the water that resides in the home-team club house at MMP, because I read the above, and shot water through my nose -- I’m glad my laptop is still intact. Richard Justice apparently is fully convinced of the following:

1.) That Drayton McLane will do expand pay roll by $25 million in order to net two more starting pitchers. Inching himself perilously close to luxury taxes and also infuriating his best-bud, Bud Selig.

2.) That while increasing payroll at the major league level by 26%, he’ll also pump more money into the farm system; both sign talent and provide them with the instructors and staff to excel.

I’m sure you understand my complete shock now. Justice, asserts that we can fix the 2009 season from the snare of 90 losses, by bringing on board Ben Sheets and one of either Jon Garland or Braden Looper. Looper, who is currently recapturing his youth, will by 35 years of age, and probably will try to ride this season’s resurgence into an inflated number of dollar signs or years on his contract. Even if Drayton were feeling philanthropic to the denizens who fill his ball-park, I would hope he and Ed Wade would shy away from a deal that is only slightly less insane than Woody Williams. So I’ll scratch that off the list. This leaves the team seeking Ben Sheets and Jon Garland. Sheets would probably get along just peachy with Roy and Lance, but Garland probably remembers being low-balled by the Astros two years ago. Also, when was the last time you can remember a team bringing in two highly sought after FA agent pitchers in the same off-season (well, throw out Andy and Roger, because that came down to home town ties)? So it’s incredibly unlikely that such a plan would come off success for, or be desirable. The last point, Justice is willing to concede:

“This course has its price. Signing premier free agents will cost the Astros the draft choices they need.

But there's no perfect solution for a franchise that's broken in so many areas.

It's just one way out. Maybe the best way” (emphasis added).

The best way? The Astros should hedge their bets by not unloading what proven talent they can for young prospects on the chance that we might steal two coveted, scarce resources from the free agent market? Even if Justice’s plan were to succeed, as he concedes, we’d lose out on another year’s worth of top-talent in the draft. We can’t spend our way back into contention. Two free agent pitchers are not going to just land on our door-steps and take us to the World Series. We’d probably be a strong contender in the NL Central, but the Cubs are a team primed to run away with the division for the next few years; with several talented, home grown arms who are waiting in their wings. Further, it’s asinine to believe that Drayton will spend lavishly on both the major and minor league level. This is a team that has been mismanaged for several years now. There are no short-term solutions to long-term issues. Hopefully Drayton McLane will change his mind about how to approach his teams future before July, 31. Otherwise, it’ll be a long five to ten years.

Wholly unrelated, but still totally inspiring:
Apparently, this dude has amassed over 3,000 balls from games. My age six through twelve year old self just at it's heart out.

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The Trickle Down Effect of Incompetence

As we enter into the series with the Red Sox this weekend, we should first pause to enjoy the fact that Drayton Mclane lobbied his crony Bud Selig very hard to have us get schlacked for three games so he could sell double-priced tickets. Good call. We should also note the disparity between the Boston Red Sox and our own organization. Just look at the pitching staff they have on the major league level and then if you want to depress yourself further, look at what their minor league players are doing at AA and AAA. In the same off-season in which we spent $100 million for Carlos Lee, the Red Sox spent $100 million for Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Red Sox are a team that knows how to assemble a winning baseball team. Their owner has deferred to some of the smartest minds in baseball to ensure this commitment is realized. Drayton McLane has no concept of how to field a winning team, yet meddles in just about every aspect of the baseball operations; from encouraging us to sign ludicrous contracts with players who won’t live up to the dollar signs; refusing to know when to fold them and unload veterans for young talent at the deadline two years in a row; and refusing to sign the scarce amount of young talent we’ve been able to draft for the last few years. So watch the Red Sox this weekend and drool over what a well run organization looks like.

This trend of undervaluing the strongest correlation to winning baseball games, preventing runs from scoring, pervades not just ownership, but management as well. Journalists apparently also undervalue it. Here’s a quote from Richard Justice this morning:

"If [Cecil Cooper] has a problem, it probably is with the pitching staff... His challenge may be in dealing with pitchers, with explaining why he's doing things, with doing as much listening as talking.”

The quote comes from a column debunking an alleged toxic atmosphere in the Astros’ club house, but if Cooper is failing to communicate effectively or at all with the pitching staff (which the article suggests in some parts) then how is it not toxic? For Justice not to lambast Cooper for failings that he is seeing and hearing in the clubhouse is infuriating.

Let’s break down what a baseball game is. There are 8 position players, who hit and if it’s the AL, there is one fat dude who sits on the bench and swings the bat for the pitcher. So each hitter accounts for 1/9 of offense, which occurs every 1/2 inning, meaning that each hitter accounts for 1/18 of the game. The pitcher, who is responsible for preventing runs from scoring by getting the batter out, preferably striking him out, or making the job of the defenders behind as easy as possible by creating “bad swings” accounts for the other 1/2 of the game. While each defender clearly has a role to play in run prevention it’s not near as much as the pitchers. If Cecil Cooper is failing his team by not properly communicating crucial information to his pitching staff, he’s doing a great disservice to his team. We’ve already chronicled how bad he is at managing an offense to produce runs, but if he’s botching his pitching staff’s mental approach to the game, then he needs to go, because he’s doing an unacceptable job.

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MLBAM Get's Super Fancy

Those of you have been reading the blog for a little while are probably somewhat familiar with MLBAM's pitch/fx system. It's what we, and serveral other's, have been using to get better insight into the art that is pitching. We've pretty much just used to try and explain Roy's abberationally high HR/FB rate most recently, but there is an absolutely gold mind of insight and analysis that is emanating from this data. Most Astros fans should now be familiar with it because JD and Brownie have been looking at close calls on "Pitch Tracker" (which is just a pared down version of the full pitch/fx data) all season long.

While at school, Evan and I were forced to watch several games on MLB's Gameday application, which aside from the lag, was a great way to keep up with the game "live". I sometimes keep Gameday open just to "see" the pitches better while I watch it on TV and to that effect, I was thrilled to see this announcement. Gameday now offers full 3-D modeling of each and every pitch. If you've every wondered just how filthy a Johan Santana change-up, you can easily see that now, from any angle you desire. It looks pretty awesome and I'm looking forward to playing around with it during tonight's rubber game.

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What's going ON?

I’ve sort of been at a loss for new articles to write. Stephen and I attempt to keep things as relevant as possible on here, and hopefully you all like the results. Obviously, Shawn Chacon is the biggest headline of the day. From everything I’ve read, Ed Wade is a man who is honest and forthright with his players, and I can only assume that he and Cecil Cooper were going to try and handle this situation as professionally as possible. Chacon lost his spot in the rotation, and since this didn’t sit well with the multiple Cy-Young winner and two time MVP, the right hander asked to be traded. (Edit: Chacon actually has had a rather undistinguished career, despite his acting like he a pitcher who deserves more respect). After hearing about this, it dawned on me, not like stray sunlight peeking through the clouds during a rainstorm, but rather like stale, fluorescent lighting in a K-Mart- this is actually news concerning the Houston Astros. An organization that has been among the most successful and well run of the past fifteen years has hit a speed bump. An extended, plateau like speed bump, but it’s caused the breaks to be applied nonetheless.

Maybe, just maybe, it’s not a bad thing. Perhaps Drayton McLane will look around at his organization and begin to take an objective inventory of his resources. He wasn't the one assaulted, but this could in fact be a wake up call that spurs dialogue between Wade and McLane as to future plans. First round draft pick Jason Castro is already involved with negotiations with the club, and insiders are optimistic that he will be signed and ready to start his professional career soon. This is a positive step for a team that was not able to do much of anything in the player development front in the past season. A sense of entitlement has effectively destroyed the career of Shawn Chacon.

The Astros would be wise to look at Chacon's actions and realize that they too have suffered from an organizational wide sense of entitlement. Resting on back to back post season appearances in 2004 and 2005 led the team to two non descript seasons, and 2008 is quickly succumbing to the same fate. An overhaul in philosophy is what is needed, as the Astros' minor league affiliates have ceased producing the talent necessary for a team to compete in the luxury tax era of efficient baseball spending. There can be a happy medium- spending money wisely on free agents who offer services that younger players cannot, and promoting a healthy minor league system through prudent financial and personnel decisions. One step would be to promote those with the most expansive knowledge of baseball to manage at the lowest levels. Too often coaches and managers are selected form a restricted pool, their credential being centered around having "played the game". Rather, a hybrid of statistical based analysis with the experience of scouts and long time baseball professionals offer the best of both worlds in player development. To me, there is no other option for success in Major League Baseball.

The Yankees can spend more than anyone, but the rules have been shifted against them to the point where even George Steinbrenner isn't so apt to open his checkbook for any free agent that expresses interest. Luxury taxes, revenue sharing and the like all work against those teams that have high payrolls. The Astros do not spend near what the upper echelon clubs do, but they can learn from the experiences of other teams. Spending wisely on veteran free agents on the major league level, and promoting a minor league system that functions in order to sign, develop and promote young talent does not necessarily guarantee success, but it does create a synergy with which success is more likely.

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Pretty Sweet Hat, Totally Excellent Cause

While I doubt this will have any real effect given our relatively low readership levels to MLB.com, but I feel compelled none this less.

This is a pretty sweet hat



This is a totally excellent cause.

It's a pretty simple deal. We could debate the socio-political merits of this thing, but I don't think they really apply to this cause. I hate Bud Selig, but I'll give him credit on doing something pretty good here.

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Astros' Fire Sale 2008

A few days late and a few dollars short (does it work like that?), but it’s better than nothing. Saturday morning, I opened the Chronicle to find Steve Campbell’s piece gracing the bottom of the Sports section’s front page. I read the title, "Forsaking all to serve youth an empty answer" and I actually though it looked interesting and looked forward to it, foolishly.

I’ll start this off with a little quote from the article. It should be sufficient to demonstrate that it truly takes persistence, not talent to become a journalist.

“A 4-3 victory over the Rays on Friday won't stop the clamor to strip-mine the roster and start anew. Wouldn't it be invigorating and exhilarating to watch a young team grow up together the way the Rays have?
No. No. A thousand times no.
The Astros can — and should — restock their cupboard without giving up on the rest of the decade..”

My question (and I hope your question) is: How do they accomplish that task Steve? If he know’s that, then every owner in MLB should be clamoring for him to become their GM.

I’ll provide you another Steve Quote from this article, “Yes, the Astros look awful. No, it’s not time for a fire sale.”

“No, I don't see any impending signs of a miraculous turnaround this season. At the same time, I wouldn't be so eager to give up on 2009, 2010 and 2011. If McLane were to change his mind and decide to auction off his marketable players for prospects, the Astros would be doomed to some truly dark and dreary days.”

And what will the Astros be during those seasons if nothing is done? We’re not the second to last rated farm system because there are just 28 really, really good farm systems ahead of us -- it’s actually because it’s terrible. So Mr. Campbell is really saying this, “The Astros are totally screwed in 2008, the trades didn’t bring in enough offense to offset historically bad pitching. At the same time, I think if we just keep things they way they are: let Carlos Lee get a year older and at least 15 lbs. bigger, Lance’s legs a year older, Tejada a full THREE years older, and Roy’s arm a year more fatigued, then that way the supporting cast of characters can come around and we’ll be a play off contender.” Think about that, really. This team looks like it’s about a 72 - 90 team. Maybe it’ll be 75 - 87, what a thrill. If things improve next year (meaning we’re not using Brian Moheler as our number four starter) then who knows, we might break into the 80 win territory, but who cares. This team isn’t a play-off contention team for the next three years, nor is it a winning team. So the rest of the decade’s a wash anyway Steve-O.

Campbell notes that Bourn and Towles have yet to develop and that Roy just has been off (of course, readers of this blog know that, given our last look at Roy). Brilliant Steve. So if our Rookies didn’t need a learning curve and Roy didn’t get snake bit, we’d probably be better. It sounds very reasonable, here’s the thing though: when Roy was at his worst and so were Bourn and Towles, we were winning games. Even with Bourn doing much better, Roy getting over his luck or statistical noise, and Towles maybe hitting, we still have three other starters that offer not an ounce of consistency. Moheler is our fourth stater. Moehler is our fourth starter and injury has nothing to do with it. So, while it might be possible that the next two years could see improved offenses, there seems to be ZERO means of shoring up pitching enough to allow for us to field a winning team (see the Detroit Tigers).

We’re screwed if we sit with these guys and hope that something breaks our way in the next two years and allows us to salvage a good season out of our pieces. To do so, would require spending a lot more money on free agents (thus losing draft picks) or trading away what prospects this farm system might produce in the next year or so. The latter is very unlikely given that it would require either our entire first 10 rounds of this years draft or...nope just that, to land a player in a trade. We’re without a proven catching option for the next three years at least (but, in fairness I think Towles will come around), we have NO starting pitching and we’ll still have a walrus in left field making $20 million. This is what Steve Campbell doesn’t want us to forsake. Following Steve’s advice we’d hang onto Wandy Rodriguez, who’s inconsistent at times, but who’s talented left arm could net a bounty of prospects from a team like New York. He’d probably be up and arms about trading away Jose Valverde, who’s capabilities as a closer are both wasted by a team who’s bound to finish in the bottom half of their league and misused by a manager too dumb to know better, yet would command another beautiful bounty of young talent. If it were possible still, I’d trade Roy to any team that’d give us something of note. This is for two reasons:

1) We need the talent
2) It’d be a shame to let Roy’s career be forced to wither and die in the muck that will be the Houston Astros, when the man could chase a ring.

The Chronicle writers have, by in large, been obsessed with trading the trifecta of Roy, Carlos, and Lance, all of whom aren’t going anywhere. Maybe Roy, as he’s said he’d opt of his no trade clause if and only if he could get an extension to whomever he’s traded to. Carlos is fat, not hitting spectacularly, and owed $80 million over the next few years. This means that only the Yankees could possibly trade for him, as they’re the only team with money that I can think would possibly be stupid enough to trade for him. Lance, has said emphatically he’ll never leave the Astros and I believe that. So they’re all pretty much moot points. So I hope they stop. I also hope they stop using terrible logic to defend not trading anything we can to bring in young, viable talent. Next year, Miggy, Carlos, Lance, and Roy will command a combined $60 million, therefore we have to find a way to field a team in reasonable payroll parameters. Fans will turn away from this team if they're a 90 loss team no matter what the average age or payroll of the roster is.

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Growing Pains

So you've probably noticed the wild changes in style and blog service this week. We're trying to get away from Blogger, but having purchased the domain name through Blogger, couldn't reliably redirect the blog to the WordPress server. We apologize for the frustrations and hope to be able to make some sort of an upgrade in the near future, while not shelling out too much cash.

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Cecil Cooper Would Fail the Wonderlic Too

"We've been stealing bases all year," he said. "This is what we do. We've emphasized it from Spring Training on. We're going to try and steal as many bases as we can and be aggressive.” -- Cecil Cooper

Reading the entire article just about killed me. The context comes from Coop trying to defend sending Ty Wigginton on a 1-2 pitch to Michael Bourn, from Kyle Farnsworth, a man who hurls the ball at 97 MPH with ease, in the bottom of the 9th with no outs. Here’s the thing, Cooper may just be going senile, because that never happened (for proof, click here). Ty Wigginton was caught stealing second with one out in the bottom of the 9th with Geoff Blum at the plate. Either way, it was stupid call, one that Coop, at least in his made version of the events, “I would do that 100 times in a row.”
Early this season, lambasted Cooper’s hyper-aggressive base-running philosophy as actually having a meaningful run production killing effect. Ty’s CS is probably just as asinine and stupid of a decision as Bourn being sent and caught stealing 3rd in the 6th. Second base is called scoring position for a reason and you keep a guy with speed for the exact reason that he should be able to score from second on just about any hit.

There are two issues I take with all of this. Much like Evan mentioned yesterday, it’s frightening that man who has been entrusted to manage $95 million worth of assets can a) not keep track of crucial game situations and b) knows next to nothing about game theory.

It should be apparent to any Astros fan paying attention recently, that there have been a marked up tick in CS for Michael Bourn and the Astros as a team. Why is this? Well it’s for the exact reasons as the quote I lead off with: Coop is just going to keep sending the runners as much as possible. Thus, opposing managers know -- either by looking at the numbers or paying attention to the media -- that the Astros are going to attempt a steal very often. So as a result, pitch-out’s are called or catcher’s are primed to make a throwing attempt. It’s game theory, if you know how you’re opponent is going to act, you can then effectively choose a strategy that provides maximum benefit given your opponent’s course of action. Think of it like playing poker with a friend. If you know your friend likes to play conservatively and therefore rarely calls bluffs, it makes since for you to try and bluff as often as possible. Logically, you can only do this for so long -- if your friend is smart that is -- until your buddy will pick up on your boldness and change their strategy (please admire my astute political correctness with the pronouns). Cecil, I’ve got some news for you buddy, everyone’s picked up on your strategy; you’re practically shouting from the roof tops.

That such idiocy is allowed to run rampant, is frightening and shameful, but we’re pretty much an organization that is operated on such terms. My advice, fire Drayton McLane. We’ll have more on that to come.

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Thoughts

There are Pinstripes among us. Not the one that our boys wear. These pinstripers. With the Yankees embarking on a historic (for the Astros) roadtrip to Houston, an exciting series is hopefully in store. On the one hand, you've got a Yankees team who are sort of humming along like we've been accustomed to them doing in the first half of the season. As is the case with many teams, injuries have had a tremendous affect on New York's season. On the other, we have the Astros who have been scuffling of late after looking like world beaters in May. At a game below .500 (33-34), the team is searching for answers as to their recent poor play.

Among those searching is Cecil Cooper, who is quoted as saying that the pitching staff's propensity to give up home runs, "wont't cut it". After reading that, I'm more certain than ever that, on the whole, people don't know any more about the sport than they did one hundred years ago. How baseball managers and insiders can't do exactly what Stephen did in his last post is incredibly frustrating. With the recent advancements in analyzation, including both the statistics of players and the organization itself, it is foolhardy for a team to not adapt. How is it that Drayton McLane can't transfer his business acumen to heading a professional baseball team? The most stark example of his ineptitude is exhibited perhaps not by McLane himself, but by those people that he hires to run the day to day operations of his club. The product that is most visible to the general public, the Astros, are run by a man who has said the following with a straight face, when asked about Lance Berkman bunting his way on base while losing 5-1 in the eighth inning to Milwaukee:

"'That's a good play,' Cooper said of Berkman's decision to bunt with the third baseman playing him deep. 'That's a baseball player's play. It's a nice job. We need baserunners. If you hit a ball out of a ballpark, I call them rally-killers when you get down like that. We need to keep a rally going, and that was a nice play to me.'"

This argument is so convoluted and nonsensical that I have to close my eyes every time I see it, just to calm myself.

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Examining the Wizard: Roy Oswalt, a Case Study in Luck

Today, I was excited to see this article from The Hardball Times. For those of you who are too lazy to click the link and read the article, I’ll quickly summarize. The article looked at pitchers who were the unluckiest so far this season; measuring their rate stats against league averages to define unlucky. Astros fans should not be surprised to find out that Roy Oswalt was the most unlucky pitcher in terms of HR/FB (Home Runs per Fly Ball), posting an absolutely astounding 21.05% HR/FB so far this season. The article by, Derek Carty, goes on to normalize Oswalt’s (and the other pitchers listed in the article’s) outlandish rates stats back to league average levels, plug it into a very complex formula, and determine Oswalt (and company’s) LIPS ERA (Luck Independent ERA). Carty finds that by normalizing Roy Oswalt’s HR/FB back to league-average, Roy Oswalt owns a LIPS ERA of 4.08. Not an outstanding ERA, but I don’t think any Astros fan would quibble with having Roy Oswalt’s ERA be 1.30 earned runs lower.

The LIPS ERA concept works, because by-in-large, things like BABIP, HR/FB, and LD% are largely beyond the pitcher’s control (See above linked articles and this one for supporting evidence). However, what does the knowledge that Roy Oswalt has been unlucky tell Astros fans, or fantasy owners for that matter, about what to expect? Thankfully, Derek Carty again, provides some insight into a favored term bandied on this blog “the law of averages” or “regression to the mean”. Once again, for those to lazy to click the link, essentially we can expect Roy Oswalt to surrender HR/FB at a rate consistent with his career levels from here on out, meaning somewhere around 9% HR/FB, ( he’s never exceeded 12.9%).

To dig further than just discussions of luck and regression to the mean, I was graciously given Roy Oswalt’s pitch-result data from the talented and majestic Josh Kalk. Honestly, I cannot thank him enough for helping me, who knows absolutely nothing about database coding, for providing this data. While I had just about anything you’d ever want to know (and a lot you wouldn’t about) Roy Oswalt’s every pitch in 2008; save his last two starts (tonight’s start included) due to when I actually obtained the info. I’ve isolated only the pitches that resulted in HR, since that’s what we’re looking at (click here for an explanation of the data):



Quickly, here are the pitch averages for all of the available data on Roy Oswalt for 2007:



And then his 2008 pitch averages:



Clearly, movement is down on his Fastball (FB) and slider this year. Velocity does not seem to be the issue for Roy on his fastball in terms of HR allowed either. Of the 11 FB’s that turned into HR in 2008 for Roy, the average speed was 93.23 MPH (min: 91.62 max: 95.61), so that’s clearly not the issues as evident by just looking at his 2007 average. His movement on the FB’s that turned into HR: -4.09 in. X (min: -1.44 in. max: -8.16); 6.00 in. Y (min: 1.99 in. max: 10.85). There’s not as much life on the FB’s that became HR this year by comparison to Roy Oswalt’s 2007 numbers and on the whole his movement is just down. This probably explains his overall decline in strikeout related rate stats, but I don’t know that it really explains why he’s just getting crushed so much. However, I get the feeling that 11 FB's is just far to small of a sample size to say anything meaningful about. In fact if anyone can see any clear trait from the FB velocity or movement from the chart that indicates he's doing something that's allowing his HR spike, please speak up.

Note: I’m ignoring the three sliders, because his slider is just God awful this year, but not the issue apparently.

In my last attempt to decipher the enigma that is Roy Oswalt in 2008, I cited the fact that his release point seems excessively bunched, most likely in an effort not to tip his pitches, thus causing him to lose life on his pitches. While my initial conclusion from that observation was that it must be his slider that is getting pounded was wrong, I none the less stand by the observation as providing insight into his struggles to date.

Tonight, however, I am offering another observation. Looking back at Roy Oswalt’s HR pitches, all of but three of the fourteen pitches have one thing in common: men on base. While it is clearly a limited sample size, perhaps either pitching from the stretch, or the distraction of holding runners is causing Roy to throw pitches that are a bit more crushable. Food for thought at least. While it’s not an earth shattering observation, the pitch/fx data of his HR pitches revealed no other apparent trend. Oddly though, his 50/50 split of RHB/LHB going yard is elevated for his career 75/53 RHB/LHB HR split. There wasn’t a meaningful home/road split for the HR’s either.

Having spent the entirety of the game researching and writing this article, we saw some dominant pitching from Roy Oswalt tonight, but the Ryan Braun long ball makes it 17 HR the season. During the post game so far I’ve heard a lot of discussion centering around Roy Oswalt trying to pitch to contact more vs. trying to strike guys out. Our first attempt to discern what was ailing Roy Oswalt revealed little in the way of evidence that Roy was attempting to pitch to contact from his numbers, but there are probably short comings in trying to prove or disprove pitching philosophy from limited statistics. After an exhaustive combing of pitch/fx data, I’m left scratching my head. It seems that although pitch/fx is an incredible tool that is sure to further revolutionize baseball analysis, it also seems to support the assertion that pitchers have little control over their BABIP, DIPS, HR/FB, LD%, etc. If this is the case, we can only have one logical expectation of Roy Oswalt from here on out: that he should pitch in-line with his career numbers. Astros fans should rejoice and fantasy owners should do what they can to acquire him.

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It's Official, I hate the Astros

How to waste a 10th overall draft pick.

So much for best available talent...today went something like good talent and cheaper than the best available talent.

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Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of our baseball lives

Amateur Draft Thursday

It’ll be on the Deuce tomorrow afternoon. Needless to say this is as pivotal a draft as the Astros have had in years. Giving up draft picks for Carlos Lee, Woody Williams and Preston Wilson have depleted our early round selections in recent years. Last year’s draft was a complete and utter debacle. No picks until the third round when Derk Dietrich was chosen, but eventually he decided to play collegiate ball at Georgia Tech instead. His decision was influenced a greaty deal by….take a swing at it……money! Drayton McLane has been notoriously frugal when it comes to the farm system, instead electing to sign high priced free agents to compensate. Not only has this depleted our farm system to the point of being among the worst in baseball, but the frugality has extended to signing bonuses, the lure that can help reel in the big fish.

This year there will be less excuses. Bobby Heck has been in place as the Astros director of scouting since October, after filling the same role for the Milwaukee Brewers. With Chase Utley having a monster first third of the season, Ed Wade may find himself as having the distinction of selecting three MVP’s while GM of the Philadelphia Phillies. A lot of the optimism surrounding this year’s draft has to do not only with who the team has selecting players, but where the players will be selected. Six picks in the first four rounds (counting two compensation rounds) means the pressure will be on to select players that not only will sign with the club, but will be contributing members of the major league team in the near future.

Two questions remain: what will the Astros do, and what should the Astros do. Heck is already on the record as saying that the best player available will be selected in the opening round. A solid farm system isn’t built in one draft, so this may be the most prudent way to go. What would I do? With all of our high draft choices, and two new men to make the selections, it seems like there is nowhere to go but up. That in mind, why not select a college pitcher who may be just a few years away from being ready to make the jump to the big leagues? These guys would be a good start. Prognosticators have had Aaron Crow going to the Astros, but now have him being selected with one of the earlier picks. Which may be good as his mechanics indicate that he will have problems in the future. Concerns with pitchers’ contract demands have worried some clubs, but the Astros should, and I think will, be prepared to go above what they are currently ready to offer their first round selection as far as a signing bonus goes. After the first round, select the best available talent to fill the cupboard.

Big League News

Losing streak snapped. Magic Wandy pitched like he was in downtown Houston, helping to lead a shut out the Pirates. The bats aren’t inspiring too much confidence right now, but the writing was on the wall for a cold spell. We’re entering the long stretch of games between the end of the first 1/3 of the season to the end of the second 1/3. It’s great to get off to a good start, and it looks good to finish strong, but these games are just as important. Scuffling in June and July is not something this club can afford to do. Only once since 2004 have the Astros had a winning record in the months of June and July. The Cubs have decided to play their best ball as the Astros are playing their worst. This isn’t a season ender, but last week’s stretch of games dug a bit of a hole that needs some excavation.

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