Coop admits he's an idiot

Most baseball fans love to quibble about the line-up, or which pinch hitter should have been used, etc. The fact of the matter is, however, that our fandom should have us hyper-critically analyzing not the line-up (for proof go pick up a copy of The Book or Baseball Between the Numbers) or pinch-hitter debates which, often center around who's hot and who's not, or platoon splits, or batter pitcher match-ups. Google all of those phrases with sabermetrics attached and you'll find definitive repudiations for everything but the platoon splits, making the pinch hitter debate pretty cut and dry.

The most important thing that a manager, in either league, does during the course of a major league baseball game is manage his pitchers. When to take the starter out, which reliever to go do, how to keep everyone's usage at maximum efficiency, while keeping everyone healthy. In a recent interview, Coop admitted that going with his gut has not worked well for him this season. Alyson Footer politely titled the article "Cooper Learns on the Job". Good for her, because I don't see much room for excuses. There is a wealth of information out there that would allow Cecil Cooper to make infinitely more effective decisions with pitcher usage if he were to be willing to check his gut -- or as he praised it in the interview, the search for a TLR sixth-sense. Really extra senses? That's what it takes to be a big league manager? In the mean time, Coop I'll give you some helpful hints: Win-Expectancy, Run-Expectancy, Leverage-Index (especially when taking out the starter, and deciding on which reliever to use). It would be a nice little plane ride of reading. There are plenty of charts that you could keep with you in the dugout. Just please, please don't take all season waiting for your sixth sense to develop, because I have news for you Coop, there are only five.

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Where there's smoke

We've touched on Cecil Cooper's....er...."unorthodox" (read: silly) managerial moves before (specifically: here, here, here here, and here). He made another last night that could have changed the outcome of a fairly important game, as far as late May divisional games are concerned. Top of the seventh inning, two outs, Hunter Pence is on second base, with the Astros down 3-1. Pence followed Carlos Lee's bomb with sharp single to center but is in danger of being stranded and letting a rare scoring opportunity go by the boards. Roy has pitched pretty well. He overcame some early wildness, to give up only one run over his previous five innings of work. Now, with Cards starter Kyle Lohse on the ropes, Cooper leaves in Oswalt to hit for himself. We all know Roy is a competitor who after throwing only 79 pitches to that point was well within the sensible range of being left out to throw another inning. However, two things make me question this move. The first of which is the fact that Roy has had groin problems recently. Why test it in May? Any shot, and I mean ANY shot this team has to compete for a playoff birth is going to hinge on the right arm and healthy groin(s)of Roy Oswalt. As far as in game management in concerned, unless your starter is throwing an absolute gem at that point, it is probably best to not look a gift scoring opportunity in the mouth.

Another important issue that seems to be rearing it's ugly head is a lack of communication between Oswalt and Cooper. We saw a couple weeks ago that both men may not be on the same page. I'm not trying to insinuate anything at this point, but this is something to keep in the back of our collective mind. AM 790's Craig Roberts cited an unnamed team official who, when asked by Roberts if anything was amiss with the Oswalt/Cooper relationship, said (paraphrasing) "that's not something I'd like to get into at this point." That's never a good thing to hear. A lot of this probably has to do with Roy's struggles thus far. Both seem to be reasonable, team first guys, which gives me confidence this whole episode is nothing blown up into something.

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Examing the Wizard: The May Report

In April, we looked at Roy Oswalts’ struggles and determined that it wasn’t his fastball’s velocity that was hurting him, it was that his curve ball, just simply wasn’t curving. Well over a month has passed, and Roy Oswalt is still sporting a 5.61 ERA. While his ERA is inflated, his K-related rate stats have been solid: 6.9 K/9, 2.94 K/BB. It's the hits and the HR that's are killing him: 11.08 H/9 and 1.96 HR/9.

So, what’s changed? Last time we noted that his curve was flat. Looking again at his pitch/fx data from 2007 and 2008 we can see that there some disticnt changes to Roy’s pitches. The fast ball is 1/2 MPH slower, broke 9.51" down in 2007, but only 7.51" down in 2008. That's a significant amount of elevation to his fastaball. Roy's curve is now breaking as far down as it did 2007 (the red flag we sounded in our last post), but only moving away from RHB 4.33", where as in 2007 it broke 6.69 away, a 2.33" difference. So it's staying closer to RHB and not getting in as much on LHB, both if which makes easier to get wood on. Both of these 2" changes are very much the differnce between a swinging strike or a meekly hit ball, and an absolutely crushed ball. His slider has been even worse. In 2007 it broke 3.74" away from a RHB while dropping 2.46". However, in 2008 it's only breaking 1.86" away from RHB and only dropping 1.78" down -- I believe the term is hanging slider. Yet he’s throwing it at a much higher percentage, 17% this year compared to 14% in 2007. It’s an absolutely crushable pitch, and it might explain his unprecedented 15 HR surrendered.

In attempting to explain why it is that his pitches aren’t breaking as well as the used to, we’ve discerned a small, but perhaps meaninful difference in his release point.

2007 Release Points:


2008 Release Points:



It appears that, perhaps, in an effort not to tip his pitches, Roy is trying keep his release point constant. Our guess is that by tightening it release point up, he’s losing life from his pitches.

So there you go, impress your friends and family with your new found knowledge.

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Looking Ahead, part deux

Last week we apprised you of Jonathan Mayo's (the Draft Guru) mock draft results. Well, this week, Mayo has shuffled the board up a bit and is now calling for the Astros to have a shot at Aaron Crow, the RHP starting pitcher from Mizzou.

He's a great pitcher and that's constant need for any ball club -- especially ours. My concerns are that he seems to have thrown a lot of extended outings in both 2007 and 2008 (note: I couldn't find pitch counts, just IP so it's a guess). Even more so, his mechanics are shaky to say the least. His mechanics are flawed in more ways then one. Most frighteningly, he extends well passed a preferable Flex-T and this makes him a shoulder injury waiting to happen, on top of adding stress to elbow. The poor mechanics in combination with number of extended outings he's thrown makes him a prime candidate to become the next Astros' Top-10 pick that disappoints. Anyone with more knowledge of pitching mechanics (mine is really just limited to having recently completed Saving the Pitcher by Will Carroll), please feel free to chime in.

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What numbers can tell us

Cecil Cooper made the decision that with Wandy Rodriguez re-joining the rotation, Chris Sampson would lose his spot as a starter, and be added to the bullpen. Brian Moehler will keep his place as the team's fifth starter. Both have pitched well in stretches, and have done a great deal to help propel the team to a 24-11 strech after a 6-12 start. Fernando Nieve was sent down to Round Rock, with Jack Cassel getting the call-up.

These moves concerning our pitching staff seem to have ignited some heated discussion around town. Driving to work every morning, the talk radio shows love to ask the question, "What's more important- pitching or hitting?" First off, as Astros fans, we should be hestitant to ever think that pitching isn't as important as hitting. Scoring runs is always beneficial to a club's chances at playing well, but with an OBP as low as ours is, there will be stretches where runs are hard to come by. Pitching needs to be a constant to counteract the fickle nature of getting hits and scoring runs. What I'd like to compare and make some inferences from, are the performances of our 2005 NL Champion team, the Cardinals championship team from 2006 and the 2004 and 2007 Boston Red Sox World Series teams. From this, maybe we can get a better idea of how this club will down the stretch.


2008 Houston Astros

Team OBP...(.329-9th in the NL)
Team SLG...(.426-6th in the NL)
Team OPS+..(103)
Team Runs Scored...(261-4th in the NL)

Team ERA...(4.49-12th in the NL)
Team ERA+..(93)
Team SO....(341-10th in the NL)
Team BB....(161-2nd in the NL)*

*This positive stat is down-graded in its importance by the league leading75 HRs that the staff has given up.

2005 Houston Astros

Team OBP...(.322-12th in the NL)
Team SLG...(.408-11th in the NL)
Team OPS+..(95)
Team Runs Scored...(693- 11th in the NL)

Team ERA...(3.51-2nd in the NL)
Team ERA+..(120)
Team SO....(1164-3rd in the NL)
Team BB....(440-1st in the NL)

What really surprised me is that their .730 team OPS is not that far from what this year's club is doing. That fact was balanced by a staff which featured three starters who had sub 3 ERA's, and a closer that struck out over 100 batters in just 70 2/3 innings of work. A lot of negatives can be covered up by strong pitching, and the 2005 Astros are a perfect example of that.

2006 St. Louis Cardinals

Team OBP...(.337-5th in the NL)
Team SLG...(.431-8th in the NL)
Team OPS+..(101)
Team Runs Scored...(781- 6th in the NL)

Team ERA...(4.54-9th in the NL)
Team ERA+..(98)
Team SO....(970-14th in the NL)
Team BB....(504-5th in the NL)

This is the team that will forever-more be referenced when someone tries to make a claim that their team can win a championship. Looking at their numbers, one can see why. The 2006 Cards were average in a few of the most important statistical categories, but were awful as far as striking opposing batters out and were below average in team ERA. Seriously. Everything that usually spells disaster happened to this team, and they still won it all. Look at their records in various situations. One run games, interdivisional games, second half record. Maybe there is legitimate hope that the Astros can win it all this year.

2004 Boston Red

Team OBP...(.360-1st in the AL)
Team SLG...(.472-1st in the AL)
Team OPS+..(111)
Team Runs Scored...(949- 1st in the AL)

Team ERA...(4.18-3rd in the AL)
Team ERA+..(116)
Team SO....(1132-2nd in the NL)
Team BB....(447-3rd in the NL)

This team did Bill James proud. An .832 OPS. 949 runs scored. Impressive to say the least. True, they are an AL club that plays in extremely hitter friendly Fenway Park, as evidenced by their rather mediocre in comparison team OPS+ of 111, but these are numbers that can take a team to the playoffs (almost) regardless of their pitching. Thing is- their staff was very good. They pitched half their games in that same park, and managed to have the third best ERA in the league. Their K/BB rate as a staff was exceptional. Perhaps this team isn't the best to draw comparisons from, as fate/the end of curses/karma possibly had something to do with their winning it all. Hocus Pokus aside, this was a very good team that had perhaps the best assemblege of hitters (based on OBP) ever.

2007 Boston Red Sox

Team OBP...(.362-2nd in the AL)
Team SLG...(.444-3rd in the AL)
Team OPS+..(107)
Team Runs Scored...(867- 1st in the AL)

Team ERA...(3.87-1st in the AL)
Team ERA+..(123)
Team SO....(1149-3rd in the NL)
Team BB....(482-5th in the NL)

Again, a very good squad. Not as much pop offensively, but their pitching staff was dominant at times. Josh Beckett emerged as one of the best post season pitchers of our generation, after adding his impressive 2007 campaign to his 2003 run while a member of the Florida Marlins. Like the 2005 White Sox, the 2007 Red Sox had a hot bullpen who did not surrender leads, and a closer who seemed Mariano-esque at times.

Conclusions, if any

What can we glean from these teams? Well, besides the anomally that are the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, pitching is the common demoniator for reaching and winning a World Series. Specifically, we know that having power pitching correlates strongly to winning in the post season.(Baseball Between the Numbers) As per the post yesterday, the 2008 Astros chances at prolonged success are not favored by the statistics complied thus far, but they have played winning ball through nearly 1/3 of the season. It would be wrong to say that unless a team has an OBP of "x" or an ERA+ of "y", there is no chance for them to advance to the post season, or win a World Series. Whether the 'Stros win if they get there goes beyond the numbers to a great extent.

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Reporting the Facts

Note: This is our centennial post.

This probably comes off as fair-weatheredness following a trouncing by the big bats of Philly, but it’s been something I’ve been tracking for two weeks, and it seems to be a trend that is holding. The Astros are a lucky team right now. As you’ll recall, I’ve touched on XW-L formula’s serval times this season, specifically here and here. The ‘Stros currently sit on a 29-23 record, good for 3rd in the NL Central -- a scant 1.5 games behind the first place Cubs. However, using PW-L from The Hardball Times, we see that the NL Central’s standings look a little different. The Astros own a PW-L record of 26-26, the Cubs a 32-18 record. That’s big difference. That’s a meaningful difference too if it’s attributable to luck and luck alone.

Thankfully, I don’t believe it necessarilly is all luck. While the Astros triple split of: .266/.327/.426 is a solid line that has produced a 4.87 R/G, the pitching staff has allowed 4.79 R.G (note: this does not include Sunday’s trouncing, it seemed like it would just skew the data too much). This is why our PW-L recorde calls for us to be a .500 team, which intutitevely makes sense (If you really want to kill the buzz of the Astros contending, you can look at the more detailed adjusted W-L records from Baseball Prospectus. Our saving grace has been our ability to make our hits count which is evident by our NL leading BA/RISP of .286 compared to our actuall .266 AVG. 50+ games into the season, it seems fair to say that we much just have some sort of element of clutchness on our team (something that might just acount for the difference in our W-L and adjusted W-L records). However, our entire pitching staff’s inability to keep the ball in the park, stands to wreck our offense’s chances of winning balls games for us, as we continue to lead MLB with 1.4 HR/9. Combined with below averagae K/9 and BB/9, the HR have to stop or it won't matter how good our bats and gloves are.

It just food for thought, something to keep an eye on and be aware of. We’ve seen some special performances so far this season and it’s a team with the talent to keep pulling it off. Our pitching has to hold or we’ll become a .500 team with no real shot at contending quickly (or worse of you look at the 3rd order wins at BPro). I believe the ‘Stros are contenders, but I felt like I owed it to anyone who reads this blog to apprise them of what the numbers say.

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Looking ahead

I won't lie. I don't know all that much about the MLB draft process. It's got a lot of rounds. High School pitchers have high upside, but the road to stardom is littered with can't miss prospects. In fact, much of what I do know about professional baseball's draft is what I learned from Moneyball. With that in mind, Stephen has read up about the process and has come bearing gifts, which since his work is more demanding than mine, I will deliver to the blogging public. The Astros hold the tenth pick in this year's draft, their highest since 2001, when they selected a literal one hit wonder.

The latest MLB.com mock draft has the Stros selecting Yonder Alonso, a stud first baseman from THA U, or for those unfamiliar with college football, The University of Miami. He's got some numbers that jump off the page. In 2006, he became the first Miami freshman since Ryan Braun to lead the Hurricanes in RBI and HR's. A .519 OBP as a sophomore in college. Again, baseball projections and scouting are about as inexact as inexact sciences get, but it would be nice to be able to see 1B for this team transition from Bagwell to Berkman to a player like Alonso.

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Not Again, Not Again

Let's go back to Yankee Stadium. Innings before Lance Berkman was ever brought up, Carlos Delgado was at bat in the fourth inning with two runners on. He took the Chien Ming Wang offering and sliced a deep line drive into the left field corner. The ball ricocheted off the lower portion of the foul pole (which at Yankee stadium is black and not yellow for some reason) for an apparent three run homer. Third Base Umpire Mike Reilly was overruled by Homeplate Ump Bob Davidson, and the call was reversed. In this game, the mistake was not important to the ultimate outcome, as the Mets won handily. Last night, Alex Rodriguez had a second home run called a double, in another game that was a blow-out.

Two botched calls. In the same stadium. In the same week. It seems that MLB needs to follow suit of every major professional and collegiate sports leagues in the United States, and implement some sort of instant replay. The NFL has been tinkering with instant replay for the past twenty years. It has improved the quality of games, and has added a new dimension to these contests, in my opinion. The infamous "Tuck Rule" 2002 playoff game aside, instant replay has been successful. Games haven't dragged on into five hour melee's. Only certain calls are reviewable, limiting a Head Coach's ability to dissect every possible snap. The NBA, NCAA Basketball and Football are among the other sports that offer instant replay to some extent.

I'm not proposing that baseball turn to the replay booth on disputed balls and strikes. That is one area that would take away so much of what makes the sport intriguing. On the other hand, home runs, calls concerning out/safe on the basepaths and other defensive plays should be able to be reviewed by the umpiring crew. I mean, an incorrect call by an umpire have affected countless games, even a World Series. The league needs to step up and get this call right.

Am I confident that it will? Well, the Stirke of 1994 halted two players chances to become the first (and second) in half a century to compilie a .400 batting average over the course of an entire season. In Montreal, the Expos were playing the best baseball of any team that season before the labor stoppage occured. By time the players took the field again the following year, fans did not return in Montreal, and the death of the Expos was not a question of if, but when. It took a steroid infused power binge by McGwire and Sosa to bring a lot of fans back to baseball. In the aftermath, the most hallowed record in American sports fell to a man whose callous jealousy was a result of seeing the adulation that those performance enhanced players received in the summer of 1998.

I'm not at all trying to say that baseball will lose it's fan-base over instant replay. What I am trying to argue is that baseball has made decisions in the past that have been short sighted, and have hurt the sport a great deal. In the crowded American marketplace of entertainment options, baseball is but one of thousands. It is the Great American Pastime, but it is far from the only American pastime. Hopefully, MLB recognizes this, and a step in the right direction can be made as far as instant replay is concerned.

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On Homework Assignments

Towards the end of last night's Mets' trouncing of the Yankees, Jon Miller and Joe Morgan were discussing the hottest hitters in baseball. Miller brought up Lance Berkman within the context of Lance batting something like .600 over his past 60-65 AB's. Morgan praised Berkman for being a consistent hitter who was also hitting for power. If anyone is unfamiliar with Joe Morgan, this sort of vague, otherwise uninspiring response is actually the highest of praise from the Hall of Famer. Larry Wayne Jones had some dap thrown his way for his higher than .400 BA.

So, while he was mentioned, Lance was brushed aside without too much hesitation by either man. I immediately thought of a game between those same Mets and the Phillies probably 2 Sundays ago when Chase Utley was in the middle of a hot streak himself. Listening to those two prattle on and on about the greatness that is Utley was almost too much. They sounded like a couple of old women who could not stop talking about the handsome boy from down the block, and how he was going to become a doctor. Joe had this hurried excitement in his voice, as if he couldn't wait to make the next nonsensical statement about Utley. While he did have a stretch of games(I'm looking specifically at the stretch from April 4th to May 5th), Lance has hit safely in all but eight games he's played in. His slugging percentage has been higher for a longer stretch than Utley's ever was.

I'll just say this: from May 1st on, what we have seen out of Lance has never been duplicated in the history of baseball. His OPS+ ( a measure of a player's OPS against the league average) this year so far is 231. I like to use OPS+ because it's a quick way to judge a player's performance independent of ballpark factors. 100 is thought to be average. Now, to feel truly in awe, peer back up to Lance's number. I won't repeat it: I'll make your eyes/brain compute his number and then give you the extra second to let it sink in. Astounding, am I right? More than twice the league average , with nearly a third still hanging out in the stratosphere of baseball stardom. 2.33333333333333 ad infinitum times the average major league player in terms of OPS, more than 1/4 of the way through the season.

Barry Bonds posted an OPS+ of 231 in his 2003 campaign which saw him total the following line: 45 HR, 148 BB, 58 K, .341/.529/.749. More recently, I figured Magglio Ordonez or Alex Rodriguez would have posted Berkmanian OPS+ numbers in their 2007 seasons. I'll save you the link click and say 134 and 177, respectively is what I found. I would insert a caveat here, and take note of a small sample size, but we're past that. He has enough AB's to show that his body of work is legitimate. Not that he'll continue to post Magna Carta like OPS numbers (in the 1200s), but this is honest to God greatness on display.

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The Long Ball: Public Enemy Number One

8 HR in two games. Ok that's unfair because 6 came last night and 3 came of Oscar Villareal alone, but still you catch my drift. On a night when Roy was apparently struggling with a his groin, the defense continued to falter some more (or at least it did to me). Two games are nothing to get excited over, but perhaps these two might be. Earlier this week, I highlighted the fact that the Astros were leading the league in surrendering home runs and were playing outstanding defense.

With the Astros in the thick of things, I cautioned that if our pitchers aren't just being the victim of statistical noise (luck) and if the defense slows down as we get into the grind of the season that'd we'd be in big trouble. Tonight our bats were silent after the 1st and the exception, of course, of Lance Berkman. This team won't get anything done without the bats -- no matter what the pitchers or gloves are doing. Now that Bourn is down in the line-up, the line-up feels a lot more like the line-up has in years past: 3 easy outs come 7-8-9. I can't throw any numbers at the this really, but it just the feeling I've got.

While typing this and watching the post game interviews, it was interesting to note the disparity between Coop and Roy's account of the 6th/7th innings. Coop was interviewed first and presented the story as Roy came back into the dugout and wanted to go back out and throw in the 7th. Roy, not five minutes later, said that the groin flared up in the 6th, but he got through it. Then, came into the dugout and told him his night was over, but that they (Coop and the Coaches I assume) asked for him to go back out. I'm not going to point fingers, it was just something caught my attention. Talking with Evan on the phone after the game, we came to the conclusion that even if Roy misses some time, it might not be as bad as it sounds. With no disrespect to Roy, he hasn't exactly been dominant this year (certainly flashes of brilliance, but no real consistently great performances). With Wandy due to return soon, we should manage just fine -- I hope.

Wiggy finally looked good at the plate in his last two AB's. Bourn got a hit, but followed with a CS. Kaz got CS too. I guess tonight, and maybe this series, wasn't our night, or series. Even if we bomb tomorrow's game, we'll finish the road trip with a 6-4 record, which is more than you can ask for from the Astros on the road, on the West Coast, and in Arlington. We open the home stand against the Cubs, which is when the real challenge begins. HR rates and Defensive Zone Ratings aside, this team has got to stick it to their Central rivals if this season will go anywhere.

Homework assignment: Watch and listen for how little attention Lance will get for being on this tear he's on from ESPN. Compare that to home many times A-Rod going yard in his minor league rehab assignment gets talked about.

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What the HELL are they thinking?

Why on earth would you bench your competent defensive shortstop when you are starting your ground ball pitcher who relies heavily on defense?? Anyone? Because it just led to a 2-runs in 2/3 of inning. This just chaps my ass.\

**UPDATE TOP OF THE 4TH**

We're down 2-6 after a Lance Berkman 2 RBI single, preceded by Kaz Matsui's head hunting line drive through Lincecum, and Pence making Randy Winn sees stars on the RF wall. I'm still pissed that we should only be down 4-2, WE SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TWO RUNS. WHY WOULD YOU START SOMEONE AT SHORT WHO HASN'T PLAYED MEANINGFUL SS IN MONTHS WITH CHRIS SAMPSON ON THE MOUND??? Chris Sampson isn't that great of a pitcher; he's as good as the defense that's behind him. Further, we're facing one of the best RHP in the league--why would you take away on of your best offensive threats?

As I typed, Mark Loretta just ripped a line-drive single to LF to bring in Lance: 3-6. At this point we should only be down a run. I still could just kick Cecil Cooper square in the nuts.

It's the end of the 4th now. Chris has to be sharp this inning, because we have a depleted bull pen courtesy of Coop "managing like it was Game 7 of the World Series" last night (JD's words). This team is the thick of things in the NL Central and in the Wild Card...why is Coop conceding games??

**UPDATE 5TH INNING**

Chris was solid in his frame...until Mark Loretta botched a throw to Lance, another run that shouldn't be on the board. Furor at an all time high so far.

**UPDATE MIDDLE OF THE 6TH**

Hopefully we're going to get the Giants bull pen...Carlos stole a base, which was entertaining to watch. At this point I'm just apathetic to baseball.

Great article about the future of baseball analysis.

**UPDATE TOP OF THE 8TH 1 OUT**

It's tied 7-7, Erstad hit a monster homerun, after Carlos Lee went yard, Blum reached on a WP K, and Loretta singled. I was listening to the game in my car, as I went to run an errand. I was livid that Erstad was in to PH, then the radio goons (seriously those guys suck) rattled off his numbers in AT&T Park. It was glorious hearing the call, so much so that I almost got in a car wreck. After my joy subsided, I realized that we should be winning the damn ball game though. We better win this game or I'll call for Coops balls. Seriously, this team is so good right now, too good to concede games based on pitching match-ups alone. Frustrations aside, good ball game now...GOD I HOPE WE HOLD ON TO IT! If Loretta makes an error, I don't know if I can stand it.

**TOP OF THE 9TH**
Lance Berkman continues his torrid pace by going yard off Brian Wilson. I love Lance, still could kick Coop in the crotch, and I'm excited for what develops after Carlos Lee's single. I'd still like to note that the score should be 4-8.

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Indicted (Again) and a craaaazzzzy idea

Barry Bonds is still in trouble, the same trouble he's been in since he was indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges nearly six months ago. Most people (myself included) didn't realize that a Federal Judge for the Northern District of California ordered the prosecution to re-write the flawed indictment in late February. The new indictment charges the same offenses as the original: 14 charges of perjury and one for obstruction of justice. The fourteen perjury counts are for each time Bonds supposedly lied while under oath.

The defense has maintained that the indictments against Bonds have been too vague. To this point, the judge has ordered that they be revised, and made more specific, honing in more on what Bonds did that was illegal, noting exact instances both in and out of the courtroom. From the get go, prosecutors faced the problem of trying to prove that The HomeRun King knowingly lied under oath. It would be relativley simple for the defense to disprove, and likewise difficult for the prosecution to prove, the culpable mental state. A " mistake of fact defense is a common and effective means to absolve a defendant of wrongdoing. Perhaps Barry didn't know the contents of what he was injecting/injesting at the time? Then he didn't know that he was lying to prosecutors while under oath. If he didn't, the defense is en vouge, and the perjury charges have no legs.

The new indictment doesn't stand to increase or decrease the amount of prison time that Bonds stands to serve, which is thought to be 30 months. All it really does is give the jury new ways to find him guilty, since the previous indictment is now divided up moreso. He will go to trial, but now that will be delayed.

Actual Baseball Article

After watching Bradndon Backe give up three runs in the first inning last night, I couldn't help but wonder how long our rotation could continue to allow the team to stay in/win ballgames. Roy O is coming around, Chacon has been a pleasant surprise, but Sampson and Moehler cannot be expected to continue to pitch as they did last weekend in Los Angeles. Brandon Backe though, has been perhaps the biggest dissapointment. Sure, he gave us a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER), but a look at his FIP , shows that he has been almost entirely responsible for his less than satisfactory performance thus far. His GDP (ground ball percentage) is the lowest on the team, that's counting Roy who's given up a team high nine home runs already this year. Brandon just does not have the oomph on his fastball to get it past major league hitters when it is not located perfectly.

What to do? Well, the four man rotation , is the impetus for our idea. The idea is basically to take out the fifth starter, put the four remaining starters on a strict pitch count, and watch as your team gives up less runs. That's a perfect world scenario. What could work for a team that has a pretty solid bullpen, which ridiculously high home run rates aside, we believe the Astros have. Ed Wade prides himself on constructing effective, if not slightly overpaid relief corps. Why not have Coop and pitching coach Dewey Robinson figure out a way to manipulate the bullpen to have certain guys pitch in the fifth spot in the rotation? It would have to fluctuate, of course, given the prior days results and necessities, but doing this would eliminate a spot in the rotation for a starter who will most likely struggle to a certain extent, while giving the bullpen work on a specific day. It would mean having a limited bullpen on some days of the week, but Roy, Wandy (when healthy) and Shawn have shown themselves capable of pitching deep into ballgames.

As the season goes on, and if the team stays in the hunt those games where our fifth starter pitches mean just as much as those when Roy takes the mound. The team carries an extra reliever for a reason. Dave Borkowski was a starter in the minor leagues, and has thrown more than four innings five times in 2006 and 2007. Brian Moehler is comfortable coming out of the bullpen or starting, and Oscar Villareal can pitch multiple innings as well. Maybe it wouldn't work, but come August, the team may be willing to try anything to gain an edge.

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The Astros, They're So Hot Right Now

Incase my lame movie reference failed, it's Mugatu from Zoolander. Ok, Pop-culture references will be shelved now. For we college students, it's officially summer and the Astros have continued sizzle--big time. Lance is setting all sorts of records for his streak and thus far has exhibited no signs of cooling off, though a nagging leg injury could spell cooler temperatures for Lance. While Lance has been the main attraction with his bat, we should not overlook the fact that Lance has been, to date, the best defensive first baseman in all of MLB, with an outstanding RZR of .926. Yes, not only has Lance hit better than everyone in MLB, he's also played better defense than anyone at his position, including the much lauded Albert Pujols (the guy who won the gold glove last year). Right now, it appears that the NL MVP award is a two man race between Berkman and Utley, however, it is only mid-May, but an exciting prospect none-the-less.

However, while we could analyze Lance's bat and glove all day, the thing I want to focus on today, is the Astros as a team. We've done a few 10-Game Recaps, trying to analyze the changes in key stats that allow us to predict where the Astros fortunes might end up. These, however, have been pretty skin deep, with a focus on Offense and pitching only. So today, I'm going to attempt to break down the Astros as a Team, in lieu of doing another 10 Game Recap tomorrow, as they seem to have a very tepid response so far. I'm using stats available from the Hard Ball Times, an excellent site that provides a treasure trove of statistics, research, and analysis for free.

Courtesy of the Hardball Times' Team Reports, a look at the Astros record in terms of XW-L reveals that Astros are not a product of luck and their 22-17 record is in line with their runs scored/allowed. This good news, but looking at the Cubs and Cardinals record is a mixed bag of news. The Good News: The Cardinals are 1 game ahead of their XW-L, and in general seem to be due to come back to earth, and probably already are. That fact puts the Astros in 2nd place in the NL Central. However, the Bad News: the Cubs are 2 games below their XW-L, and should instead be at 25-13, making us 3.5 games behind the NL Central leader is hypothetical terms.

Breaking down the offense, we can see that the Astros are improving their OBP, but are still below league average with .321 mark, but by being 5th in the NL in slugging (.422) they've managed to post a league average OPS of .743, and keep the offense moving, simply by hitting the tar out of the baseball. While OBP is down, it is interesting to note that the Astros are 7th in the NL (and exactly league average) at P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) 3.82 P/PA. That's a pretty good rate and portends to either a higher BB% or is just a indication that they seem to have be able work the count, waiting for the right pitch. Either way, it assuages fears that our offense will collapse. Perhaps cautionary, the 'Stros have hit .292 with RISP and only .265 overall. Maybe they're exhibiting clutchness or it could be harbinger of a deflating offense unless the hits keep coming when we have men on.

The one thing that we have overlooked this year when talking about pitching, is how much this team is getting killed by the long ball. We have well above average K/9 (7.0), better than average BB/9 (3.3), and are league average in GB% (44%) and LD% (19%), we've even stranded more runners than any other pitching staff in the league with a LOB% of 77%, but when it comes to HR/8 we're tops with 1.3 HR/9. Correlated to that, we also lead the league in .SLG allowed with .453, well above the league average of .408. I'm at a loss to explain the HR's, because we have excellent rate stats that indicate strong control. I guess when we're making mistakes, we're just getting punished for them big time. I'd imagine that this has to be a fluke of some sort, and via mechanics being corrected or luck evening out, will drop. As such, given our strong rate stats, the staff appears to be much better than expected so far and due for some improvement in the ERA department.

Finally, and what I feel is the most important part of this team that has been overlooked, is their defense. The team owns a .847 RZR, which is second in the NL, second only to the Cardinals. It's been outstanding so far, especially given all the pre-season doubts about Tejada's glove, Bourn's maturity in the field, and Carlos' waist-line. Speaking of Lee and Bourn, consider this the fact that Astros own an above average Out-Field RZR in the NL with a .910, while having the second worst LFer (Lee, RZR of .804). The infield is tied for second in the NL with an RZR of .810, second again to the Cardinals. Over the off-season, we observed a few Astros-centric blogs, and one in particular, that chastised this teams defense over and over again. Their main fears were that Lance was a bad 1B, Tejada would look like Carlos Lee at SS, and that the hot corner would be devoid of anything you could begin to call adequate defense. Tejada has posted a .873 RZR (good for 3rd in the NL behind the injured Tulowitzki and the Brave’s Yunel Escobar), Lance, as we already mentioned is the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, and the hot corner has been average (Wigginton .711) to above average (Blum .756).

So here’s the quick and dirty of it: This team has been getting the hits that count, when they count, which so long as their plate discipline remains, should hold true. Our pitching has been very good with the exception of the long ball, which one has to assume that will even out of the season--leaving just solid pitching. Our gloves have been great; they’ve been exceptional in some areas, average in others, and just pitiful for Carlos Lee. This looks like a team that is capable of staying the course, they’re confident, capable of winning games in any way (just look at the Dodgers series) and if anything, have room for some improvement still. In sum, we look like a contender, which in the end is all we could hope for and more than a lot of us expected.

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NoCal, after a SoCal Sweep

The Astros first three game series sweep of the 2008 season occurred the same day our bats were silent for 6 and 2/3 innings. While major leaguers were hitting quite well with the pink bats , our bats were stymed by Dodger rookie Hiroki Kuroda. Eventually though, our offense came through in a big way against reliever Jonathan Broxton,who gave up six earned runs in just 1/3 of an inning. The third game of the series saw a reversal from the first two, with a slow start and a strong finish. Shawn Chacon pitched a superb game after giving up a two run homer to Houstonian and Dodger first baseman James Loney in the bottom of the first. Chacon has the longest streak of no decisions to start the 2008 season of any starting pitcher in MLB.

That being said, the Giants are next. A team that has been described as having a roster of AAA players and stud righty (and ace of my fantasy team) Tim Lincecum. Regardless of how hot the Astros are, or how devoid of talent the Bayside Boys are, the Astros are a ridiculous 60 games under .500 in San Francisco, since the teams began playing each other. Soft tossing lefty Barry "85 mph fastball, or bust" Zito , takes the mound for the Giants tonight. The way Lee, Pence and Tejada have been hitting lately, coupled with Lance's Ruthian VORP there seems no better time than now to stop the history of poor play in San Francisco.

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Astros' Farmhand Bud Norris is a Baseball Prospectus Minor League Pitcher of the Month

I doubt many of you have a BPro subscription (if you read this blog and find any of the stats remotely interesting, you should shell out the cash), but I'll give you the quote that accesses Norris:

"Norris is one of the few bright spots in the Astros system. His smallish frame turns off some, but with a plus fastball and outstanding curve, he’s capable of missing plenty of bats, and has struck out 40 in 30 innings. Combining that skill with much better command this year, he’s generating fewer concerns about his size."
- Kevin Goldstein

Not major news, but given our rather weak back-end of the rotation and the much lamented dearth of minor league talent available, it was refreshing, for me at least, to see BPro give Bud Norris some love. Also, here's a link to Bud Norris' stats at Corpus this year. It's interesting that his peripherals are so strong, but that his ERA doesn't reflect it. Especially since those are just absolutely dominate peripherals.

Here's to not getting shelacked on the West Coast...I hope.

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Lance Sets Records, Roy Bears Down, and Kaz Steals Us a Win

Roy Oswalt looked pretty awful to start the game. 8K’s and 9 batters later, Roy Oswalt was looking as dominant as he ever had. As good as he was, he -- like just about every other Astro as of late -- played second fiddle to the BIG PUMA. Although this has nothing to do with his miraculous hitting, this interview with Lance talking about his new found speed is Lance at his best. While Lance deserves his accolades for his hitting in 8 straight ABs, we’re going to focus on the base paths, again.

Tonight Kaz Matsui made the 9th inning possible by his heads-up base running, which made our win possible. While I railed against our foolish base running earlier, Kaz Matsui utilized the SB about as effective as it can be tonight. Previously, I used run-expectancy in order to judge our base running tendency, which worked in the frame-work of what does the SB/CS mean to our run potential. However, tonight it’s all about the win, and so I’ll use Win-Expectancy (WE).

So there were were in the bottom of the ninth, 3-outs available to bring in a run and go home. Kaz drew the walk, and the winning run was on the base paths. Kaz stole second with Miggy at the plate in order to eliminate the double play, but also allowed for the IBB to Lance. Thought it allowed for Lance's IBB, that SB, at the time was worth 10% points of WE. Consider that for a bit. Kaz took us from a 71.6% chance of winning to a 81.5% chance of winning on a SB; that’s huge. Using the Run-Expectancy frame-work last time, I determined that a SB is worth about 1/6 of our total offensive production per inning or 1/54 of our offensive production per game. Yet, because Kaz took the base and put himself in scoring-position, he added 10% to our chances of winning. After Tejada K’ed and Lance was IBB, Kaz changed the course of the game because he was keyed into the game. On a Wild Pitch that Nieves knocked down, Kaz was able to act quickly to take third. Again, taking our WE from 71.2% to 82.6%, 11.4% of WE on his second SB of the inning. From there, the whole complexion of Carlos Lee’s AB changed...for the better. After lancing a fliner over Milledge’s head, the Astros took their 5th straight game, to improve to 18-16 on the season, forcing managers to think a little more carefully when the IBB Lance from now on.

Here's a pictorial summary, courtesy of Fan Graphs:



Last time I made the SB sound like a bad bit of ball-playing, it wasn’t exactly my intention. My aim was to say that there are times for running and people who should be doing the running. Tonight, Kaz Matsui gave everyone one a lesson in high-leverage situations making the SB much more valuable than it typically is. Furthermore, Kaz highlighted another feature of this team. In our 10 Game Recap we noted that in spite of a dismally low OBP, the Astros have driven in runs simply by CRUSHING the ball with an astronomical (no pun intended) .184 adjusted ISO (isolated slugging percentage). Part of the reason why this high ISO, low OBP formula has worked, is because we’ve been able to move runners over via the SB -- Kaz’s performance tonight and Lance’s base-running clinic last night being the primary examples.

Here's to hoping we can keep this act up as we wrap up our home stand and take this show in the road. Right now we're a scant game out of second place in the Central.

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Effective use of 60 strikes

So let’s see. 1998. I was in 7th grade. Life was good. Hawaiian shirts weren’t just for fat guys or partiers from 80’s movies. As for our Stros, they were beginning a season that resulted in a second straight NL Central Championship. Randy Johnson would come over in a deadline deal, but even he wasn’t enough to push the team past a Kevin Brown led San Diego Padres in the NLDS.

Our 102 win season notwithstanding, one game stands out more than the rest. Ten years ago today, Shane Reynolds, tossed a solid ballgame against the Cubs, giving up one earned run in 8 innings of work with 10 strikeouts. Our offense though, couldn’t muster any support….oh yea, that was the result of facing a rookie right hander from Texas named Kerry Wood. May 6, 1998 was to be his day. 122 pitches, 84 strikes- 60 of which resulted in his compiling a twenty strikeout game. The only blemishes on an otherwise perfect box score was a Ricky Gutierrez single, and a HBP from a likely suspect.

This was an Astros team that averaged 5.4 runs per game that season, and won the Central by 12.5 games. The day before, Lima Time himself, lead the team to a 10-5 beat down to begin the season series against the Cubs.Wood dominated the follwing day though, utilizing his array of pitches (fastball, curve, slider and changeup), to make the Astros look foolish. A rookie with control issues would seemingly play right into a veteran offense’s hands. Wood showed uncharacteristic poise by leading off AB’s with his fastball, and closing with his curveball, keeping hitters off balance throughout the contest. A little over 15,000 were in attendance for this game on a cold, damp spring afternoon on the north side of Chicago. For a stadium that is packed to the brim on most days, the rain earlier in the day kept many fans from taking their seats. Only one other man in MLB history to that point had accomplished what the 20 year old had done that day. Roger Clemens had done it twice before, leaving the two Texans as the only hurlers to have struck out 6 and 2/3 innings worth of major league hitter.

Kerry Wood has had a tumultuous career to say the least. Numerous trips to the DL. A list of arm problems, that should have caused the Cubs organization to ponder giving Dr. James Andrews his own office overlooking the ivy at Wrigley Field. Today though, in all fairness, we should look at what he did 10 years ago and appreciate it for what it was- lightening in a bottle. Wood never came close to achieving that sort of success in the majors again. The Cubs ill fated run to the pennant in 2003 notwithstanding, Wood has seen more lows than highs, and will probably never start another ball game in his career.
Since his 20 strikeout performance, he has lost favor with those in the Chicago media, who are almost too willing to point him towards the door after a rough outing.

Right or wrong, Kerry Wood never asked to come up to the majors as an unripe 20 year old prodigy. He sure as HELL could never have known or prevented Dusty Baker from becoming his manager and helping to, in affect, destroy his and fellow DL mainstay Mark Prior’s careers. Baseball is a sport that is great due in large part because fans can compare and contrast numbers and statistics for players who are separated more by time than by anything else. The game is largely played the same way today as it was in 1998 as it was in 1908. What Kerry Wood did a decade ago is something that ranks amongst the greatest performances ever by a pitcher, not to mention a wet behind the ears kid who was more of a hurler than a pitcher at the time. I know that I am critical of some athletes for their inconsistent play, perhaps more than anything else. Aristotle aside, this was an event worth remembering. Tomorrow though, it’s back to Cub hating.

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3rd 10 Game Recap (Though none are 10 Game Samples...)

After a weekend that saw our first three game series sweep of the season, let’s take a look at the recent returns.

Hitting
Stats	PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
Last 10 Games	347	47	14	46	20	56	.241	.285	.725	.198	2.8
The Previous 12 Games	426	66	13	61	41	62	.286	.357	.809	.167	1.51
1st 10 Games	339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65
2008	1,112	149	38	141	83	174	.255	.313	.752	.184	2.09

Offensively, the Astros have been a mixed bag. On one hand, the team has scored more than five runs in five straight games. It's terrible BABIP numbers have arrived at the mean, as we’ve been scoring more runs in spite of our low team batting average and on base percentage. What could be a harbinger of darker days to come is the incredibly low team OBP. Given that our team OBP in the previous twelve games was .357, a dip all the way to .285 is startling. For comparison’s sake, the San Diego Padres have the worst team OBP of any NL team, but our guys have outscored the Friars by 34 runs this season, or a little over a run per game played thus far. How is this possible? A look at our team’s ISO (isolated slugging percentage) tells us that although the Astros aren’t getting on base with any regularity, they are getting tremendous bang for their buck. It seems as if the team may settle around where their season totals current stand, as far as the type of offensive production that we will see. In other words: don’t hold your breath as far as hoping this team will challenge the Cubs for OBP supremacy.They're simply aren't built that way. But, that may ok as long as the folks in the Crawford Boxes keep getting souvenirs that they don’t throw back. Look for JR Towles and Carlos Lee to start racking up hits at a greater rate, and for Lance to slide a little, based on his average BABIP, but fairly low line drive percentage (LD%).

Starting Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	GB%	E(W)	E(L)
Last 11 Games	49.3	3	2	37	29	6.75	1.28	5.47	.327	46%	2.2	3.2
Previous 11 Games	58.7	4	3	45	22	6.90	2.05	4.76	.290	44%	3.9	3.8
1st 10 Games	58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	4.03	.303	44%	1.9	3.7
2008	166	7	9	118	69	6.40	1.71	4.72	.312	45%	9.2	9.7

Relief Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	BB/9	H/9
Last 11 Games	45.3	3	2	4	41	13	8.15	3.15	2.78	.213	2.58	6.15
Previous 11 Games	37.7	2	2	2	35	12	8.36	2.91	4.78	.293	2.87	9.8
1st 10 Games	27	3	3	1	19	12	6.33	2.03	5.67	.379	4	12.33
2008	110.0	8	7	7	95	37	7.72	2.56	4.17	.289	3.02	8.92

The pitching staff has also seen a bit of a regression over the past 10 games. More walks and a much higher ERA jump off the stat sheet for the starters. Chris Sampson has struggled in his past two starts in Arizona and yesterday against the Brewers, after dominating the Reds in the Queen City. The team leads the league in home runs against, couple that with a ground ball ratio below 50%, and this team is staring at a potential problem in the first 30 games of the season. However, the team’s K/BB and K/9 ratios have been adequate, which is due in large part to a bullpen that has been led by closer Jose Valverde, who has converted his last four saves , while not giving up a run in that same stretch. Again though, a very low BABIP indicates some regression is imminent, hopefully the K rates maintain near their current levels, so the pen’s overall effectiveness will not diminish.

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.500 via the Long Ball

Bear with us this week as we finish off the school year. I hope to have some sort of statistical recap this week (I'm shooting for tomorrow or Tuesday), thought who knows how long the game period will be...it should be interesting though. I have some gut feelings about the numbers will say about the 'Stros and I'll even give you some insight into the Cardinals fortunes.

Anyway, how ridiculous was this series sweep? Back-to-Back-to-Back bombs, in a Hunter Pence 2 HR game. A Backe-Bourn back to back performance. All capped off by a Lance Berkman blast of Sheets and Hunter Pence's walk-off HR madness. They sure do make things interesting.

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