Examining the Wizard: Long Balls and Luck

**UPDATE - Links Fixed, I hate Blogger**

So I found another tool to throw at the Roy Oswalt mystery. It’s called Hit Tracker and it’s an incredible tool. Basically, it corrects for wind, atmospherics, and probably some more stuff, to say how far the ball would have traveled. It then categorizes HR by the following categories:

No Doubters - the HR cleared the fence by 20 vertical feet and landed at least 50 feet past the fence.

Just Enough - the HR cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet and landed less than once fence height length beyond the fence. It’s just snuck out.

Lucky - the HR wouldn’t have gotten out if it had been hit on 70 degree, calm day.

Plenty - Not a Just Enough or No Doubter HR.

So with that in mind, lets look at the 18 HR that Roy Oswalt has allowed, because, as we noted, he’s been especially unlucky with the HR ball this year. Given that we’re chalking some of this up to luck, we should expect him to have a fair amount of HR due to luck (i.e. Just Enoughs or Lucky HRs).

Just Enoughs: 3 HR

Plenty but Lucky: 2

Just Enoughs that were Lucky: 1

So, of the 18 HR balls that Roy Oswalt has surrendered, 6 could have just as easily stayed in the park if there was the slightest change in any variable. While this information doesn’t change the fact that Roy has struggled or explain why he has, it does provide credence to the idea that his HR/FB rate is inflated due to luck. Hopefully a Roy Oswalt with a healthy hip abductor and his luck/statistical randomness due to correct will emerge and be an effective Roy Oswalt in the 2nd Half. Perhaps one that decides to wave his no trade clause in the off-season and nets us some top prospects/major league ready players, too.

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