Examining the Wizard: Diagnosis

We’ve done A LOT to try and figure out the “hiccups” of Roy Owalt this year. It started in April, continued into May, and then in June, we consulted pitch/fx guru Josh Kalk for some assistance. Evan and I happened to be at the game in which the Wizard hurled some magic before succumbing to a hip abductor strain. We were on a homework assignment, of sorts, that night.

In response to the Kalk assisted Roy Oswalt article, Evan and I were asked by a member of the HBT staff to try and explain why Roy had suddenly become so ineffective from the stretch. I had noted that all but three of his HR allowed, at the time, had come while in the stretch, but failed to emphasis how low his LOB% was compared to his career numbers. In ’05, ’06, and ’07 Roy Oswalt had a 78% LOB%, in 2008, so far, he sports a 70.8% LOB%. That’s a large drop off and would be indicative (as I alluded to) an issue from him pitching from the stretch. So at the game, we were trying to pick up on any minute differences, but since the eyes aren’t well equipped for such an exercise, we saw nothing of note. I almost wrote of the idea that, mechanically, something was off with Roy until he left the game.

So, we have to ask ourselves, how long has Roy been dealing with a hip that just hasn’t felt right? Or, what has Roy been doing differently all season from the stretch, to bring on this injury?

I’m not qualified to say anything remotely intelligent about that, but those are the two things that went through my head when I read this from injury expert Will Carroll, in response to whether Roy’s cortisone injection was to help speed the recovery of a temporary issue:

The odd phrasing in discussion of this, both by the team and by Astros writers, was that the injection was designed to "get him through the season." If the injection has this specific design, is there an underlying problem that will need correction in the off-season, or is this just an odd turn of phrase by Wade that was passed on in the articles? I'm relatively sure it's the former.

Having had my fair share of cortisone injections, I can sum how they work pretty well: They make whatever the affected area is feel like it’s at 120% strength for a few days, then like it’s 100-90% for a week or two, and by the time you get to about six weeks out, you’re probably worse off then when you started. Why? Because you were able to do overdue everything because you couldn’t feel what you were doing. In my mind, a cortisone injection is a last ditch option for desperate times. Roy Oswalt’s situation with the Astros is not desperate, nor is there a need for last ditch attempts at getting Roy start a game before the All-Star break. If anything, the Astros need Roy Oswalt to get healthy, pitch very well to finish the season, and then try and move him in the off season for the maximum amount of blue-chip prospects they can obtain. But, more to the point of connecting the dots, if there is a larger issue at hand, which Carroll suggests, then we have to wonder if this is the princess’ pea that has brought on Roy Oswalt’s pitching struggles this year. To me, it sounds very plausible, but I also just desperately want to find an answer.

As bothersome as the ineptitude with which the Astros seem to be handling this issue is, what’s more bothersome is the overall issue that the Astros have with keeping pitchers healthy. It seems that if you come up through our system or spend a decent period of time with the team, you’re bound to start getting nagging (read mechanical related) injuries or you’re going to have a major surgery. Here’s quick list of the top of my head:

1)Backe
2) Hirsch
3)Patton
4)Albers
5)Nieve
6)Paulino
7)Roy Oswalt

And that is just they last two years. The Astros are an organization with a lot of problems, they have bloated contracts at the major league level, the worst farm system, and apparently the inability to maintain and develop their most prized pieces, pitchers, effectively or at all. Again, I can’t speak to the quality of the Astros medical staff, but I can generalize about the Astros organizational approach to the health of its players: it doesn’t make very good, long-term decisions about how proceed when hiccups, nags, and other injuries that pop up during the course of a season. They love to push the envelope too much because, in the organizations view, every year is 2005. I know that reading around from baseball injury analysts, I never hear good things about the Astros organizational approach to injuries and injury prevention and that’s a problem that the Astros can ill afford moving forward.

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