What numbers can tell us

Cecil Cooper made the decision that with Wandy Rodriguez re-joining the rotation, Chris Sampson would lose his spot as a starter, and be added to the bullpen. Brian Moehler will keep his place as the team's fifth starter. Both have pitched well in stretches, and have done a great deal to help propel the team to a 24-11 strech after a 6-12 start. Fernando Nieve was sent down to Round Rock, with Jack Cassel getting the call-up.

These moves concerning our pitching staff seem to have ignited some heated discussion around town. Driving to work every morning, the talk radio shows love to ask the question, "What's more important- pitching or hitting?" First off, as Astros fans, we should be hestitant to ever think that pitching isn't as important as hitting. Scoring runs is always beneficial to a club's chances at playing well, but with an OBP as low as ours is, there will be stretches where runs are hard to come by. Pitching needs to be a constant to counteract the fickle nature of getting hits and scoring runs. What I'd like to compare and make some inferences from, are the performances of our 2005 NL Champion team, the Cardinals championship team from 2006 and the 2004 and 2007 Boston Red Sox World Series teams. From this, maybe we can get a better idea of how this club will down the stretch.


2008 Houston Astros

Team OBP...(.329-9th in the NL)
Team SLG...(.426-6th in the NL)
Team OPS+..(103)
Team Runs Scored...(261-4th in the NL)

Team ERA...(4.49-12th in the NL)
Team ERA+..(93)
Team SO....(341-10th in the NL)
Team BB....(161-2nd in the NL)*

*This positive stat is down-graded in its importance by the league leading75 HRs that the staff has given up.

2005 Houston Astros

Team OBP...(.322-12th in the NL)
Team SLG...(.408-11th in the NL)
Team OPS+..(95)
Team Runs Scored...(693- 11th in the NL)

Team ERA...(3.51-2nd in the NL)
Team ERA+..(120)
Team SO....(1164-3rd in the NL)
Team BB....(440-1st in the NL)

What really surprised me is that their .730 team OPS is not that far from what this year's club is doing. That fact was balanced by a staff which featured three starters who had sub 3 ERA's, and a closer that struck out over 100 batters in just 70 2/3 innings of work. A lot of negatives can be covered up by strong pitching, and the 2005 Astros are a perfect example of that.

2006 St. Louis Cardinals

Team OBP...(.337-5th in the NL)
Team SLG...(.431-8th in the NL)
Team OPS+..(101)
Team Runs Scored...(781- 6th in the NL)

Team ERA...(4.54-9th in the NL)
Team ERA+..(98)
Team SO....(970-14th in the NL)
Team BB....(504-5th in the NL)

This is the team that will forever-more be referenced when someone tries to make a claim that their team can win a championship. Looking at their numbers, one can see why. The 2006 Cards were average in a few of the most important statistical categories, but were awful as far as striking opposing batters out and were below average in team ERA. Seriously. Everything that usually spells disaster happened to this team, and they still won it all. Look at their records in various situations. One run games, interdivisional games, second half record. Maybe there is legitimate hope that the Astros can win it all this year.

2004 Boston Red

Team OBP...(.360-1st in the AL)
Team SLG...(.472-1st in the AL)
Team OPS+..(111)
Team Runs Scored...(949- 1st in the AL)

Team ERA...(4.18-3rd in the AL)
Team ERA+..(116)
Team SO....(1132-2nd in the NL)
Team BB....(447-3rd in the NL)

This team did Bill James proud. An .832 OPS. 949 runs scored. Impressive to say the least. True, they are an AL club that plays in extremely hitter friendly Fenway Park, as evidenced by their rather mediocre in comparison team OPS+ of 111, but these are numbers that can take a team to the playoffs (almost) regardless of their pitching. Thing is- their staff was very good. They pitched half their games in that same park, and managed to have the third best ERA in the league. Their K/BB rate as a staff was exceptional. Perhaps this team isn't the best to draw comparisons from, as fate/the end of curses/karma possibly had something to do with their winning it all. Hocus Pokus aside, this was a very good team that had perhaps the best assemblege of hitters (based on OBP) ever.

2007 Boston Red Sox

Team OBP...(.362-2nd in the AL)
Team SLG...(.444-3rd in the AL)
Team OPS+..(107)
Team Runs Scored...(867- 1st in the AL)

Team ERA...(3.87-1st in the AL)
Team ERA+..(123)
Team SO....(1149-3rd in the NL)
Team BB....(482-5th in the NL)

Again, a very good squad. Not as much pop offensively, but their pitching staff was dominant at times. Josh Beckett emerged as one of the best post season pitchers of our generation, after adding his impressive 2007 campaign to his 2003 run while a member of the Florida Marlins. Like the 2005 White Sox, the 2007 Red Sox had a hot bullpen who did not surrender leads, and a closer who seemed Mariano-esque at times.

Conclusions, if any

What can we glean from these teams? Well, besides the anomally that are the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, pitching is the common demoniator for reaching and winning a World Series. Specifically, we know that having power pitching correlates strongly to winning in the post season.(Baseball Between the Numbers) As per the post yesterday, the 2008 Astros chances at prolonged success are not favored by the statistics complied thus far, but they have played winning ball through nearly 1/3 of the season. It would be wrong to say that unless a team has an OBP of "x" or an ERA+ of "y", there is no chance for them to advance to the post season, or win a World Series. Whether the 'Stros win if they get there goes beyond the numbers to a great extent.

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