Reporting the Facts

Note: This is our centennial post.

This probably comes off as fair-weatheredness following a trouncing by the big bats of Philly, but it’s been something I’ve been tracking for two weeks, and it seems to be a trend that is holding. The Astros are a lucky team right now. As you’ll recall, I’ve touched on XW-L formula’s serval times this season, specifically here and here. The ‘Stros currently sit on a 29-23 record, good for 3rd in the NL Central -- a scant 1.5 games behind the first place Cubs. However, using PW-L from The Hardball Times, we see that the NL Central’s standings look a little different. The Astros own a PW-L record of 26-26, the Cubs a 32-18 record. That’s big difference. That’s a meaningful difference too if it’s attributable to luck and luck alone.

Thankfully, I don’t believe it necessarilly is all luck. While the Astros triple split of: .266/.327/.426 is a solid line that has produced a 4.87 R/G, the pitching staff has allowed 4.79 R.G (note: this does not include Sunday’s trouncing, it seemed like it would just skew the data too much). This is why our PW-L recorde calls for us to be a .500 team, which intutitevely makes sense (If you really want to kill the buzz of the Astros contending, you can look at the more detailed adjusted W-L records from Baseball Prospectus. Our saving grace has been our ability to make our hits count which is evident by our NL leading BA/RISP of .286 compared to our actuall .266 AVG. 50+ games into the season, it seems fair to say that we much just have some sort of element of clutchness on our team (something that might just acount for the difference in our W-L and adjusted W-L records). However, our entire pitching staff’s inability to keep the ball in the park, stands to wreck our offense’s chances of winning balls games for us, as we continue to lead MLB with 1.4 HR/9. Combined with below averagae K/9 and BB/9, the HR have to stop or it won't matter how good our bats and gloves are.

It just food for thought, something to keep an eye on and be aware of. We’ve seen some special performances so far this season and it’s a team with the talent to keep pulling it off. Our pitching has to hold or we’ll become a .500 team with no real shot at contending quickly (or worse of you look at the 3rd order wins at BPro). I believe the ‘Stros are contenders, but I felt like I owed it to anyone who reads this blog to apprise them of what the numbers say.

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