Examing the Wizard: The May Report

In April, we looked at Roy Oswalts’ struggles and determined that it wasn’t his fastball’s velocity that was hurting him, it was that his curve ball, just simply wasn’t curving. Well over a month has passed, and Roy Oswalt is still sporting a 5.61 ERA. While his ERA is inflated, his K-related rate stats have been solid: 6.9 K/9, 2.94 K/BB. It's the hits and the HR that's are killing him: 11.08 H/9 and 1.96 HR/9.

So, what’s changed? Last time we noted that his curve was flat. Looking again at his pitch/fx data from 2007 and 2008 we can see that there some disticnt changes to Roy’s pitches. The fast ball is 1/2 MPH slower, broke 9.51" down in 2007, but only 7.51" down in 2008. That's a significant amount of elevation to his fastaball. Roy's curve is now breaking as far down as it did 2007 (the red flag we sounded in our last post), but only moving away from RHB 4.33", where as in 2007 it broke 6.69 away, a 2.33" difference. So it's staying closer to RHB and not getting in as much on LHB, both if which makes easier to get wood on. Both of these 2" changes are very much the differnce between a swinging strike or a meekly hit ball, and an absolutely crushed ball. His slider has been even worse. In 2007 it broke 3.74" away from a RHB while dropping 2.46". However, in 2008 it's only breaking 1.86" away from RHB and only dropping 1.78" down -- I believe the term is hanging slider. Yet he’s throwing it at a much higher percentage, 17% this year compared to 14% in 2007. It’s an absolutely crushable pitch, and it might explain his unprecedented 15 HR surrendered.

In attempting to explain why it is that his pitches aren’t breaking as well as the used to, we’ve discerned a small, but perhaps meaninful difference in his release point.

2007 Release Points:


2008 Release Points:



It appears that, perhaps, in an effort not to tip his pitches, Roy is trying keep his release point constant. Our guess is that by tightening it release point up, he’s losing life from his pitches.

So there you go, impress your friends and family with your new found knowledge.

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