The Astros, They're So Hot Right Now

Incase my lame movie reference failed, it's Mugatu from Zoolander. Ok, Pop-culture references will be shelved now. For we college students, it's officially summer and the Astros have continued sizzle--big time. Lance is setting all sorts of records for his streak and thus far has exhibited no signs of cooling off, though a nagging leg injury could spell cooler temperatures for Lance. While Lance has been the main attraction with his bat, we should not overlook the fact that Lance has been, to date, the best defensive first baseman in all of MLB, with an outstanding RZR of .926. Yes, not only has Lance hit better than everyone in MLB, he's also played better defense than anyone at his position, including the much lauded Albert Pujols (the guy who won the gold glove last year). Right now, it appears that the NL MVP award is a two man race between Berkman and Utley, however, it is only mid-May, but an exciting prospect none-the-less.

However, while we could analyze Lance's bat and glove all day, the thing I want to focus on today, is the Astros as a team. We've done a few 10-Game Recaps, trying to analyze the changes in key stats that allow us to predict where the Astros fortunes might end up. These, however, have been pretty skin deep, with a focus on Offense and pitching only. So today, I'm going to attempt to break down the Astros as a Team, in lieu of doing another 10 Game Recap tomorrow, as they seem to have a very tepid response so far. I'm using stats available from the Hard Ball Times, an excellent site that provides a treasure trove of statistics, research, and analysis for free.

Courtesy of the Hardball Times' Team Reports, a look at the Astros record in terms of XW-L reveals that Astros are not a product of luck and their 22-17 record is in line with their runs scored/allowed. This good news, but looking at the Cubs and Cardinals record is a mixed bag of news. The Good News: The Cardinals are 1 game ahead of their XW-L, and in general seem to be due to come back to earth, and probably already are. That fact puts the Astros in 2nd place in the NL Central. However, the Bad News: the Cubs are 2 games below their XW-L, and should instead be at 25-13, making us 3.5 games behind the NL Central leader is hypothetical terms.

Breaking down the offense, we can see that the Astros are improving their OBP, but are still below league average with .321 mark, but by being 5th in the NL in slugging (.422) they've managed to post a league average OPS of .743, and keep the offense moving, simply by hitting the tar out of the baseball. While OBP is down, it is interesting to note that the Astros are 7th in the NL (and exactly league average) at P/PA (pitches per plate appearance) 3.82 P/PA. That's a pretty good rate and portends to either a higher BB% or is just a indication that they seem to have be able work the count, waiting for the right pitch. Either way, it assuages fears that our offense will collapse. Perhaps cautionary, the 'Stros have hit .292 with RISP and only .265 overall. Maybe they're exhibiting clutchness or it could be harbinger of a deflating offense unless the hits keep coming when we have men on.

The one thing that we have overlooked this year when talking about pitching, is how much this team is getting killed by the long ball. We have well above average K/9 (7.0), better than average BB/9 (3.3), and are league average in GB% (44%) and LD% (19%), we've even stranded more runners than any other pitching staff in the league with a LOB% of 77%, but when it comes to HR/8 we're tops with 1.3 HR/9. Correlated to that, we also lead the league in .SLG allowed with .453, well above the league average of .408. I'm at a loss to explain the HR's, because we have excellent rate stats that indicate strong control. I guess when we're making mistakes, we're just getting punished for them big time. I'd imagine that this has to be a fluke of some sort, and via mechanics being corrected or luck evening out, will drop. As such, given our strong rate stats, the staff appears to be much better than expected so far and due for some improvement in the ERA department.

Finally, and what I feel is the most important part of this team that has been overlooked, is their defense. The team owns a .847 RZR, which is second in the NL, second only to the Cardinals. It's been outstanding so far, especially given all the pre-season doubts about Tejada's glove, Bourn's maturity in the field, and Carlos' waist-line. Speaking of Lee and Bourn, consider this the fact that Astros own an above average Out-Field RZR in the NL with a .910, while having the second worst LFer (Lee, RZR of .804). The infield is tied for second in the NL with an RZR of .810, second again to the Cardinals. Over the off-season, we observed a few Astros-centric blogs, and one in particular, that chastised this teams defense over and over again. Their main fears were that Lance was a bad 1B, Tejada would look like Carlos Lee at SS, and that the hot corner would be devoid of anything you could begin to call adequate defense. Tejada has posted a .873 RZR (good for 3rd in the NL behind the injured Tulowitzki and the Brave’s Yunel Escobar), Lance, as we already mentioned is the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, and the hot corner has been average (Wigginton .711) to above average (Blum .756).

So here’s the quick and dirty of it: This team has been getting the hits that count, when they count, which so long as their plate discipline remains, should hold true. Our pitching has been very good with the exception of the long ball, which one has to assume that will even out of the season--leaving just solid pitching. Our gloves have been great; they’ve been exceptional in some areas, average in others, and just pitiful for Carlos Lee. This looks like a team that is capable of staying the course, they’re confident, capable of winning games in any way (just look at the Dodgers series) and if anything, have room for some improvement still. In sum, we look like a contender, which in the end is all we could hope for and more than a lot of us expected.

Sphere: Related Content