2nd 10 Game Recap: Finding Solid Ground

Since we waited an extra day, you guys get a bonus 11 Game Recap...that also means we get to do less work the next time around (9 games).

In this eleven game span, we’ve been 6-5, a marked improvement from the last time we reported in this fashion. Our XW-L is 10-11 on the season, while we really stand at 9-12. Things seem to have evened out in the luck department -- just slightly the opposite of what we’d hoped for, but hey, we should still be a win better than we are. AND if you look at the NL Central’s XW-L record, we’re only trailing the Cubs by 3.5 games (Cubs XW-L 13-7). So, 21 games in, we’re still in the thick of it -- in theory.

Aside from XW-L records, what can the numbers tell us about our team and how they’ve been playing 21 games into the season.

We’ll shake things up this time and lead-off with:

Starting Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	GB%	E(W)	E(L)
Last 11 Games	58.7	4	3	45	22	6.90	2.05	4.76	.290	44%	3.9	3.8
1st 10 Games	58	0	4	36	18	5.59	2	4.03	.303	44%	1.9	3.7
2008	116.7	4	7	81	40	6.25	2.03>	4.40	.305	44%	7	7

In the last 11 games, we’ve seen our starters BABIP fall right in line with the league average, which is good, however, it is important to note that in that time frame, Backe’s BABIP in this was .327, which is easily explained by/explains his poor outing in Philly. It is frustrating to have an overall record of 4-7 for your starters, when they’ve pitched well enough to be 7-7, but we’ll leave much of that analysis for the bull pen. Our peripherals have been remarkably consistent, which is an early indicator that what we’re seeing so far, is probably what we’re going to get, with the exception. Of course, with the exception of Roy who should continue averaging out his poor start with performances more in line with his talent, as we mentioned earlier.

Relief Pitching
Stats	IP	W	L	SV	K	BB	K/9	K/BB	ERA	BABIP	BB/9	H/9
Last 11 Games	37.7	2	2	2	35	12	8.36	2.91	4.78	.293	2.87	9.8
1st 10 Games	27	3	3	1	19	12	6.33	2.03	5.67	.379	4	12.33
2008	64.7	5	5	3	54	24	7.52	2.25	5.15	.328	3.34	10.86

The W, L, and Saves columns are pretty straight forward, if you’ve been watching the games. The two columns that should give every Astros fan hope is the BABIP, K/9, and K/BB. Our peripherals have improved dramatically in the last 11 games compared to the first and the BABIP has dropped to a very sustainable level. While a 4.76 ERA is certainly not what everyone was hoping from this bull pen, it is necessary to note that if you take away Brocail’s shelling last night, the ERA probably isn’t all that bad. What I am trying to say is, things seem to be stabilizing and at this stable state, the Astros’ bull pen looks solid.

Hitting
Stats	PA	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	OPS	ISO	K:BB
Last 12 Games	426	66	13	61	41	62	.286	.357	.809	.167	1.51
1st 10 Games	339	36	11	34	22	56	.232	.286	.707	.190	3.65
2008	765	102	24	95	63	118	.261	.325	.764	.177	1.87

For those who've been keeping up, sorry that it took an extra day to get the hitting data in. Due to our ineptitude, we're giving you a bonus game in the hitting because the method we're using to get the stats can't spit out specific game sets...our bad. But in the end, it's probably good because it gives us a chance to see what the Astros have been doing as they began to heat up. The stat that immediately pops out is the .OBP which is a tremendous .357 -- for a team OBP that's outstanding. The leading indicator, if you're going to simply choose a single stat, for run production is OBP, because you can't score anyone if they're not on base -- unless Adam Dunn is all nine of your hitters and just crushing solo shots. While that team OBP seems high, in reality it shouldn't fall too much. Last time, we reported that our projected team OBP is .344, meaning we shouldn't see too much of a drop off in run production. While it correlates to OBP, our vastly decreased K:BB ratio for our hitters is also a number that portends to more good things, because it indicates that our hitters are being very patient and selective -- hopefully that holds. There is reason to believe that it will as the number of PA our team has is inching close to most of these stats becoming statistically significant. Run production during this period has averaged 5.5 runs a game, which, again, utilizing an RC/27 formula, we predicted the line-up should produce about 5.1 runs/per game. So all in all, it appears that our hitters are beginning to settle in and perform at their true talent levels. Thus, while it is improbable to believe that the team will keep notching 8+ runs a game, we should see a steady stream of 5-6 run games as we move forward, which as the pitchers find their grove should put us in the position to stay in contention in the NL Central.

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