We’re about to start a series against the best team in all of MLB right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite only having been in existence for a decade, the Arizona Diamondbacks should serve as a lesson to this team, which will soon be undergoing a rebuilding process that will spell success or dismal failure for this team for many years to come. After their meteoric rise to World Champions in 2001 and a second division title the following year (2002), the Diamondbacks declined to a awful 51-111 in 2004 to be THE worst team in MLB. The cause is one that should be all to familiar to Houston Astros fans at this point: being unable to get out from under free agent contracts that hamstrung the teams financial capabilities. However, after trading away most of their unwieldy contracts and maintaing one of the most fertile farm systems around, the Diamondbacks are poised for success for the next few years.
This June, the newly remolded front office will conduct its first amateur draft and it has a lucrative #10 pick, followed by the #52 pick (click to see the full draft board). The draft marks an important step in trying to rebuild our utterly barren farm system and it’s our highest draft pick since Chris Burke in 2001. There is already a lot of speculation going on about the draft (though thank God it’s not the asinine degree to which ESPN hypes the NFL draft...). Jim Callis of Baseball America recently answered a mailbag question about how the Astros should utilize their first two picks and I liked what he had to say (if you actually click the link, you’re going to have to scroll down to the bottom). Essentially he said take the highest available talent with the 10th pick and then try to find a value college-pitcher with the 52nd. I like this for two reasons: By taking the top talent, we’d add some value to our farm system, which could be used to produce home-grown talent or as a trade chip later down the line. Secondly, by taking a undervalued college pitcher in the second round, we’d be getting an arm for our team that is far more proven and seasoned than a high school pitcher -- also much less cost then the high school pitcher. Meaning we’d hopefully get a talented arm up to the majors in as little as 2 1/2 to 3 years (if he can survive the injury nexus that is). Callis feels that Drayton will not break with the MLB’s slotting guidelines and as such will not pay big money to sign talent that falls due to its asking price. I cannot think of a worse mistake we could make in the draft than to let the best available talent go because of some gentlemen’s agreement and a few hundred-thousand dollars. Hopefully Ed Wade, et al., will be able to persuade Drayton to pony up some cash and step on some feet, or else we could be in for a long five-six years.
As you see the likes of Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young take the field over the next few days, pray that our farm system can produce such talent in the next three to four years. June 5th, 2008 will be a monumental date in the Astros’ franchise history, it can either be for good reasons or utterly depressing reasons; let hope the next three days might be a preview of our future.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Show Someone the Money (Astros Draft Preview)
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2 comments:
To put some perspective behind those two picks at 10 and 52, you really dont have to look farther than our own high school district in 2005. That year the Reds took outfielder Jay Bruce out of Beaumont Westbrook with the 15th overall and he should see the majors by mid year. 52 is exactly where Whittleman went. So if they go after a batter, you can hope for a 3-4 year minor leaguer. A pitcher at that position could be anywhere from 2 -5 year minor leaguer. I think the most important thing the astros need to do is stop signing these "Tier 1" free agents. Carlos Lee is a good player, but Woody Williams was not. And the astros in the past years keep signing these mediocre players in bad free agent markets. And each one of those guys costs us a first rounder when we sign one. I would love to see the stros build up a farm system like we used to have. Unfortunately being in the central is almost a blessing and a curse. It is the worst division in baseball, so it is definitely winnable, but that means every year we make these mediocre moves to try to win the central, as opposed to trying to win the NL or even the World Series.
Side note, looking at Zito, Mulder, and Hudson (who has been struggling lately) its uncanny how good Billy Beane is at valuing pitchers. Furthermore, look at Danny Haren, Beane knew he would be good, so trade him before his contract runs out and get something for him.
The amazing thing about Haren is that Beane got Haren for Mulder and then flipped Haren for FOUR high tier prospects. Just think about that. When you take Haren out because he got traded, but not after some stellar years for the A's, Beane got six prospects for Mulder. I wish that we that kind of pure intelligence and savvy in our organization the last four years...but alas.
You're dead on the money with the signing of Type A free agents. Also again with being dead on about the Central, just look at the Cardinals and our farm system (30th and 29th in the league). With the Reds being in the basement for so many years they suddenly are just stocked with talent because they haven't played to win every year for the last five.
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