Playing by "The Book"

Yesterday, I had the very delightful treat of sitting 4 rows back on the third-base line, just passed the Rockies Dugout. The seats were excellent, the company the best, and the Astros come-back victory was frustrating, but incredible. While I could hem and haw about how I don't like the current line-up, in the end, line-ups aren't that important (see: Billy Martin). Instead, I'm going to focus on the bottom of the 8th.

Brian Fuentes came into the ball game, which was a good omen for me, because the last time I was at Minute Maid and he came into the ball game, Mark Loretta hit a walk-off HR. His first batter, Hunter Pence. If ever Pence was going to get a big hit, it was against the erratic lefty, and after a 1-2 count, he hit a flier into Center for a single. In comes JR Towles, he of the .429/.636/.857 split stat against lefties, with the Astros looking at a .783 Run-Expectancy (the number of runs expected to score, given the historic data of runner's scoring in that exact game state, in this case, a runner on 1st, with no outs) and a Win-Expectancy of 41.1% (meaning that historically, a home team trailing by two-runs in the bottom of the 8th inning that get their lead runner on with no outs have gone on to win 41.1% of the time). So in steps a man who slugs over .800 against lefties, hits of .400 against lefties, and gets on base an astounding 64% of the time...AGAINST LEFTIES. Seriously, just read through line again...that makes Barry Bonds drool. So what does Coop do...he throws the book at Fuentes and calls for the Sac-Bunt.

ANECDOTE: So I see Towles square to bunt, and an a few obscenities fly. My virulent anger is further stoked by the fact that the numbers I just quoted you loomed on the jumbotron in Right as JR squared to bunt. My question is: Does Coop need his Rx changed on the glasses, because as I saw it we had a man who crushes lefties, facing a a lefty who is known for his struggles; what more could the man ask for? Everyone around me was perplexed and I will now attempt to explain:

a)Why I was livid
and
b)Exactly how lucky we got

So Towles drops down a bunt, is thrown out at first and Pence is safe at second. The Astros now had a Run-Expectancy (RE) of .699 and Win-Expectancy (WE) of 36.6%. We let a person who has just one of the most distinct split-stats possible against Left-Handed Pitching drop down and sacrifice bunt to decrease our odds of tying the game and decrease our odds of winning the game, while facing a LEFT-HANDED PITCHER!!! On what planet does that make sense? Say Towles simply got a hit, or just a walk that moves Pence to second with no outs, our RE would have been 1.38, meaning we would have doubled the RE.

There we were, Pence on Second, 1 out, and in comes Mark Loretta to Pinch-Hit, he draws a 4-0 BB, which because it was the sloppiest pitching of the day, incensed me even more, given that we WASTED an out when Fuentes was struggles-city. So with Loretta on First and Pence still on second, the WE goes to 41.2%. Please think about that for a second. We wasted an out to get back to the exact same WE. We also wasted an out to get the RE to .888. So one out later we've added to the probability that we'll tie the game, marginally.

In comes Michael Bourn, who as a left-handed hitter has .179/.273/.503 against left-handed pitching...Mario Mendoza, eat your heart out. I guess it's hard to fault Coop for not pinch-hitting for Bourn given that I can't think of who we could have put up there and Bourn's obvious defensive value...but still, I'm hung up on the fact that he made Towles create an out when Towles CRUSHES lefties. So Bourn, grounds into a 1-3, but moves Loretta and Pence over. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs. The RE is .611. Yes, we are now at the lowest point of the inning as far as RE goes, and our WE is 34%. Are you beginning to comprehend the insane cost of that Sac-Bunt and of that precious out that was WASTED?

What happened next could be called clutch, but I've already done a far bit of talking about clutch and luck, so I'm calling it Luck. Kaz Matsui worked the count full and then banged out a single to left field. Hunter Pence and Mark Loretta score. Our WE sky-rockets from 34% to 84% on that single. Remember too that we had an expected Run value of .611 runs, and managed to drive in two, and the later 3 on Tejada's double. We got insanely lucky. Just look at the graph of our WE throughout the game. Whether you believe in clutch or luck, you have to admit, what happened was highly improbable (which, of course, the numbers attest too). 2-out rallies happen, but they're luck more than skill. Players who crush left-handed pitching generally crush left-handed pitching, no matter what.

Of course everyone who had heard me curse Cecil Cooper for calling for that bunt gave me some form of a smug-I-told-you-so type look, but at least you and I know that we just lucked out. More than that we all have a better appreciation for the supreme value of an out.

Sources:
http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2008-04-20&team=Astros&dh=0
http://www.baseball-analysis.com/article.php?articleid=4842

**UPDATE**
Wholly unrelated to the post, but absolutely incredible nonetheless:

The Best Chicago Cubs rant, EVER

Sphere: Related Content