The exit of Brad Lidge and the re-emergence ofDan Wheeler as Astros closer mean a couple of different things for this team. For one it seems like the team is being forced to replace one of its more consistent performers with one who’s been maddeningly inconsistent.
Delving deeper in Wheels’ most recent ten appearances, he has pitched 8 2/3 innings, and given up a staggering 13 runs. That those runs came in only four games during this stretch is odd to say the least. We wrote about Brad Lidge’s inabilities to get himself out of trouble and avoid the big inning earlier this season. It’s now gotten to the point where both Houston closers have been forced to deal with the same issues, and the criticisms that come along with them.
If this team has any chance at making this a memorable season for the right reasons, it is imperative that Dan Wheeler come in and start to right himself. As was evidenced on Monday night, our bullpen is public enemy number one right now. Losing our best arm will hurt, but not as much as we all might believe, or more accurately, fear.
For instance looking at both players FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), Dan Wheeler is at 3.61, and Brad Lidge has a 3.00. This statistic takes into account how well a pitcher does as far categories that he can control- strikeouts, walks and homeruns. It is startling to see just how much Wheeler improves, while Lidge remains about the same. A valid conclusion seems to be that the Astros less than stellar defense has hurt the Dan Wheeler much more than it has Brad Lidge. This stands to reason, as Lidge strikes 1 more batter per nine innings than Wheeler, and gives up fewer HR/9 innings, .9 vs. 1.2.
The FIP of these players indicates, then, that the Astros defense has hurt Dan Wheeler while not affecting Brad Lidge all that much. For what it’s worth, those gifted individuals at Baseball Prospectus have figured out that the hits and runs above average for Dan Wheeler is exceptionally high, while being the opposite for Brad Lidge.
For those that adhere to the BABIP philosophy, the often times ungraspable concept that the pitcher who throws the baseball has little to nothing to do with it once it is hit in play should be delighted to see that Wheeler’s “bad luck” in this regard correlates well with his FIP that was mentioned in the previous paragraph. Wheels has blown a number of games of late for the Astros, but his luck and his performance on the mound is slated to change for the better.
This is not to say that Dan Wheeler bears no blame for his horrible month of June. The closer’s role is one where everything is magnified (he can ask his buddy Brad to confirm that one, if he wants to), so when 44 percent of his inherited runners cross the pay station while he’s on the mound, he adds to his troubles. He didn’t create the mess for himself, but as the literal last line of defense, it’s his job to clean it up.
The second point that needs to be addressed as Brad Lidge is put on the DL, is his tradability is diminished. True, Tim Purpura may be the one of the more conservative general managers in baseball, but if given the chance to swap Lidge for a young outfielder and catcher, he would have to be extremely foolish not to strongly consider making that deal a reality.
This team should look to move Lidge because he is one of the few attractive pieces that this team can deal before the July 31st trade deadline. Instead of looking to move pieces to acquire another bat for the home stretch, the Astros should be thinking in reverse. The most viable and cost effective way to win in today’s baseball climate is from within. Building a minor league system that is among the poorest in baseball should be at the top of the Astros to do list, not just starting in October, but right now. Lidge is not the dominant arm that he used to be. He may approach the numbers that he piled up in 2004 and 2005, but it should not be with this team. Assuming that he can come back healthy and show that he doesn’t feel any ill-effects of his oblique injury, the time is now to get something in return for a man who two months ago people (me) wanted to be released outright or shipped down to the farm to work with Nolan.
Wednesday, June 20, 2007
Wheelin’ on In
How Bad is It???
Adam Everett is gone, Brad Lidge is down for the count too. So, what's the damage? Today we'll focus on Adam Everett.
I think the past few games have had just about every Astros fan wishing fervently that Carlos Lee had even less speed than exhibited or had just stopped running -- though, to be fair Adam could have stopped too when he saw the big man lumbering towards him like a freight train. Two post's ago, I posted some data pertaining the number of runs above/below average that the Astros were providing the Astros. Adam Everett was leading in the team by with the lowest number of runs with a negative 14 runs provided for what could be expected of an average shortstop. After that post, I realized that I had perhaps made an error in analyzing the team in a MLV fashion because it uses an "average" player as the baseline of comparison. VORP, the measure of what a replacement player could provide would have been the most correct stat to use. However, given that the Astros have decided to move Mark Loretta into the shortstop role until Adam's leg heals, with Bruntlett only coming off the bench in late game situations to provide some defense, I will continue to utilize MLV because of Loretta's offensive prowess.
So what have the Astros lost with Adam Everett down for the count. First let's look at what has happened line-up wise as the result of Adam's departure:
1) Loretta has slid over to Short Stop
This has opened up his previous spot of Third or Second so:
2) Mike Lamb has full-time starters role at either Third or First
The rotation between third a first works in this platoon fashion
3) When Mike Lamb plays First, Morgan Ensberg plays Third and Lance Berkman is in Right field (This will not happen very often)
or
4) When Mike Lamb plays Third, Lance Berkman plays first and Luke Scott/Chris Burke play right field.
So in order to look at the full impact of Adam Everett being lost, we need to look at primarily at two things in my mind's eye:
1) Run differential in defense between Loretta and Everett at Short Stop
Adam Everett has saved 15 runs from scoring in 63 games a shortstop giving him a rate of .238 runs saved/game, while Mark Loretta has allowed 5 runs to score in 13 games giving him -.385 runs saved/game. Over this 40 game period this what we get:
(Adam Everett: .238 runs saved/game x 40 games = 9.52 runs
-
(Mark Loretta: -.385 runs saved/game x 40 games = -15.4 runs)
~= 25 runs
2) Run differential in offense between Mike Lamb and Adam Everett
Mike Lamb currently owns an MLVr .260 and Adam Everett an MLVr of -.241. Assuming that Adam Everett is gone for 40 games gives us this run differential:
(Mike Lamb: .260MLVr x 40 games = 10.4 runs)
-
(Adam Everett: -.241MLVr x 40 games = -9.64 runs) ~= 20 runs
3) Run differential between Morgan Ensberg losing, what I am assuming to be about 15 starts at 3rd in this time:
Morgan's MLVr -.099 x 15 games = 1.49 runs that we won't lose
Totaling all the runs, and we get:
-25 runs in defense + 21.5 runs in offense gained = -3.5 runs
So when all is said in done, the Astros are out 3.5 runs, or about a 1/3 of a win. So while there is a huge defensive hole in our team, the offense we gain from Adam's bat being taken out of the line up is almost enough to offset the loss of his glove.
Disclaimer: Another area I thought to analyze was the fact that with Loretta not getting a share of the Second Base starts gives Craig more playing time. However, I figured that with Craig so close, he'd probably get the lion's share anyhow. Also, all of this could change when Craig get's his hits and Bruntlett comes in, then we have to analyze things from VORP factor, but we'll cross that bridge…if at all, when we get there. Also, the defensive differences between the rotating Right Field couldn't be analyzed because there isn't a statistically significant or available amount of date on Lance, Luke, and Chris. Though Lance currently has a better defensive run rate than Luke (just not statistically significant at this point). Lance and Mike are identical first baseman defensively…just about.
Sources:
http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=206623
http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/Zone_Ratings_-_June_14,_2007.xls
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Dear Phil Garner,
There are times that I honestly wonder what makes you tick. Be it Craig leading off, be it having faith in Orlando Pal-shouldn't have a job-o, or letting Trever Miller pitch, you just DON'T make sense most of the time. I know you like to think yourself crafty as I can oft perfectly envision the cogs running in your head as you throw you the book of convention for silly things like pulling the starter who has been dealing all night and has a low pitch count, or having faith in your boys from Detroit.
If you were crafty Craig would be waaaaaay down in the line-up, Trever Miller and Orlando Palmeiro would NOT have jobs, and you'd go up to Carlos Lee and whisper this sweet nothing in his ear, "when there are runners on base...stop swinging until further instructed." You're a professional baseball manager, you are paid handsomely to a)know your team and the game of baseball, and b)make SMART decisions accordingly. So, from here on out, if you would just do that? I think the world might just be a better place to live. If you were crafty, you'd stop playing baseball without looking at numbers, you'd stop playing baseball by letting your LOOGEY pitcher who's allowing lefties to hit off him to pitch in LOOGEY situations. Or maybe you'd give the LOOGEY you just called up a try? Ohhhh, better yet, give up on the concept of a LOOGEY, you have far more effective relievers, use them despite their handedness.
Phil, Thomas Edison once said: insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results (I just paraphrased that. God, school still has me by the balls). Numbers can't play a baseball game, but they can tell you that an aged legend who can't hit anymore except to swing the bat as mightily as he can and PRAY that the ball won't break shouldn't lead off. How you might ask? Because his OBP is .270 something. It's not rocket science, it literally goes no further than judging "bigger or smaller" and I was watching my girlfriend's four year-old niece do that tonight. So just stop being so thick headed, yes, scrap iron was a term of endearment while you were playing, but it should not be the way you manage. Managing baseball requires you to use the gray matter between your ears; stop doing the same thing AGAIN and AGAIN.
Love,
Dome Dogs
