Now that we are about a quarter of the way through the season, I think that it's time to look at how we are doing. Specifically, I think we should look at how we are doing at the plate, something that seems to be a continuing issue for us in spite of pre-season prognostications that the plate would be the least of our concerns. In order to do this, we will use MLV's and PMLV's. PMLV, is a measure of MLV, but adjusted to account for the fact that certain positions are inclined to provide more offensive support than others. MLV is measure the number of runs that a player creates above or below the rate an average player would (i.e. a 0 MLV or PMLV means that your playing at the average). Follow the link(s) if you want to understand MLV further. Looking at (P)MLV (minimum of 50 PA's), we see that the most valuable Astros (i.e. who is paying their contracts back) look like this:

Player----------MLV------------PMLV
Carlos Lee-------11.4-------------8.1
Hunter Pence---10.5-------------9.6
Lance Berkman--3.8------------- -1.0
Mike Lamb------3.3--------------N/A
Mark Loretta----3.2--------------N/A
Luke Scott-------0.3------------ -1.2
Brad Ausmus--- -1.3------------ -0.4
Morgan Ensberg -3.7----------- -4.5
Craig Biggio---- -3.9------------ -5.8
Jason Lane---- -5.9------------ -6.5

Adam Everett -13.8----------- -14.0

There is PMLVr which is a the rate at which a player is creating these runs above his average replacement where .000 would be the average PMLVr. Utilizing this we can see who should probably be getting more plate appearances.

Player--------------MLVr---------PMLVr
Hunter Pence--------.456-----------.418
Carlos Lee-----------.240-----------.170
Mike Lamb----------.178------------N/A
Mark Loretta--------.146-----------N/A
Lance Berkman------.080---------- -.020
Luke Scott ----------.011----------- -.038
Brad Ausmus------- -.039---------- -.014
Craig Biggio--------- -.087---------- -.129
Morgan Ensberg---- -.115---------- -.140
Jason Lane--------- -.328---------- -.364

Adam Everett------ -.365---------- -.369

Looking at these numbers, forces one to scratch their heads and perhaps feel a feeling that is probably familiar to Astros fans lately: disgust. Clearly, Lance needs to start pulling his weight for us (that could be literally too given our SLG/LBS stat), because though he is contributing postively to us (MLV and MLVr), he is below the expected rate for 1B (PMLV and PMLVr). Craig needs to hurry up and hit 3000 because we are eating a big hole having to keep Lamb and Loretta out of the line up. Also, maybe we can give Brad Ausmus a break, he's not that far below the mark for what you'd expect from an average catcher.

Obviously these stats are offensive only. One has to wonder though, does Adam Everetts defenisve prowess offset a loss of 13.8 runs at a rate of -.365 a game? That is up for everyone to debate. It appears though, there is a lot the Astros could be doing to maxmize their offense in order to support a pitching staff who is carrying their weight (I am already trying figure out how to make a Pitching State/LBS). Also, consider that when the term average is used with these stats for positions, the term average denotes some who is above what the actual league average is -- it's a theoretical average player.

Source: http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=226464

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We're not worthy

Dear Loyal Dome-Dog Readers,

We are sorry for a gross negligence during that last three weeks or so. It has been a big three weeks in our lives. Evan is now a college graduate and has started a new job before he heads off to law school in the fall. Stephen has been over worked, yet fairly paid, in the Texas State Legislature as session finishes up. Evan and Stephen are facing a rough go of things because of the 180+ miles that separate the two. However, this is not to say that we plan on giving up. Just that, during these three weeks, we had to prioritize some other things in our lives (both of us think that it is kind of sad that during school we had so much more free time than we do out of school; this might have been reflected in our GPA's this semester?). Having spent some time communicating specifically on the issue of whether or not we will continue the blog, we undoubtedly have concurred that we have no desire to stop. However, our daily (when we were keeping up with it) updates will probably be a thing of the past, though who knows. Instead, will try to opt for weekly summaries, plus a few stat laden post in between order to exercise some of the knowledge that we are gleaning from Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong to use (probably the greatest book ever written, if you like baseball in the least, you should be forced to read it).

Again, we are very sorry for the pitiful display of commitment to our project that we have exhibited lately.

Love,

Evan and Stephen

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oody No More

It took more than a month’s worth of starts, but Houston native Woody Williams has his first win as pitcher for his hometown team. His key two out single scored Adam Everett (who reached on one of the Reds three errors) and gave the Astros a 3-2 advantage. The score did not change throughout the remainder of the game, as the team took the first three from Cincinnati in their four game series.

A week ago, the Astros were 10-15 and doom and gloom was apparent everywhere one looked. Winning six out of last eight games has put at least a temporary halt to all of that. In those eight games, seven have seen quality starts from Astros starters, who lead the league in that category. Lance’s slugging percentage has gone up seventy points, and that was before today’s bomb. He has homered in each of his last three games. However, it was a play yesterday that probably made Drayton McLane and Tim Purpura the happiest. After Lance was walked in the top of the first inning, Carlos Lee promptly knocked a home run. As a result of that, the Reds and other MLB teams know that if they try to avoid Lance, they’ll have to pay by facing Carlos with at least one runner on base.

With the middle of the Astros lineup doing their jobs, we wrote in an earlier entry, everybody else can settle into their roles. I don’t think we can correlate Adam Everett and Luke Scott’s recent successes to Carlos and Lance hitting the ball better, but who knows. What we do know is that this team is only one game under .500, and will be going for the sweep tomorrow.

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Lance’s Distinction

Sort of following in the same vein as yesterday’s slugging percentage per pound statistic, I heard something interesting today concerning our own Lance Berkman. Apparently, The Society for American Baseball Research has determined that if Lance approaches 600 AB’s this season, he will qualify for many records and accolades that pertain to veteran major leaguers. That being said, his projected OPS would be the highest of any switch hitter in the history of baseball. Higher than contemporaries Chipper Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Bernie Williams. More astonishing than any of those three players, is the fact that his career OPS would rank higher than that of the greatest switch-hitter of all time, Mickey Mantle. For the record, the Mick’s career OPS is .978. That makes the following almost scary:


Mickey Mantle (Career)---- Lance Berkman (through nine seasons)
OBP: .421----------------- OBP: .417
SLG%: .557------------ SLG%: .561
OPS: .978----------------OBP: .978



Mantle ended up playing for eighteen seasons, meaning that essentially, Lance would have to main his current statistics for another nine seasons. Not likely, but for a player who is underrated as Lance, it’s certainly worth throwing out there.


Didn’t miss a beat

Jason Lane justified his being played in right field in place of the uber-hot Luke Scott by collecting two hits, one of which was a two out RBI single. Safe to assume that many would be calling for Phil Garner’s head if Lane didn’t produce tonight. Thankfully for everyone involved, he did. Seeing as how the Astros were a startling 2-7 coming into today’s game against left handed starters, Lane’s efforts tonight were especially important.

Late Inning Redux

The Astros scored two runs in the seventh and another in the ninth to win their fourth straight against the Reds, 7-6. Lance and Carlos both hit taters, Hunter Pence tripled down the left field line, and the bullpen came together after a rocky 5.2 innings of work from Wandy Rodriguez. Brad Lidge was credited with the win, his second of the season.

What was most impressive, to me, was the amount of 2 out RBI’s. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman had two each, while Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg had one apiece. None more important than Ensberg’s double in the ninth the pushed the score to 7-5. The insurance run was key, as Brandon Phillips teed off on Dan Wheeler for a solo shot in the bottom of the inning.

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Scott takes a stroll, ‘Stros take the win

Thank God for the Reds. Lance improved upon his .327 career average against Cincy with a solo homerun to start off the Astros scoring. With the score tied at 2 in the eighth, Luke Scott smacked his third game winning hit against the Reds this season. He’s hitting .348 career for his career and .429 this season against Cincinnati, for the record.

Roy collected his fifth victory of the season, also continuing his career dominance of the Reds. He is now 19-1 against this team with an ERA of 2.49.

Flip side, the Reds bullpen has blown three saves against the ‘Stros, and has a tidy 10.84 ERA in six games.

Pound for Pound

With the seemingly constant struggles of our offense, and the relatively low slugging percentage of Lance, the Dome Dog brain-trust decided to create a special Astros stat, slugging percentage per pound. We applied it to those with over 70 AB’s going into today’s game:

Brad Ausmus(.392/190lbs)-.0021 (%/lb)

Carlos Lee(.479/240)-.0020

Lance Berkman(.347/220)-.0016

Craig Biggio(.465/185)-.0025

Morgan Ensberg(.375/220)-.0017

Adam Everett(.271/170)-.0016

Luke Scott(.432/210)-.0021

Chris Burke(.351/180)-.00195

This may be of no real value, but it is interesting. The winner by far is the Hall of Famer, Mr. 39 hits short of 3000 himself. What is surprising is that it’s not even close. I guess all those off-season bleacher runs at the Rice football stadium have paid off. If nothing else this stat should make Adam Everett feel better about his recent 2/23 slump.

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After a brief abberation..

More hits, less runs, same Astros. The team recorded 10 hits compared to seven for the Cards, yet were outscored, 3-1. Starter Chris Sampson couldn't make it out of the fourth inning. After a thirteen run outburst on Saturday, the cold spell hit our bats once again.

Something has to give at this point. Hunter Pence has been up in the majors for a week, and he hasn't given all that much of a jolt to the offense. Save for his first homerun of his Astro career (which was a grand slam after all), he has done little to inspire a great deal of optimism. It's only been a week, but that was enough games to get what was desired out of him- a spark. None has been given, or at least the team hasn't responded to him.

My immediate, frustrated fan's opinion is that Mark Loretta needs to play almost everyday. He may be somewhat of a defensive liability, but the man can hit. No question. Sure, we may give Adam Everett the acclaim as a gold-glove caliber shortstop, but when the man struggles to hit above the Mendoza line, problems are afoot. There's probably a good reason why Phil has hesitated to make a Loretta-Everett switch. He seems to favor a Loretta for Ensberg scenario, but that takes a fairly potent bat out of the lineup at the same time.

Luke Scott has two hits in the past two days. He also had an RBI double on Friday. This is all after the clutch double in the finale against the Reds. Once again, small sample size, but his average is 40 points higher than it was coming into the last game against Cincinnati. A roll of the dice needs to be made. Something obviously has to be done, especially in light of the news that Roger Clemens will be donning Yankee pinstripes this year. So, since Rocket will not be blasting into town on his sliver stallion, why not give a less heralded former Red Sox a chance to make a difference.

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Jazz, 103 - Rockets, 99

As a result, there will be no post today.

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What sounds wrong about this?

Woody pitched six innings, and gave up three runs. His third straight quality start. In comes Brad Lidge, who at the time this article is being written, has pitched 2 innings of scoreless ball. Overall, Bradley has not allowed in a run in 9 of his last 11 appearances. Nice recovery on his part, to say the least. At the plate, the Astros have collected nine hits through eighth innings. Humberto Quintero chipped in with a two out RBI in the fourth inning. The middle of the lineup, Lance, Carlos, Luke and Pence has gone 5 for 13 with a couple of walks. All this, and I neglected to mention that Craig recorded two hits of his own. That puts his total at 2,959 for his career. All these things individually should add up to an Astros win.

On the other side of the bill, the Cards came in having started off as poorly, 10-16 as they had at any time in club history. Adam Wainwright hadn’t been able to allow less than five runs in his past three starts. Five game losing streak, scuffling to say the least. Sure, Albert got his former teammate for a two RBI double in the fifth, but other than that…nada mucho for Prince Pujols.

The scoreboard categories are as follows in the sport of baseball:

Runs-Hits-Errors-LOB (runners left on base)
The Astros lost the first category, which in the end, is all that matters. In spite of that, the fact that the Astros had a fat 17 in the last is just as frustrating to me. Generally, one can determine the first, by looking at the last. Speaking of looking at the last, these two clubs will go at it tomorrow with the loser taking last in the NL Central.

A potentially interesting statistic popped into our heads during today’s game. More on that tomorrow.

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Familiar spot yields familiar result

Luke Scott doubled in a pair of runs in the eighth inning, plating a pair of runs, as the Astros held off the Reds, 7-5. Wandy was superb, going seven innings, striking out eight, while surrendering only two runs. Scoring was plentiful in the first- Ken Griffey, Jr homered with two outs in the top of the inning, but the Astros stormed back with three of their own in the bottom half, with Carlos and Hunter Pence collecting the RBI’s. However, the night’s turning point came in the eighth. With Chad Qualls on in relief, the Reds scored three runs of their own. If there were ever a sign that this team may be on to something, as in not playing like puppies with their tails between their legs, the Astros responded in kind. After Scott’s double, Craig collected his first hit of the game, a double, and put the Astros up by the margin they would eventually win by. Wheels came in after a bit of trouble leading off the inning, induced a clutch double play by Griffey, Jr. to close her out.

Dome Doggers and Astros fans alike should be pleased with this game for a number of reasons. Wandy came in and pitched well for the second straight appearance after getting roughed up against the Brewers a couple starts ago. He has struck out at least seven batters in each of his past three starts, including a career high eight tonight. What’s more is the consistency that we’ve seen out of him. Five out of his six starts this year have been quality outings. He is yet to record a victory, but then again, Roger won only 13 games in ’05 when he had a 1.87! So, it’s the consistency that is most important at this point.

Carlos Lee is also getting back into the swing of things, literally!! Horrible puns aside, he went three for four at the plate with two runs batted in. This is significant in that he hadn’t collected an RBI since April 28th. Less than a week ago, yes, but with this team struggling to score runs, our 100 million dollar man needed to step up, and, mercifully, he did. When Carlos contributes at the plate, everyone else can settle down into their roles. The Astros press less, and actually give themselves a decent chance to win baseball games. We here at Dome Dog’s are prone to trying to make Astros’ theorems and we have a few (ie. The Astros success in inversely proportional the my GPA and the Astros success in crucial situations is inversely proportional to the amount of clothing Stephen wears…you should have been there for Burke’s walk off in ’05) so we are now postulating a new theorem: The Astros success is directly proportional the amount of toy pony riding in the dug out.

With that we leave you with this: We’re on a winning streak.

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You’ve got that winning feeling

In spite of what perhaps were our best efforts (ie. leaving 23 runners on base) the Astros put up another W on the board improving to 11-15. We haven’t updated the blog in awhile, and while there are a myriad of reasons for this, perhaps the most glaring reason is that our blog post would have read like this:

INSERT ASTROS STARTING PITCHER pitched well tonight, yet the bats just didn’t get the job done. We left INSERT ABSURD NUMBER OF RUNNERS LEFT ON BASE so at least we know that we are getting on base…?

So lets do a bit of analysis that was inspired by Jason Stark. We both feel that in order to keep ourselves play off contenders (and thus Roger Clemens possibilities) we need to win 88 games over all. There are 136 games left thus we need to finish the season from the point on with a 77-59 record which is .566 baseball. This is do able, if the Astros just win 11 out 20 games in each 20 game set for the rest of the season and at one point when 12 of the 20 then we are at 88 wins. The question becomes…HOW?

Well we start by not leaving 20+ men on base every night…if you’re getting them on, get them off (this applies to many areas of life) and by get them off, we don’t mean by grounding into double plays. Lance Berkman needs have a higher slugging percentage than on-base percentage (.337 and .405 respectively) and Carlos Lee’s batting average cannot 40 points every ten games. We don’t mean to rain on our parade (though it is POURING here) but three runs with 23 LOB is not going to get the job done for us. Congrats Roy O, congrats Dan Wheeler, but please Astros hitters…rack up RBI’s.

Let’s look on the bright side- cause hey, we’re an optimistic blog. Nobody had a good April on this team. Not one player. Everyone stands to improve…maybe not Brad Ausmus, who is currently hitting .286! Those Dartmouth boys sure can swing the lumber. Who cares if his slugging percentage is higher than Lance’s...Roy O had his ups and downs, Woody has yet to have that one shining start that shows he still has it, Wandy, Sampson and Albers have been inconsistent. We don’t need to mention the struggles of Brad Lidge. However, the struggles of Luke Scott are a different story altogether. Mr. Scott, we as Astros fans are pleading with you. Striking out 19 times through the first month plus of the season does not bode well for the man who we are trusting to man right field. Carlos Lee has 5 RBI’s in the past 11 games. Couple that with a batting average of .193 in during that stretch, and it is easy to see why in their past six losses, the Astros have managed to score only 10 runs.

I’ll throw this out there. Maybe, as the team sits at 11-15, this is what the Astros are. There were no assurances of October glory, or even a team that could contend. A team batting average that sat at .242 as of today will not cut it. Judging by that, it’s a near miracle that the team is only four games under .500. I don’t think that they are that kind of team. Those numbers that were gone over earlier are do-able. Those predictions will be chalked up as delusions of grandeur if this team goes 1 for 10 in the win department at any time this season, again. Every team has stretches where they struggle to score runs. Not every team leaves 34 men on base during one game. When they lost that particular game in 16 innings, the frustration should have boiled over. It may have, but this team is not one to show it. I wouldn’t mind seeing somebody get angry. That would at least lead me to believe that they care. They do, they’re professionals. Professionalism doesn’t win games though. They may be the “Good Guys”, but until they start to win consistently, I’ll be attempting to contact Ty Cobb from beyond the grave to light a fire under this team.

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