Wheelin’ on In

The exit of Brad Lidge and the re-emergence ofDan Wheeler as Astros closer mean a couple of different things for this team. For one it seems like the team is being forced to replace one of its more consistent performers with one who’s been maddeningly inconsistent.

Delving deeper in Wheels’ most recent ten appearances, he has pitched 8 2/3 innings, and given up a staggering 13 runs. That those runs came in only four games during this stretch is odd to say the least. We wrote about Brad Lidge’s inabilities to get himself out of trouble and avoid the big inning earlier this season. It’s now gotten to the point where both Houston closers have been forced to deal with the same issues, and the criticisms that come along with them.

If this team has any chance at making this a memorable season for the right reasons, it is imperative that Dan Wheeler come in and start to right himself. As was evidenced on Monday night, our bullpen is public enemy number one right now. Losing our best arm will hurt, but not as much as we all might believe, or more accurately, fear.

For instance looking at both players FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), Dan Wheeler is at 3.61, and Brad Lidge has a 3.00. This statistic takes into account how well a pitcher does as far categories that he can control- strikeouts, walks and homeruns. It is startling to see just how much Wheeler improves, while Lidge remains about the same. A valid conclusion seems to be that the Astros less than stellar defense has hurt the Dan Wheeler much more than it has Brad Lidge. This stands to reason, as Lidge strikes 1 more batter per nine innings than Wheeler, and gives up fewer HR/9 innings, .9 vs. 1.2.

The FIP of these players indicates, then, that the Astros defense has hurt Dan Wheeler while not affecting Brad Lidge all that much. For what it’s worth, those gifted individuals at Baseball Prospectus have figured out that the hits and runs above average for Dan Wheeler is exceptionally high, while being the opposite for Brad Lidge.


For those that adhere to the BABIP philosophy, the often times ungraspable concept that the pitcher who throws the baseball has little to nothing to do with it once it is hit in play should be delighted to see that Wheeler’s “bad luck” in this regard correlates well with his FIP that was mentioned in the previous paragraph. Wheels has blown a number of games of late for the Astros, but his luck and his performance on the mound is slated to change for the better.

This is not to say that Dan Wheeler bears no blame for his horrible month of June. The closer’s role is one where everything is magnified (he can ask his buddy Brad to confirm that one, if he wants to), so when 44 percent of his inherited runners cross the pay station while he’s on the mound, he adds to his troubles. He didn’t create the mess for himself, but as the literal last line of defense, it’s his job to clean it up.

The second point that needs to be addressed as Brad Lidge is put on the DL, is his tradability is diminished. True, Tim Purpura may be the one of the more conservative general managers in baseball, but if given the chance to swap Lidge for a young outfielder and catcher, he would have to be extremely foolish not to strongly consider making that deal a reality.

This team should look to move Lidge because he is one of the few attractive pieces that this team can deal before the July 31st trade deadline. Instead of looking to move pieces to acquire another bat for the home stretch, the Astros should be thinking in reverse. The most viable and cost effective way to win in today’s baseball climate is from within. Building a minor league system that is among the poorest in baseball should be at the top of the Astros to do list, not just starting in October, but right now. Lidge is not the dominant arm that he used to be. He may approach the numbers that he piled up in 2004 and 2005, but it should not be with this team. Assuming that he can come back healthy and show that he doesn’t feel any ill-effects of his oblique injury, the time is now to get something in return for a man who two months ago people (me) wanted to be released outright or shipped down to the farm to work with Nolan.

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