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Friday, May 25, 2007

Now that we are about a quarter of the way through the season, I think that it's time to look at how we are doing. Specifically, I think we should look at how we are doing at the plate, something that seems to be a continuing issue for us in spite of pre-season prognostications that the plate would be the least of our concerns. In order to do this, we will use MLV's and PMLV's. PMLV, is a measure of MLV, but adjusted to account for the fact that certain positions are inclined to provide more offensive support than others. MLV is measure the number of runs that a player creates above or below the rate an average player would (i.e. a 0 MLV or PMLV means that your playing at the average). Follow the link(s) if you want to understand MLV further. Looking at (P)MLV (minimum of 50 PA's), we see that the most valuable Astros (i.e. who is paying their contracts back) look like this:

Player----------MLV------------PMLV
Carlos Lee-------11.4-------------8.1
Hunter Pence---10.5-------------9.6
Lance Berkman--3.8------------- -1.0
Mike Lamb------3.3--------------N/A
Mark Loretta----3.2--------------N/A
Luke Scott-------0.3------------ -1.2
Brad Ausmus--- -1.3------------ -0.4
Morgan Ensberg -3.7----------- -4.5
Craig Biggio---- -3.9------------ -5.8
Jason Lane---- -5.9------------ -6.5

Adam Everett -13.8----------- -14.0

There is PMLVr which is a the rate at which a player is creating these runs above his average replacement where .000 would be the average PMLVr. Utilizing this we can see who should probably be getting more plate appearances.

Player--------------MLVr---------PMLVr
Hunter Pence--------.456-----------.418
Carlos Lee-----------.240-----------.170
Mike Lamb----------.178------------N/A
Mark Loretta--------.146-----------N/A
Lance Berkman------.080---------- -.020
Luke Scott ----------.011----------- -.038
Brad Ausmus------- -.039---------- -.014
Craig Biggio--------- -.087---------- -.129
Morgan Ensberg---- -.115---------- -.140
Jason Lane--------- -.328---------- -.364

Adam Everett------ -.365---------- -.369

Looking at these numbers, forces one to scratch their heads and perhaps feel a feeling that is probably familiar to Astros fans lately: disgust. Clearly, Lance needs to start pulling his weight for us (that could be literally too given our SLG/LBS stat), because though he is contributing postively to us (MLV and MLVr), he is below the expected rate for 1B (PMLV and PMLVr). Craig needs to hurry up and hit 3000 because we are eating a big hole having to keep Lamb and Loretta out of the line up. Also, maybe we can give Brad Ausmus a break, he's not that far below the mark for what you'd expect from an average catcher.

Obviously these stats are offensive only. One has to wonder though, does Adam Everetts defenisve prowess offset a loss of 13.8 runs at a rate of -.365 a game? That is up for everyone to debate. It appears though, there is a lot the Astros could be doing to maxmize their offense in order to support a pitching staff who is carrying their weight (I am already trying figure out how to make a Pitching State/LBS). Also, consider that when the term average is used with these stats for positions, the term average denotes some who is above what the actual league average is -- it's a theoretical average player.

Source: http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=226464

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2 comments:

bagsandbidge said...

I am really sorry, I have tried and tried to make these tables easier to look at, but blogspot doesn't really give us that many tools to work with.

Anonymous said...

why don't you just write this sh*t in mandarin a**hole, try having a blog for people who really love the astros I mean really love them like want to F*CK the whole team seriously your blog blows you should write for the chronicle and that justice faggot