Roadtrip!

As per a request by a reader, Stephen and I will outline who we think will end up on the Astros 25 man roster this upcoming season. Phil Garner isn’t sure if he is going to opt to have 11 or 12 pitchers on the roster, so we will include a roster for each option. Expect this on Tuesday. For the time being, however, with six days remaining before the MLB season opens on Sunday, and with Spring Training closing out for most clubs on Wednesday, we figure it’s as good a time as ever to take a look at the divisional races around the league. And, showing our obvious east coast bias, we’ll start with two AL East teams: the Yankees and Blue Jays.

New York Yankees:

2006: 93-69 Record

This organization exemplifies the win at all costs attitude of American professional sports. Only the Yankees would consider a six year World Series drought a failure. Oh, and did we mention that they made it to the Fall Classic in 2001 and 2003? They may have lost, but they were there, that’s a still something to hang your hat on (ask any Astros fan). Well this year has seen the Bronx Bombers make a concerted effort to return to the formula that helped them win four World Series titles in five years. Petulant slugger Gary Sheffield was traded to the Detroit Tigers for a couple minor league prospects. After many offers, the Yankees resisted trading rising star Phillip Hughes. In addition, that tall lefty…Randy Johnson?, yea that’s his name, is gone as well, traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for more minor leaguers from one of baseball’s best farm systems. GM Brian Cashman was not able to land Dice-K, bu the was able to land another Japanese import, Kei Igawa for a more “modest” $46 million dollars.

But let’s not fool ourselves- youth is just a concept at this point for the Yankees. The season will hinge on a starting pitching staff featuring a 19 game winner whose K/9 rate makes the majority of baseball prognosticators wary (Chien-Ming Wang), Andy Pettitte, a man whose story needs not be retold to any Astros fan. The one stable force on their starting rotation is Mike Mussina. The Moose has been a perennial 15 games plus winner, while missing few starts in his four seasons wearing pinstripes. We’ve already talked a bit about Igawa, a man who will be asked to perform on baseball’s biggest stage in his first year in the majors (the American majors, that is). However, the most questions remain with Carl Pavano. Pavano has made the back-page of more New York papers than anyone outside of Madonna. After signing a huge contract before the 2006 season, Pavano was only able to get 10 decisions this past season, compiling a 4-6 record. Between Pavano and Igawa, these are the men whose performances will determine whether or not the Yankees will be parading down a borough near you come October.

Toronto Blue Jays:

2006: 87-75 Record

When prompted this spring about what it will take to break their post-season drought, catcher Gregg Zaun was rather matter of fact in his response. “If Doc [pitcher Roy Halladay] and A.J. [Burnett] are both five games over .500, which we expect, and the rest of our guys pitch .500 ball, that should get us to around 92 wins,” he said. “That ought to be good enough for the playoffs.” It ought to be, Gregg. But as we all know, nothing in life is fair, and such is life for the Blue Jays. They boast a top tier starter (Roy Halladay), hitters who can mash with the best of them (Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas to name a few), and a rising closer in B.J. Ryan who had as successful a year as any in the game in 2006, sorry Mariano. The team was not able to re-sign 3rd starter Ted Lilly, who signed with the Cubs, nor was it able to come to terms with Gil Meche, who eventually landed with the Royals. However, General Manager J.P. Riccardi plucked DH Frank Thomas from mentor Billy Bean in Oakland, and signed starting pitchers John Thomson and Tomo Ohka to close out the backend of their rotation.
It is here, though, that the Jays biggest deficiency comes to the forefront. Despite the popular thought that the AL East is all about the bats, it’s the discrepancy in starting pitching that is the difference between the three teams expect to challenge for the crown in the division. Sure, Halladay and the oft-injured A.J. Burnett can hold their own against any 1-2 in the game, but after that, well…..

Yankees: Mussina, Pavano, Igawa
Red Sox: Dice-K, Tim Wakefield, Julian Tavarez
Blue Jays: Gustavo Chacin, Thomson, Ohka

The Jays do not stack up against this group. Notice the All Star games, playoff appearances, and World Series victories for the Yanks and Sox at the backs of their rotations. As much as I want to root for a team like Toronto, objectively, they just don’t have the tools to overtake either of these teams. They did manage to finish second last year (overtaking the Red Sox), but with the additions and probably improved health of both of those teams, the frustrations of Jays fans will be as high as a chopper off of the Rogers Centre Astroturf.

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